Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022

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"Coronavirus vaccines -- once approved and distributed widely to the public
 -- won?t be a ?knockout punch? that eradicates the
 virus, he said. Instead, he expects the process to take time and anticipat
es a 70% effectiveness rate for an approved vaccine."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201022/fauci-masks-social-distancing-like
ly-until-2022

I wonder if the 70% effectiveness anticipated for the vaccine is influenced
 by all the money that's been spent on them. The history of immunizing agai
nst lower respiratory track infections is just not that good.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/24/7/17-1699_article

The effectiveness of the mask is beyond 99.9% and it doesn't cost nearly as
 much. People just aren't interested in something that doesn't cost a lot o
f money and requires a little bit of discipline.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Saturday, October 24, 2020 at 1:50:13 PM UTC-4, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com  
wrote:
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ic -- won?t be a ?knockout punch? that eradicates t
he virus, he said. Instead, he expects the process to take time and anticip
ates a 70% effectiveness rate for an approved vaccine."
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kely-until-2022
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ed by all the money that's been spent on them. The history of immunizing ag
ainst lower respiratory track infections is just not that good.
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as much. People just aren't interested in something that doesn't cost a lot
 of money and requires a little bit of discipline.

None of these masks will be 99.9% effective when worn.  It is virtually imp
ossible to achieve that level of seal against the skin with a simple constr
uction.  So 95% effective measured is probably as good as 99.9% measured wh
en it comes to real world conditions.  

What's more important is that masks offer somewhat less protection when not
 worn on the face at all.  And I personally believe it is even more importa
nt to understand that it is even MORE important to realize that no mask or  
social distancing or any of the other measures will assure that you are pro
tected.  The benefit of taking protective measures is in reducing the rate  
of infection over the population as a whole.  

The bottom line is you can't live in a bubble... unless you live in a bubbl
e.  The best way to fight this disease is to practice the best self protect
ive measures you can and allow the disease to spread at an ever reducing ra
te until it can be managed with contact tracing... and actually do effectiv
e contact tracing.  

MD and VA are presently not in the group of states with significantly risin
g infection rates.  The infection and death rates are not as high as many s
tates, but they are higher than many countries with the similar populations
.  South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the U
S has in one day.  

Why can't we learn from those who are making it work???  

--  

  Rick C.

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Sunday, October 25, 2020 at 7:30:26 AM UTC+11, Ricketty C wrote:
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m wrote:  

<snip>

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ing infection rates. The infection and death rates are not as high as many  
states, but they are higher than many countries with the similar population
s. South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the U
S has in one day.  
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It's called "American exceptionalism" and depends on the idea that America  
is unique - which it was at one point, until everybody else noticed it was  
doing remarkably well and copied the good bits. They also rejected some of  
the founding tax evaders less useful innovations  - the executive presidenc
y and the electoral college come to mind. American exceptionalists think th
at the grab-bag of innovations that founding tax evaders put together was s
ome kind of complete prescription for a perfect society and pay no attentio
n to anything that's done in the rest-of-the-world, which isn't a perfect c
opy of what they've got, and correspondingly irrelevant.

It's the worst kind of magical thinking, but remarkably popular in America.
 James Arthur articulates it here from time to time. John Doe expresses muc
h the same opinion rather less elegantly. They are both nuts.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/24/2020 9:19 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
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"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the  
fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas,"  
White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State  
of the Union."

 From the "Things everyone knows"-department. By "we get" in this  
context he likely means White House staff, I suppose.

"What we need to do is make sure that we have the proper mitigation  
factors, whether it's therapies or vaccines or treatments to make sure  
that people don't die from this," Meadows said.

By "people" he means "people who matter."


Yes, they engage in magical thinking a lot, they fully believe that so  
long as the right people (themselves) are able to stay in power to  
continue making none of the right decisions, the overall consequences  
will still be better than if someone other than them had made some of  
the right ones.

The old joke used to be "You can always count on an American to do the  
right thing after all other options are exhausted" and they're out to  
prove that old saw wrong, you can always just start recycling exhausted  
options.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Saturday, October 24, 2020 at 9:19:37 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
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com wrote:
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ising infection rates. The infection and death rates are not as high as man
y states, but they are higher than many countries with the similar populati
ons. South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the
 US has in one day.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
a is unique - which it was at one point, until everybody else noticed it wa
s doing remarkably well and copied the good bits. They also rejected some o
f the founding tax evaders less useful innovations - the executive presiden
cy and the electoral college come to mind. American exceptionalists think t
hat the grab-bag of innovations that founding tax evaders put together was  
some kind of complete prescription for a perfect society and pay no attenti
on to anything that's done in the rest-of-the-world, which isn't a perfect  
copy of what they've got, and correspondingly irrelevant.  
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a. James Arthur articulates it here from time to time. John Doe expresses m
uch the same opinion rather less elegantly. They are both nuts.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

There you go again with more of your pretense of wisdom and expertise you d
on't have. The exceptionalism bullshit is a continuation of the original Am
erica First movement which was originally grounded in eugenics and fascism.
  This all leads back to the untold story of 400 years of white trash again
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_Committee
The isolation campaign was just a ruse. They wanted a complete Nazi takeove
r of Europe.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/24/2020 4:30 PM, Ricketty C wrote:
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"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the  
fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas,"  
White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State  
of the Union."

 From the "Things everyone knows"-department. By "we get" in this  
context he likely means White House staff, I suppose.

"What we need to do is make sure that we have the proper mitigation  
factors, whether it's therapies or vaccines or treatments to make sure  
that people don't die from this," Meadows said.

By "people" he means "people who matter."

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Sunday, October 25, 2020 at 11:42:24 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
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Are you saying that you won't get any of it?

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Monday, October 26, 2020 at 8:21:00 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wro
te:
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e  
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Bitrex is doing a useful job, and making money. He probably will some spill
-over after the really rich have been looked after.

Michael Terrell is even further down the pecking order.

And the way to end the epidemic is to make sure that nobody at all is infec
ted, and the Trump administration can't imagine that this is possible (thou
gh some other countries have managed it), and certainly aren't going to spe
nd enough money or slow down the economy enough to let this happen.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/25/2020 9:42 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
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Terrell is an eliminationalist - no eliminationalist would ever dream  
his favored group of goons would ever put him on the hit list  
accidentally, much less on purpose.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Sunday, October 25, 2020 at 9:51:59 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
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e  
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ate  
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e  
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pill-over after the really rich have been looked after.  
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nfected, and the Trump administration can't imagine that this is possible (
though some other countries have managed it), and certainly aren't going to
 spend enough money or slow down the economy enough to let this happen.  
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   Yet another of your sick fantasies. A coward posting under a fake name,  
and 'from' a non-existent domain name.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/25/2020 5:20 PM, Michael Terrell wrote:
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Ancient Chinese proverb: Man who wants to die for his country often  
given job appropriate to his skillset.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Sunday, October 25, 2020 at 10:01:31 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
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They would have used you as cannon fodder. You would have been a DI's pet project. Make a man out of you, or hound you until you went AWOL. I doubt that you would have survived the first week of Basic.

American proverb: Lead, follow or just get the hell out of the way.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/24/2020 10:50 AM, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:
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I believe the initial criteria was a *50%* effectivity for a vaccine.
And, of course, you have to TAKE it, rely on those around you to also
take it (to address the potential ineffectiveness of your single instance),
hope that there are no adverse side effects (there always are though
hopefully not frequent enough to be an issue), hope that the virus doesn't
mutate in the coming year(s), etc.

And, of course, you may not be medically capable of taking the vaccine!
Thus, truly reliant on "herd immunity" to keep yourself safe (barring
other interventions)

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Our ice cream salesman goobernor (AZ) drank the trump-ade early on.  And,
expressly forbid the democratic mayors of the largest metropolitan areas
in the state from enacting any tougher regulations.

"Arizonans are responsible people and will Do The Right Thing (TmReg)!"

Then, he watched AZ panned in the national press for how poorly it
was handling the outbreak.

"Ooops!  I sure as hell don't want to get tagged as responsible for this
mess -- by my lame restrictions and prohibitions against more stingent
"local" restrictions.  So, I'll let the mayors enact their own safeguards
(yet will avoid taking the "blame" from the denialists for imposing anything
statewide)."

Our infection/mortality rate dropped with the introduction of masks,
social distancing, limited occupancy constraints, etc.  While masks
are mandated in most establishments, there's very little done to
ensure the quality and effectiveness of the masks (folks not covering
their noses, masks that don't seal against the face well and let air
leak out the top/sides, folks still using bandanas, folks using VENTED
N95 masks -- medical facilities won't allow you inside wearing one!  D'uh!)

Then, school came along.  And all of the colleges took the same attitude
as the goobernor "Our students are responsible adults and will Do The
Right Thing" (yeah, like none of them would EVER consider underage
drinking, skipping class, unprotected sex, DUI, etc.  Un-huh!).

And, folks started rationalizing that they could gather in small
groups (backyards) cuz it's just like eating outdoors!  No need
to wear a mask -- just sit 6 feet apart!

(No one has explained to these folks that it's an integration effect;
more time means more transferred virus, regardless of how effective
the distance/masking appear to be!  Spending 4 hours in your backyard,
unmasked, with guests, is probably just as bad as spending many minutes
face-to-face with those same folks!)

And, folks decided that a lexan face shield was just so much BETTER than
a cloth mask!  (who told them this?)

So, the numbers are headed in the wrong direction, again.

I guess I feel sorry for these people, to some extent.  (most are
not suffering financially... retirees, etc.)  But, it's amusing to see
how the same folks who were glued to their cell phones despite the
presence of warm bodies immediately nearby are now, suddenly, CRAVING
personal contact!

I wonder how they would have fared in England during The Blitz?
("I can't stand living in a darkened house with the shades drawn!
I'm going to turn on all the lights and exercise my FREEDOM!!")

OTOH, I only wear a mask when in stores -- and that's very infrequent
(even before the pandemic).  I can't imagine what it would be like
to WORK in those stores and be wearing one all day long!

We're now speculating as to whether our normal influx of Winter Visitors
will manifest, this year.  Or, will they decide they can be "locked in"
back home just as easily as they can, here?  (esp as most of the "free
entertainment" that they rely on to occupy their time is no longer
available.  and, many restaurants have either closed or severely
restricted seating -- even though we can dine outdoors throughout the
winter months).

I wonder how "getting sick" thousands of miles from "home" will figure
into their calculus??

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 2:01 AM, Don Y wrote:



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More like Dachau 1944 but in this alternate history the Germans line  
themselves up to go to their own death camp. I've heard it said that  
history repeats twice, once as tragedy and the second, if not comedy at  
least the ironic version.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 12:17 AM, bitrex wrote:
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I just don't see how folks can have such low tolerances for "inconvenience".

I'm thinking of the people that I *personally* know who deal with "issues"
everyday of their (prepandemic) lives -- missing limbs, TBI, chronic pain,
"disabilities" (blindness, deafness, tremor), death of child, etc. and
somehow manage to persevere for year after year WITH NO REASONABLE END IN
SIGHT!

But, some pansy who can't/won't "suffer" with the INCONVENIENCES of the
pandemic just seems like he/she are in for a really bad time, later in life,
when things usually don't go so well.  And, there's nothing they can do
to affect any change in their "lot"!

(poetic justice will have those around him/her "not carrying" about
his/her particular issues!  :> )

Gotta wonder how many pets that found homes sating the needs of lonely
hosts will find themselves neglected when "mommy/daddy" can return to their
"normal" activities.  (sigh)

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 4:29 AM, Don Y wrote:
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Oh I know something about that. I'm still quite happy here in the land  
of the living most days regardless and I'd prefer to keep it that way.

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Squabbling over masks is scrounging for freedom-pennies when a lot of  
the freedom C-notes were happily tossed in the bin in years prior.

Makes the assumption that what the great multitude of men really want is  
real freedom, too. I mean the real thing. I had my first taste of it in  
my early 30s when I ended up surviving an illness I wasn't supposed to  
survive. I had lost a lot of what I had before, but I did get a second  
chance. Second chance was about all I had too, stuff like that...well  
it's often not like the movies. There aren't flowers or parades. All  
anyone knows for sure is that they don't really have good answers for  
you about what to do next, but they wouldn't presume to tell you what to  
do next, either.

Real freedom means you have to come up with a lot of it on your own. All  
in all it's a mixed bag to be honest, it gives and it takes.



Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 10:55 AM, bitrex wrote:
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Sorry to hear what that implies...

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Yup.  Amusing that they don't make similar claims to exercise their
"freedom" by smoking in nonsmoking areas, parking in handicapped spots,
cut in line (wherever), etc.  They're only willing to "fight" for their
freedom when there is no direct COST to them to do so (e.g., a ticket
for parking violation, getting fired for regularly coming into work late,
etc.)

Yup.  "Real Men"!

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Exactly.  All those Real Men who knuckle under when their boss complains
that they were late for a meeting or coming back from lunch or delivering
a product on schedule... instead of setting out ON THEIR OWN (and taking
responsibility for their own success OR FAILURE into their own hands).

I had a prospective employer, when I was young, describe their dress code
to me... "informally" -- but making it obvious that there IS a dress code.
When I turned down their job offer (from Personnel), he contacted me
afterwards to see if there was something he could do to get me to
change my mind -- more money, vacation, different job assignment, etc.
He was flabbergasted when I told him I wasn't keen on them telling me
how I had to DRESS in order to PROVIDE MY SERVICES to them.  Ooops!

Obviously, how I dress (or DON'T dress) is a "freedom" that I value.
Forcing me into a necktie TO DO ENGINEERING is just vanity/control on
the part of the employer -- who the hell is going to SEE me besides
other employees?

[For the past 3 years, I've worn "the same" T-shirt EVERY day.  Actually,
it's not the same INSTANCE of a T-shirt but the same APPEARANCE of that
T-shirt!   A friend gave me 22 identical T-shirts as a sort of gag.
So, I pulled 7 out of the pile and wear a different (identical!) one
each day.  Then, launder them all on the weekend for use in the week
that follows.  After a year or two, I discard all seven and pull another
seven out of the pile.  I never have to think about "what shirt should
I wear" -- some *trivial* thing that has value, to me!]

OTOH, when I had jobs that required me to represent The Company to The
Public (or to our customer base), I'd dress to the nines -- a DIFFERENT
tailored three-piece suit each day, tie, gold watchchain, plumb bob,
hair coiffed, clean shaven, "dress" shoes polished (no sneakers or cowboy
boots), etc.  All this despite the expectation being a simple sports
jacket and dress pants/shirt (no necktie)

[Employers would wonder who customers were referencing when they spoke
of "that nice young man" -- as I was always in my grubs around the office!]

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 3:05 PM, Don Y wrote:

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Well, there are different standards of masculinity.

Woe to anyone who goes to Japan and believes that just because some men  
there tend to be soft-spoken that this implies anyone is a push-over.  
rather often it's inversely proportional.

I dunno I kinda miss the days when a man's manning was in large part  
evaluated on how many women he slept with and/or whether both parties  
involved enjoyed the experience. Call me old-fashioned.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On 10/26/2020 3:49 PM, bitrex wrote:
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For straight men, at least. Gay men I suppose have their own standards  
of which I'm unfamiliar myself but I have no interest in policing  
anyone's activities in that respect.

Policing what Americans do in the privacy of their own bedrooms sounds  
like a dreadful job, matter of fact, I'm frankly a bit skeptical of  
anyone who says they genuinely want to take that one on.

Re: Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022
On Monday, October 26, 2020 at 3:49:31 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
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To me, you sound like a 'man' who couldn't satisfy any woman.

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