"In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. Therefore ... in the Old Silurian Period the Mississippi River was upward of one million three hundred thousand miles long ... seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long.
... There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesome returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." -- Mark Twain
Mathematical models come in many forms. The ones that survive are the simple ones that capture the essence of a phenomenon in a non-trivial way. Einstein said that "A scientific theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler." The Mississippi river model fails as it is trivial and far too simple ;>)
Global warming has no agreed upon mathematical model at this time. However, should we not be prudent in any case? Looking at the possible consequences of no corrective actions convinces me.
Sure, but you consider yourself to be intelligent. Everyone else is busy consolidating their loans. If you were able to define the price of a potato then all of these problems would go away. Of course the world population would have to be smaller because the consumers wouldn't have to support the infrastructure required to define what a potato is.
Nature taking her own course would only happen if we stopped using fosil fuels or is that what you have in mind ? unless you consider our actions are also part of mother natures plans ?
The consequences of our contribution to global warming would be much more coastline being lost to the sea and at an earlier time than would otherwise hapen, this possibly includes not only whole islands but whole major cities too many of wich are on the coast. Not to mention the drastic changes in climate wich will have an equaly devastating effect on some agricultural areas, it looks likley this will be less than negated by equaly favourable changes elsewhere.
The timescales of this are subject to to many variables to be accurate but despite the fact that it wil probably happen after im done caring about it but it still worries me that it is virtualy inevitable given the grip of the fosil fuel providers has on major policies in some countries and the amount of money they have to perpetuate this, plus the devloping nations that are going through industrial booms.
The cost per year of losing this much coastline is unestimable, but probably adds up to a lot more than alternatives to using fosil fuel, wich wont last forever anyway so we will at some stage have to incur the cost of finding an alternative anyway.
My plan would be to globaly move all taxation onto fosil fuels. This would surly be suficient an incentive to find and use alternatives (not excluding simply saving energy).
For instance why dont they put smelting plants and foundries in the dessert where its hotter anyway ? like the film 'sahara' with solar collectors to supply the heating energy. ok so the transport energy probably outwieghs the advantage. but we need ideas like this, and untill energy prices rise to think in terms of energy savings rather than cost savings.
It would be interesting to know what Mark Twain was thinking at the time he made that quote since he actually wasn't anti-science. Here's some info on Twain:
"Twain also had a fascination with science and scientific inquiry. He developed a close and lasting friendship with Nikola Tesla, and the two spent quite a bit of time together (in Tesla's laboratory, among other places). Such fascination can be seen in Twain's book A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, which features a time traveler from the America of Twain's day, using his knowledge of science to introduce modern technology to Arthurian England. Twain also patented an improvement in adjustable and detachable straps for garments."
Oh, heavens! I'm not by any means implying that Mr. Twain was anti-science - my reading of his quip, admittedly a bit between the lines, is that he has contempt for those who would take a certain known fact and extrapolate it to such extremes that they could use "science" to make a point, much like the global warmingists are doing, and the ozonists did a few years ago, and so on. :-)
"Environmentalism" has eroded from what we used to call conservation to a cult religion, complete with sin and redemption through sacrifice. SUVs have simply replaced the "virgin". If you don't like the weather throw another SUV into the volcano.
Nature does not care what you do - it just adapts; if you cannot adapt then you become extinct like all the other laggard species that did not move with the new flow ;-)
The whole "global warming" (bovel) movement has the hallmark of the ideal project for politicians:
Billions to divert into "programmes", nice emotial imagery of sinking cities and starving baby seals combined with timescales that make it impossible to measure
*any* effect in the span of a career - i.e. Power without Accountability!
Taxation does not create incentive - if one actually spend the energy taxes on alternatives and research in alternatives, *then* you might be onto something. But this goes against the grain in the political systems:
1) If you can effectively control your tax payment by adopting your behaviour then you also control the ressources available to the State, the tail wagging the dog as it were, therefore taxation will adopt so that there will be no net effect for you if you did bother to change your ways.
2) Political systems are mostly parasites adopted to the current environment - if the environment changes, niches might emerge that allow others in on the(ir) gravy train. So, naturally, politicians use tax-payers money to defend their ecosystem by preventing any change.
I.O.W: The real incentive and the change will not come from the political system, it will come *in spite of it's best efforts*. When Iraq finally goes tit-up or Iran nukes the Saudi heretics; something like that. ... The unlikely option is if people actually drive the change by popular demand and by taking action themselves.
Because that would nullify the sole, immediate and measurable effect of getting rid of fossils: Security!
Every USD dollar spend on Oil is spent towards the support of terrorist states, religious fanatics too stupid to work and stalinist regimes. Check the map: very few oil producing nations are even close to being democracies.
Some deserts have cold temperatures also, especially intermittently!
Example: Colorado High Desert!
Also: Nevada just east of the Sierra Nevada mountains, especially farther north. Look up average daily low temperature in July in Reno! Can it get any better 50 miles out of town?
Meanwhile, foundries and smelting require temperatures generally in or near the range of 900-1750 degrees C. LA, Phoenix, Mexico City, Houston, Dallas, Birmingham, Miami, Seattle, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, Toronto and Boston at most times have all of their temperatures in a range less than 40 degrees C. In fact, I think that 60% of the time the coldest of this bunch is less than 35 degrees C cooler than the warmest of this bunch. So I suspect that environmental regulations, workplace safety regulations, taxation and prevailing wages and other employment costs (such as health insurance contributions) have more impact upon these industries than a couple percent change in the difference between working temperature and outdoor air temperature!
But, Richard, you aren't doing your part to help. It's your turn to commit suicide, and you haven't done it... please comply ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.
As expected, some cavalier posts by GOP ostriches. If the polar ice caps melt and release additional greenhouse gases, the system could run away and none of us will be here to post drivel. Have a nice day, as they could be running out.
Neeerp! Only useless places like Boston and New York will be under water ;-)
BTW, when the polar ice caps melt, would you be sure to let me know? Thanks !-)
Sheeeesh! I'd rather be a GOP ostrich than a shit-headed liberal weenie ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.
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