EV to ICE Transition

What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more expensive than an ICE ?

The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few more power transistors are required for charging.

At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be integrated into a single chip.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently being activated or at least planned.

Yes, that's why I mentioned the paradigm shift example of watches in the first place. There will be auto companies (and other, auto related businesses) that simply do not shift weight onto the other foot quickly enough and end up stuck in the mud. The automotive industry has many, many failed companies that get bought up or just disappear. Usually it is the smaller ones, but sometimes the large ones don't keep up and become small ones that are swallowed up.

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in the US is about $40,000 as of 2021

What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric cars that are quite good not a problem.

But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0 market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

I don't think cars aren't quite the same situation as like laptop PCs and cell phones where economies of scale lower the price so much over 10 years that the average consumer is like "Oh you can get one for $500 now? Well I'll buy three instead of one."

It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.

In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for quite a while.

Huh? Automakers like Tesla??? GM has talked about teaming with Bechtel to build their own charging network. They can do pretty much anything they want. The government's interest is in getting them all to cooperate and combine forces. The company's interest is in finding ways of making their cars more appealing. These two things are in conflict.

It's not that way with the Tesla network. They are close enough you can skip one, or two or even three depending on the area you are in. Maybe not so much in North Dakota at the moment, but even in Texas you can go anywhere with less than 130 miles between chargers... other than maybe Lubbock. On the Vegas trip chargers are 50 miles apart. Even your car could make it while skipping a charger... wait, no, maybe not.

I'm not clear on why you say this actually. When I check on Plugshare they show CCS and Chademo at the same locations. What's the problem? Anyone driving an EV they should be driving outside of town can skip one or even two chargers on the route to Las Vegas.

This is a case where the average is not a good number to consider. Better would be the mode or even the median or actually, none of the above. Look at the car that sells the most. Even that is bogus as they group a wide range of styles into one model name with very different pricing.

There's a good reason why you aren't in the auto manufacturing business.

That's the sort of update Tesla should be pushing to cars instead of making fart sounds.

"There is also evidence that suggests the price gap between electric cars and gas-powered cars is closing even more. According to Quartz, the average cost of a new car in June 2019 in the U.S. was $36,600. This was a 2% increase from the year before. However, according to data from Cox Automotive, the average cost of an electric vehicle decreased from $64,300 to $55,600: a 13.4% decrease from the year before. And this drop would be even more pronounced if most manufacturers were not still focusing on making luxury electric vehicles."

I think it's a big leap to extrapolate 64k down to 55k, to 55k down to 35k.

Cuz I think the reason most manufacturers are focusing on luxury EVs is they don't see that much money to be made at the low end, at least not for first-world sale. So long as gas prices stay relatively low the financial motivation isn't there, and Americans buy cars as much on image as they do on pragmatism; the market for bare-bones cars is small outside of fleets. A $25,000 EV is going to have significant compromises made to hit that price point no way around it.

One wonders how high the average sale price of a new car would have to go up until "all numbers are bogus" ceases to be a good explanation. The "car" that sells the most in the US is the Ford F-150 and its average sale price is $47,000. You can buy a $30,000 F-150 but the number they sell a year of the base trim is tiny.

Yeah, I don't have the capacity to be endlessly full of shit the way Elon Musk is, I'm not a good fit for the job, lol.

Tesla-cultism is weird. They really think this guy has got the future of transport all figured out and it's not just a bunch of flailing around.

The one half way up the mountain. Distance is deceptive. Skipping it down hill might be possible, but not going up hill.

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the charging stop.

This could be Tesla's perfect storm:

All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to sell theirs to get gas cars.

Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.

There's not enough lithium to make batteries.

Bitcoin tanks.

Solar City keeps collapsing.

"we will coup whoever we want"

Like I would ever buy any of this guy's products. He can go f*ck a donkey's dickhole.

Oops, wrong link, though the previous is an amusing one. Here's the correct one:

"We will coup whoever we want":

The links are all the same.

When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Something weird going on with Reddit direct image links. Original story: