Better Rate of Growth Data

ted time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and l owers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as b eing incomplete.

rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/

2. >

t this disease.

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K. growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

mated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed t o dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

n rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I wi ll note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. T he data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated

3/19.

ght this disease.

You have been working with the numbers that are out of date by the time you get them. Each day the "new infections" are a combination of people infec ted over the last two weeks or even more. The data I'm working with is dat ed to when the person would have been infected, not when they were detected .

That's the point. Bad data, bad conclusions. Not that you need bad data t o reach bad conclusions.

--

  Rick C. 

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I'm watching the "daily increase" graphs. The last few days are flat or declining for some. Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland (which has no shelter-in-place rules) all seem to have peaked a few days ago. You can sort of mentally plop a bell-shaped curve over a lot of those graphs. We need another week of data.

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they will open the country for business and pretend there are no more deaths.

I never knew that New Jersey is in Africa, but I sort of suspected something like that.

--

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

imated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data an d lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data a s being incomplete.

on rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I w ill note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

ight this disease.

The CDC has a useful graph of the various states:

C_AA_refVal

Screen-grabbing that graph's evolution over time shows the spread.

I've been following

for the overall picture -- the log graphs make it easy. But we can't vouch for the site's accuracy.

I took a peek at New Jersey that time we were in New York, ages ago. Dickensian.

Cheers, James

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:47:58 PM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@yahoo.com wrot e:

stimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attribute d to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

tion rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dat ed 3/19.

fight this disease.

CDC_AA_refVal

They do say where they get their data from.

John Larkin's idea of what might make sense isn't all that useful. I've not seen anybody claim that the China data is false with any kind of s upporting evidence.

The general line is that they don't like the data and think the fact that i t come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

no more deaths.

As Trump seems to be planning to do.

--
Bill Sloman. Sydney

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a panic attack?

1) China did everything they could do to hide the disease, until they couldn't any more. 2) I never panic. I was born without a fear mechanism. I have no startle reflex. That forces me to think with neurons, not hormones.

--

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

1) "In late December, rumors of a mysterious virus started circulating on Chinese social media. China notified the WHO on Dec. 31 that there was a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan. Based on Chinese data, the WHO issued a Jan. 5 statement saying there were 44 cases and no evidence of person-to-person transmission.

But a Washington Post reconstruction of events showed that by Jan. 5, some Wuhan authorities knew that doctors were discussing the spread of a SARS-like virus. For this, they were detained and denounced."

2) Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed. 3) .-- | January 20, 2020 | | The World Health Organization confirmed that there is evidence of "limited human-to-human transmission" of the new virus. | '--

Cheers, James Arthur

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last. The China response and their sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

The idea that data from China 'doesn't make sense' is a laugh, why would early stages of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? The early-months data from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, either.

The CDC is being a biatch again. The data I'm using for my calculations is showing 11,000 when worldometer is showing 13,000 new cases. The CDC site gives totals for the two days that differ by almost 14,000. What happened to the missing 3,000 new cases?

The footnote says they don't include data that does not have an estimated o nset date or a specimine collection date. Is our data handling so bad we h ave lost 3,000 data points?

--

  Rick C. 

  -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
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Some local lower level bureaucrats in Wuhan tried to suppress local discussion and investigation, but these attempts seem to have been overtaken by events fairly early on.

Sadly, whatever it is that damaged the neurones involved in your startle reflex (which isn't hormonal) seems to done quite a lot of damage to the neurones you use for general thinking.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

closed

ou having a

e Wuhan authorities knew that doctors were discussing the spread of a SARS- like virus. For this, they were detained and denounced."

l

That story is behind a paywall. From what I remember, the detentions and de nunciations were a local reaction, designed to maintain business as usual i n Wuhan. Once the central authorities realised that they were seeing the ea rly stages of an epidemic they started keeping WHO informed.

ectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to s top tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet ha s revealed.

Again, that seems to have been a lower-level "lets ignore it an hope it goe s away" reaction.

Again behind a paywall.

ited human-to-human transmission" of the new virus.

Once there were a significant number of cases, the Chinese authorities went public. This doesn't really suggest that they are going to start lying abo ut it now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

ote:

estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attribu ted to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older dat a and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest da ta as being incomplete.

ection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new dat a. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data d ated 3/19.

to fight this disease.

t

l?CDC_AA_refVal

supporting evidence.

it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

re no more deaths.

LOL! OF COURSE they isn't any supporting data: China arrests anyone who att empts to do that, and kicks news reporters out of the country to be sure th ey don't get their story heard.

A curious thing has happened China: 21 million cell phone subscriptions hav e disappeared, and a drop in subscriptions has not occurred before, let alo ne 21 million:

The only thing we know for sure about data from Chinese communists is that it is doctored.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples, and suppress the news..."

Also, they denied there was human transmission, well after it was amply established.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the world's panicked over.

Cheers, James Arthur

of supporting evidence.

at it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

are no more deaths.

ttempts to do that, and kicks news reporters out of the country to be sure they don't get their story heard.

They certainly try to intimidate reporters, and like to control what the ou tside world gets to hear, but there are ways of getting around that.

ave disappeared, and a drop in subscriptions has not occurred before, let a lone 21 million:

Or it might suggest that the CCP has found out that some phones support enc ryption, and shut them down.

One point in one of the reports was that migrant workers used to have diffe rent cell phones for use at at home and when at work. If China is locking d own on one cell phone per person (which is used to identify and locate them all the time) it's easy enough to see how a lot of second cell phones migh t have get retired. o

t it is doctored.

You don't even know that for sure. Doctoring data takes a lot of work on ma king the associated data consistent with the doctored data, and its rarely worth the effort.

Rabid idiots like you want ignore any Chinese data you don't like and repla ce with your own bizarre inventions, which isn't helpful.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

rote:

infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

o

That does seem to have been a stupid low level response. Once the problem w as recognised higher in the power structure, the responses got more constru ctive - and more sustainable - almost immediately.

For exactly how long?

d early stages of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? Th e early-months data from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely inform ative, either.

And James Arthur fits squarely into that category. So does John Larkin for that matter, even if his fudges and fibs are second hand consequences of be ing a gullible twit.

Their hospitalisation rate,and serious and critical patient numbers don't l ook all that different from Italy.

It's rather difficult to report all infections of a new virus - you need an tibody detection kits for that, and they take a while to put together. Viru s detection kits to identify active cases take priority, and the US made a hash of ramping up their stock of them even after they'd got the heads-up f rom China.

James Arthur has a political axe to grind, and long history of fudging and fibbing to make his silly ideas look more plausible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Meaningless mudslinging. It's in the self-interest of China to combat a major disease, and fibbing isn't how to do that.

Pandemic means this doesn't stop at the border; not at ANY border.

Why try to paint fear, uncertainty, and doubt onto such an unlikely surface? It doesn't stick.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

James Arthur claims to approve of Trump.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney