Importance Of Testing And Lost Opportunity For Early, Effective Mitigation In U.S.

Coronavirus was already in U.S. and circulating in huge numbers before resp onsible officials in government even knew it existed. The lesson learned is don't even think about lifting lockdown until adequate testing surveillanc e is in place. Why? Because second wave can be orders of magnitude worse th an the first one.

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What is the practical value of testing? How would we use it?

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

Am 12.05.20 um 19:39 schrieb John Larkin:

Take South Korea as a blueprint. That was easy.

Reply to
Gerhard Hoffmann

Will they test and contact trace forever? What's the end game?

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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Reply to
John Larkin

Yes, of course. That's where TB has been, for decades. And other diseases as well. Why would you expect an end?

Reply to
whit3rd

Viruses like this go away, usually in the summer, but they go away. Is Korea setting itself up to be the last country that the virus can flourish in, with zero herd immunity?

Will they test and trace and quarantine for every future cold and flu, forever? Will every airline passenger arrival be quarantined for two weeks, forever? That won't be good for business.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

Am 12.05.20 um 20:25 schrieb John Larkin:

At least, they don't have truckloads of decomposing corpses in the untertakers backyard.

Reply to
Gerhard Hoffmann

There are no other viruses like this. Even Trump has stopped claiming it will just "go away when the weather gets warmer" - and even he now understands it is not a cold or flu.

Reply to
David Brown

Well, there has never been a coronavirus that got this much attention or testing or that shut down the world economy.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

CV deaths in the US have peaked around 2K per day and are less now, about 1K recently. The normal death rate in the US averages about 8.5K per day in the winter. Undertakers aren't usually super busy.

The lockdown has greatly reduced flu infections, over 10:1, and deaths from that too.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

It's too late. You can't.

RL

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legg

I don't know how to respond to someone so in ignorance of the facts. Someo ne had a chart with weekly death rates of influenza. The numbers actually didn't change that much from month to month with a slight increase (~40%) i n the winter. But the idea that "viruses like this go away" is simply wron g and has been explained to Larkin many times. The fact that the 1918 pand emic did not "go away" in the summer but rather slowed down only to rear ba ck up again does not mean anything to Larkin... or Trump.

International arrivals will need to be quarantined as long as there is sign ificant risk of spreading the disease. This isn't even debilitating for bu siness. It's just inconvenient.

Someone tell me that Larkin isn't this stupid! Either that or his is just a ugly, nasty troll.

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  Rick C. 

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Ricky C

responsible officials in government even knew it existed. The lesson learne d is don't even think about lifting lockdown until adequate testing surveil lance is in place. Why? Because second wave can be orders of magnitude wors e than the first one.

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Pure nonsense.

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  Rick C. 

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Ricky C

Some kinds of testing could be used to protect old people in nursing homes. Make sure that staff and visitors are not contageous.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

responsible officials in government even knew it existed. The lesson learn ed is don't even think about lifting lockdown until adequate testing survei llance is in place. Why? Because second wave can be orders of magnitude wor se than the first one.

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The only problem is that no test will do that. The standard nucleic acid t ests may not show an infection in the most early stages of infection yet yo u can spread the disease.

Not many places can even do testing on a daily basis. You would need to te st everyone before they entered the facility. Even that does not assure th e disease is not carried on inanimate surfaces.

What can work much better is to lower the rate of infection generally and e liminate it. In the US parts of Louisiana are the poster child for effecti vely fighting this disease. While a few counties in the state are still ra mping up infection rates, most have dropping infection rates. In particula r the greater New Orleans area is seeing infection rates of less than 10% o f the peak, some counties well less than 10%. It's amazing. Whatever they are doing, we all need to follow their example.

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  Rick C. 

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Ricky C

e responsible officials in government even knew it existed. The lesson lear ned is don't even think about lifting lockdown until adequate testing surve illance is in place. Why? Because second wave can be orders of magnitude wo rse than the first one.

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They had 27 new cases yesterday and 35 the day before, after about a monthy with very few news cases, all of them travellers coming in from overseas.

So they will test frequently - but only arriving travellers and their conta cts, and contact trace the ones who get away. It isn't a lot of work. Their death rate is 5 ppm so far, and likely to stay there.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

There's always smallpox, and polio is almost eradicated. Religious anti-vaxers are have slowed down the progress to a polio-free world, but it's still in sight.

We may get there with measles, eventually.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

Yes - because there have been no viruses like this one, and no pandemics like this one.

The fact that it is a Corona virus, and therefore genetically close to other Corona viruses, is entirely irrelevant. What matters is how /this/ virus behaves, not that some other Corona viruses have been less infectious in summer months.

Reply to
David Brown

Sure, every pandemic virus is different. They have to be.

Do we know that?

There have certainly been influenzas that were far worse, but didn't provoke the reactions we have now.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

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Reply to
jlarkin

False. Also, unclear.

The 1918 flu might be a worse pendemic (we won't know for a few years), but that one DID provoke almost the sme 'reactions we have now".

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whit3rd

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