A 50/50 shot

The government, churches, NGOs and individuals in my state have done a good job of containing the disease. So far.

For quite some time, the only case we had was a pastor who returned from the Netherlands on March 16, just before the lockdown. He's fully recovered but is still in home quarantine.

Recently the state government started arranging transportation for our people stranded in other places as well as for outsiders who've been stranded in our state. They are sent straight from the points of arrival to quarantine centres. Out of the eight thousand or so arrivals so far, 22 people have tested positive for COVID-19, most of them asymptomatic. These are taken to a treatment centre.

Donations continue to pour in - in cash, home-made masks, PPEs, gloves, food. Villagers donate vegetables to towns. Towns people donate cash and other materials to villages.

Truck and bus drivers who bring in essential commodities from other states are treated like heroes, provided with food and shelter and presented gifts.

My state has three interstate and two international borders. All are guarded 24x7 by volunteers helped by the police.

The estimated number of all humans who ever lived is 107 billion.

..... Phil

Can you name one individual who has lived for over two hundred years?

Methuselah doesn't count for obvious reasons.

Are you even capable of logical thought?

The statistics are abundantly clear. If you are over 75 then you are at very serious risk of harm and if you are 45 or under and healthy you could be very unlucky and die of it but the risk is in the same ball park as seasonal flu for most young healthy and fit individuals. The in between group from 45 to 75 are definitely at risk increasing with age.

It isn't yet known why a very few healthy people react so badly but they are trawling the genomic database to try and figure it out.

I think it is being taken seriously but there comes a point where you cannot continue to have almost no manufacturing industry running.

I expect the UK and USA to do un-lockdown badly. Here at least they claim to be following the scientific advice but it was notable last night that no scientists were prepared to stand next to the hapless health minister presiding over this fiasco (usually there are two).

There will always be a very few really sad cases like this but they are the exception and not the rule. A bit like the National Lottery the emotional message "It could be YOU" is very powerful but misleading.

Shopping in person is no fun at all any more - endless queues. Only worthwhile going out for stuff that you absolutely need.

Online shopping is tolerable but delivery delays can be long.

eally old people die a lot. People throughout history have died. People w ho get sick sometimes die. But is it inevitable?

roughout all of history! So clearly death is not inevitable. Otherwise ho w could there be so many people alive?

virus when trying to understand the statistics. In other words, often peop le simply don't understand how to view the numbers. The simple fact is thi s is a tragedy for the 400,000 people who have already died of this disease and the many, many more who will continue to die because we can't seem to take it seriously.

he numbers in the US have stopped declining and may be turning upward. Man y of the US states that are opening up are now seeing resurgences of the gr owth of this disease when we should be pushing to lower these rates dramati cally.

duce the mortality and morbidity of this disease and support the economy at the same time, deal with the disease! I keep thinking of Nick Cordero who at 41 was infected so badly he lost a leg and now, after weeks of sufferin g, his overall health has deteriorated to the point his doctors have told h is family to say goodbye.

he plague. We should be fighting. But instead too many people prefer to s hop.

Rickitty,

would you come out and say that the BLM protests and march to DC and the ri ots need to stop and stop now?

Here's a reasonable summary of some aspects of the UK track and trace plan. It includes "I don't know how to rate the ignorant stupidity of this comment [by the deputy chief medial officer] The satirical magazine Private Eye, however, managed.

The private eye comment is pretty obvious (i.e. I thought of the flaws) but I must admit I didn't think of "Karen from Marketing"...

How track and trace works once lockdown ends - in full

• A contact tracer will text or email a person who has tested positive with coronavirus

• That person will assume it?s some sort of scam and delete the message

• The Contact tracer will then phone the person

• The person will block the caller, assuming the unknown number is one of those automated calls wanting to know if they?ve recently been in a car accident

• The Contact tracer finally gets through 36 hours later to the person, who has meanwhile spread the virus widely, to ask who they have been in Contact with, so those people can be made to self-isolate for fourteen days

• The person with coronavirus includes a number of people they don?t like in that list, forcing them to go into two-week quarantine

• And conveniently forgets to mention Karen from Marketing with whom they?re having an affair

• Er...

• That?s it.

Right. That claim is so obviously bogus it's surprising that it even survives as a rumor among the innumerate.

Amazon Prime delivers to me fast, sometimes next day and usual within two days. I got annoyed that I couldn't find the right short and long matched-length SMA cables, so I ordered a bunch in a couple of minutes. Ditto connectors, freeze spray, whiteboard markers, chocolate truffles, SFP modules, light bulbs, proto boards, epoxy, function generators.

Most likely, a statistical argument can be made from the Copernican axiom (no privileged frames of reference) that the timespan of the human race and by implication human lifespans are time-limited, i.e. death is at least currently inevitable.

That is to say if the human race, or humans themselves, were destined to be physically immortal it is highly statistically unlikely so many humans would find ourselves at this particular point in history, at the relatively young ages that we are, as the first century after high-technology civilization began is a highly privileged and unlikely "reference" for us to be in when talking hypothetically in terms of geological time, millions or billions of years.

Or in other words if we, the people here on this newsgroup, are among the first say 0.000000001% of humans to ever live it is very statistically unlikely that we, specifically, are the ones here to discuss it and that it wasn't someone else. But here we are.

I stand corrected. Apparently I believed one of those popular myths.

Interesting that you didn't comment on the rest of the post.

really old people die a lot. People throughout history have died. People who get sick sometimes die. But is it inevitable?

throughout all of history! So clearly death is not inevitable. Otherwise how could there be so many people alive?

navirus when trying to understand the statistics. In other words, often pe ople simply don't understand how to view the numbers. The simple fact is t his is a tragedy for the 400,000 people who have already died of this disea se and the many, many more who will continue to die because we can't seem t o take it seriously.

the numbers in the US have stopped declining and may be turning upward. M any of the US states that are opening up are now seeing resurgences of the growth of this disease when we should be pushing to lower these rates drama tically.

reduce the mortality and morbidity of this disease and support the economy at the same time, deal with the disease! I keep thinking of Nick Cordero w ho at 41 was infected so badly he lost a leg and now, after weeks of suffer ing, his overall health has deteriorated to the point his doctors have told his family to say goodbye.

the plague. We should be fighting. But instead too many people prefer to shop.

I don't see where you mentioned your state's name. I want to say you are s omewhere in Russia, but I might be confusing you with someone else.

You know the world is upside-down when Pat Robertson seems far more sensible and lucid than the President, Joe Biden, or Nancy Pelosi

Some countries started early and peaked, and now have new-case rates a small fraction below peak, western europe especially. Some, like Brazil and India, are still on the up-slope and are adding a spike to the world curve. Testing density matters a lot too.

I'd guess that big countries with widely-spaced populations would have the broadest case curves. That does seem to be the pattern.

It's the state of Mizoram in the eastern corner of India, sandwiched between Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma). It's not just an administrative division. It has little in common with the rest of the country. It's the size of Israel, with a population of about 1.5 million.

n really old people die a lot. People throughout history have died. Peopl e who get sick sometimes die. But is it inevitable?

throughout all of history! So clearly death is not inevitable. Otherwise how could there be so many people alive?

onavirus when trying to understand the statistics. In other words, often p eople simply don't understand how to view the numbers. The simple fact is this is a tragedy for the 400,000 people who have already died of this dise ase and the many, many more who will continue to die because we can't seem to take it seriously.

d the numbers in the US have stopped declining and may be turning upward. Many of the US states that are opening up are now seeing resurgences of the growth of this disease when we should be pushing to lower these rates dram atically.

reduce the mortality and morbidity of this disease and support the economy at the same time, deal with the disease! I keep thinking of Nick Cordero who at 41 was infected so badly he lost a leg and now, after weeks of suffe ring, his overall health has deteriorated to the point his doctors have tol d his family to say goodbye.

e the plague. We should be fighting. But instead too many people prefer t o shop.

I literally have no idea how Larkin can look at the data he is citing and d raw the conclusions he is drawing. He cites India as one of the countries that are spreading infection slowly and then says it is because of low popu lation density!!! India is among the most dense populations in the world!

When ranked by total infections per capita, India is 144th and the US is 12 th. The US population density is 36 per km^2, India is 464 per km^2 rankin g 28th in the world with the 2nd largest population just behind China.

So his proposed correlation sounds good except for all the cases where is i t wrong, very clearly wrong.

What is wrong with that guy that he can't accept data at all and insists in applying his personal slant to everything he sees?

The places that peaked early had a peak because they took measures that cut the spread of infection. The peak infection rate is not because of someth ing natural about the disease. The infection peaks when the measures to co mbat the disease reach the point where the infection rate drops below 1.0. Unfortunately, in the US we are fighting this battle the way McClellan fou ght the Civil war. Unwilling to ever fully commit his troops, he would fig ht tentatively, failing to ever deal the enemy a significant blow allowing them to persist and thrive.

To win that war took the courage of the President to remove a very popular military leader and put in charge someone who was willing to do what was ne cessary to actually fight and win the war.

In the US and many other countries we could have taken the measures needed to suppress this infection. Instead we took a page from McClellan's book a nd fought half way. Now we are seeing and end to the slowly dropping infec tion rate trend in the US and the rate of infections may be rising.

The one thing Lincoln knew he didn't want was a slow, lingering war that wo uld sap the will of the people. In this case it only took three months for the losers in the fight to cry for their mommies and beg for a surrender.

en really old people die a lot. People throughout history have died. Peop le who get sick sometimes die. But is it inevitable?

d throughout all of history! So clearly death is not inevitable. Otherwis e how could there be so many people alive?

ronavirus when trying to understand the statistics. In other words, often people simply don't understand how to view the numbers. The simple fact is this is a tragedy for the 400,000 people who have already died of this dis ease and the many, many more who will continue to die because we can't seem to take it seriously.

nd the numbers in the US have stopped declining and may be turning upward. Many of the US states that are opening up are now seeing resurgences of th e growth of this disease when we should be pushing to lower these rates dra matically.

y reduce the mortality and morbidity of this disease and support the econom y at the same time, deal with the disease! I keep thinking of Nick Cordero who at 41 was infected so badly he lost a leg and now, after weeks of suff ering, his overall health has deteriorated to the point his doctors have to ld his family to say goodbye.

ke the plague. We should be fighting. But instead too many people prefer to shop.

re somewhere in Russia, but I might be confusing you with someone else.

Yes, I remember you talking about that before. So the central government o f India is not making your rules for fighting this disease? Here the centr al government has the ability to coordinate and facilitate, but it would be a stretch for them to impose federal rule because of the infection.

Unfortunately, the federal government we have is intent on creating conflic t rather than taking effective measures and so our infection rate is high a nd not dropping to levels were we can resume our lives without fear of the disease.

It's good that you can not only restrict transportation with neighboring co untries, but neighboring states. So it seems this is working for you since you've only had one infection. How about the economic impact?

The short story "The Sentinel" which evolved into "2001" begins with, "Behind every human stands 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio of the dead to the living." The population was about 2 billion then.

No comment.

eally old people die a lot. People throughout history have died. People w ho get sick sometimes die. But is it inevitable?

roughout all of history! So clearly death is not inevitable. Otherwise ho w could there be so many people alive?

virus when trying to understand the statistics. In other words, often peop le simply don't understand how to view the numbers. The simple fact is thi s is a tragedy for the 400,000 people who have already died of this disease and the many, many more who will continue to die because we can't seem to take it seriously.

he numbers in the US have stopped declining and may be turning upward. Man y of the US states that are opening up are now seeing resurgences of the gr owth of this disease when we should be pushing to lower these rates dramati cally.

duce the mortality and morbidity of this disease and support the economy at the same time, deal with the disease! I keep thinking of Nick Cordero who at 41 was infected so badly he lost a leg and now, after weeks of sufferin g, his overall health has deteriorated to the point his doctors have told h is family to say goodbye.

he plague. We should be fighting. But instead too many people prefer to s hop.

What BULLSHIT! Are you SERIOUS?? The total number of people who have ever l ived is 107B vs 7B alive today.