I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%,
900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are addin g up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damn ed if we do, damned if we don't.
So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many busines ses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is be cause people aren't following the orders.
The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated ever yone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other co untries do the same thing?
What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?
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Rick C.
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The reason is offshoring, which used to be advertised as a great idea. In result a country that was able to send people to the Moon can no longer produce rubber gloves or cloth face masks on its own. Marvelous. Same in the EU.
It's time to redefine alliances with China in the center, the existing solutions have simply failed recently.
The virus is continuing to spread despite the stay at home orders. The lack of PPE is certainly not helping.
Given the number of already infected people and their almost uniform geographical distribution, we have already lost the battle of stopping the disease. Hence the governments are releasing the ineffective lockdown orders. You and I are going to be infected, sooner or later.
and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?
I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't e ven need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.
The lock down in China worked a charm. Copious testing has worked in South Korea and Norway. There's no reason why we can't make these things work h ere in the US and throughout Europe.
I can only think that no small part of this is the fact that the leaders at the highest levels of our government are not taking the disease seriously. They can't even be bothered with wearing masks.
This actually reminds me a bit of the AIDS epidemic. People were in denial about the possibility of catching the disease and passing it on and so it did grow rapidly. It took years and a lot of education to get it on a down ward slope by people being responsible.
Not me. I can wait it out. Once everyone else is back to work sharing the burden and the virus, I will be able to get nearly everything I want by ma il order. Then I can wait it out and let everyone else deal with this dise ase. One thing the common person has right is that it will eventually burn itself out. It seems to have a higher natural infection rate than the flu and will impact much more of the population than the flu does.
The only real concern is whether it will mutate enough so it produces a new ly infectious strain in months or years that sweeps us again. Then I'd be worried. There's no indication this disease will be any easier to make a v accine for than the flu.
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Rick C.
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PE and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?
even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enoug h below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.
Lock down, vigorous contact tracing, and rigorous isolation of anybody who might have been infected for 14 days after the possible contact.
There was a New Scientist article that put a lot more weight on the contact tracing than the lock down - though the lock down makes contact tracing a lot easier.
The current Australian program - which does seem to be working pretty well
- has put a lot of effort into contact tracing.
why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.
But the fact that they didn't work in Italy, Spain and the UK does demonstr ate that it's all too easy to do it badly - or at least not well enough.
at the highest levels of our government are not taking the disease seriousl y. They can't even be bothered with wearing masks.
Neither do ours. There aren't enough masks around for people who really nee d them, so they go where they are most effective.
al about the possibility of catching the disease and passing it on and so i t did grow rapidly. It took years and a lot of education to get it on a do wnward slope by people being responsible.
he burden and the virus, I will be able to get nearly everything I want by mail order. Then I can wait it out and let everyone else deal with this di sease. One thing the common person has right is that it will eventually bu rn itself out. It seems to have a higher natural infection rate than the f lu and will impact much more of the population than the flu does.
The flu seems to infect everybody, but people are immune to some strains be cause they have caught them before and been vaccinated against others. Covi d-19 is a bit too new for that.
ewly infectious strain in months or years that sweeps us again. Then I'd b e worried. There's no indication this disease will be any easier to make a vaccine for than the flu.
The flu is easy enough to make a vaccine for, but it mutates fast enough to evade the antibodies against last seasons flu. The scheme to make a vaccin e produces lots of copies of just the receptor-binding segment of the coron a virus spike protein - which is conserved - promises a vaccine that will i mmunise against most strains of the virus.
There's no guarantee that it will deliver. A similar scheme to attack the c onserved receptor-binding element of flu virus has been around for while, b ut hasn't delivered a broad spectrum vaccine yet.
, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are add ing up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are da mned if we do, damned if we don't.
Consolidation of work into Big Business. If there were a dozen processing operations with 80 workers each, a disease could shut down five of 'em when 40% get ill, and we'd still have capacity.
Urban concentration of people requires a certain lowering of personal-space , and so does economic intolerance of independent subunits. It can work and be eff icient (high-tech electronics mainly needs a variety of subcontractors locally ace ssible) or it can be a wrenching disconnect (higher authority 'managing' teachers h as resulted in some unhealthy conflicts, like the over-test-centric No Child Left Behin d fiascos).
Everyone knew the risk of densification in regards to pubic health, and we knew it would strike randomly as a health crisis. Now, it has. The 'efficiency' of high concentrations of interconnected workers comes at exactly this cost in... reliability of the overall society during a pandemi c.
Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.
Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet, for example?
And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all over again. In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally, which is not happening nowadays. Every single country pursues its own unique attempts, sometimes they are even stealing the PPE belonging to their neighbours to supplement their own stock.
Provided that the Chinese reports are, errr..., not using creatively the concept of truth...
In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening. On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?
Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.
No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are here to stay. Forever or for at least a very long time. The second strike is expected to hit us this autumn.
Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will perish. We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your population and still growing. Sorry.
Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed around silently.
It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and stomp out new seeds.
In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally,
Some people propose two years.
30% antibody positive in some places.
Even in California, random population antibody tests are coming back in the 4% range.
Colorado, sparsely populated, has tests coming in at the 7% to 18% range.
Too bad that we don't have data from past years' winter colds and flu. This pattern may not in fact be novel.
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I don't see why. Surely a correct statement would be "The more we lock down, the *same* our population is fertile for reinfection.
Yup :( Just as there are for measles and bubonic plague.
Hopefully the reasons we don't panic about such things can, /in time/, be replicated.
You don't need to, any more than you have to stop all cases of measles.
The balance is still poorly understood and is being investigated.
Not the sane people.
There are, hopefully, halfway houses, e.g. relax the reimpose when infections pick up again. We lack the detailed information about the infection dynamics to be able to define the exact relax/reimpose triggers.
As I noted whe lockdowns were imposed, it will be very interesting to observe what happens when various lockdowns around the world are relaxed. Not rocket science, but such thoughts seem to be more forward thinking than many people's :(
My understanding is that the selectivity and specificity of the current tests leaves a lot to be desired. I'm also certain that there are political and commercial interests that will be heavily promoting certain courses of action, using some disreputable tactics.
Hence I regard such figures as untrustworthy at the moment.
Some aspects of the pattern aren't particularly novel, but the seriousness of an infection certainly is.
I've got several strikes against me as it is: I'm male, over 60, possibly a relevant heart issue, I /don't/ smoke(!?), hypertension controlled by ACE drugs. Hence I sure as hell hope I don't catch it. If I do, there's an uncomfortable probability it will kill me (or worse, cripple me).
As I said to my daughter, I'll count the next year a success if we are both alive at the end of it.
, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are add ing up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are da mned if we do, damned if we don't.
A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow. I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night. Umm.
George H.
ct that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many busin esses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to sh ut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.
to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated ev eryone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?
, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are add ing up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are da mned if we do, damned if we don't.
ct that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many busin esses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to sh ut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.
to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated ev eryone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?
Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality to quote a number without giving its error bars. Some of the quoted results are only good for upper limit determinations, allow zero antibody positive as possible.
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