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ind of supporting evidence.

t that it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

here are no more deaths.

ho attempts to do that, and kicks news reporters out of the country to be s ure they don't get their story heard.

e outside world gets to hear, but there are ways of getting around that.

ns have disappeared, and a drop in subscriptions has not occurred before, l et alone 21 million:

encryption, and shut them down.

ifferent cell phones for use at at home and when at work. If China is locki ng down on one cell phone per person (which is used to identify and locate them all the time) it's easy enough to see how a lot of second cell phones might have get retired.

that it is doctored.

n making the associated data consistent with the doctored data, and its rar ely worth the effort.

eplace with your own bizarre inventions, which isn't helpful.

n.

Not remotely true. I'm as sceptical about them as I am about most other sou rces.

Lunatic conspiracy theorists like you do get added extra scepticism - if yo u make a habit of posting fatuous nonsense, everything you post is suspect.

dicator that the Chinese are doing what they do extremely well: LIE.

It might be, but there are other hypotheses - I advanced two - which don't require any undocumented deaths. You don't seem to have the capacity to thi nk about either, which isn't all that surprising since you don't seem to ha ve any capacity to think at all.

y infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

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ld early stages

nths data from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, eit her.

The claim is that most of their new cases are Chinese who have flown home f rom places where Covid-19 is circulating. A plane load of passengers from I taly might deliver 93 new cases in one hit.

The absurdity is all in your mindless incomprehension what's actually going on.

There as a brief period - early in the Wuhan outbreak where the local admin istration tried to sweep the problem under the rug. James Arthur's enthusia sm for generating anti-communist propaganda has lead him to try to exaggera te this into a criticism of the adminstratio9n of the entire country, which is the kind of fibbing and fudging he goes in for far too frequently.

es the world's panicked over.

Sadly, that's what happens early in an epidemic.

We are now getting pretty horrible case fatality rates out of Italy, and th e US debacle promises more.

Once you have enough serious and critical cases to overload your hospital s ystem, many more people die from what should have been bad - but survivable - infections.

That particular example of "common sense" was actually a chunk of anti-comm unist political propaganda - more of the kind of fibbing and fudging that J ames Arthur has been practicing for years. There was nothing nuanced about it - Donald Trump goes in for bare-faced lying, and his supporters admire h im for it. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. and Donald Trump is even more addicted to flattery than John Larkin.

He is James Arthur's kind of lying creep. Not a recommendation anybody sane would want to have.

I haven't seen the US version of "The Apprentice", but that behaviour is exactly what is seen in the UK version when the empty shirts are either beating their chests or pleading not to be fired.

The US has an apprentice president, unfortunately.

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te having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what ha ppens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's e xample demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all po ssible contacts really does work.

ple who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

at never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of c ases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

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pite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

eople who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance .

cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting . See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

The real number of cases in the US is unknown and likely MUCH larger than w hat is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The i ssue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control. The US clearly does not.

The US situation is the worst of any place on this earth. We did not put e nough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing in to it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and continui ng to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospi tals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an im pact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

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espite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of wha t happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea 's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of al l possible contacts really does work.

people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

t that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performan ce.

of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporti ng. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control . The US clearly does not.

enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and contin uing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infecte d we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will pe ak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hos pitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let 's not get crazy here.

I should have said "real KNOWN cases" rather than "real cases." Obviously, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly as testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspect an d does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

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despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of w hat happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Kor ea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

he people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his perform ance.

r of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are repor ting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

an what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. T he issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under contr ol. The US clearly does not.

ut enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easin g into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and cont inuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infec ted we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of h ospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have a n impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, l et's not get crazy here.

, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly a s testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspect and does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

I'm not going to get into that nonsense. The bottom line is there is no re ason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally everyth ing they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

Jeez, some people are so gullible they won't believe anything.

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a, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South K orea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation o f all possible contacts really does work.

the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his perfo rmance.

ber of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are rep orting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

than what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under con trol. The US clearly does not.

put enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than eas ing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and co ntinuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 inf ected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we wil l peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

ly, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly as testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspec t and does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

reason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally every thing they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

That's right: I LITERALLY believe that China is lying to us and the rest of the world; why change your stripes at this point in the game?

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pite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

eople who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance .

cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting .

The real number of case in China probably is higher than the reported cases - if you get a mild case and don't take it to the doctor, how is it going tog et reported.

The claim that it is much higher is pure conspiracy theory nitwit speculati on.

There are other explanations for that. China seems to have moved to making it a rule that you only have one cell phone and use it wherever you are, so the government knows exactly where you are.

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for making local calls where they worked and the other for making local calls when they were at home. If all those second phone had got retired, you've got your explan ation.

Not one that any rabid conspiracy theory nut would want to pay any attentio n to, but still plausible.

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o reason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally eve rything they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

of the world; why change your stripes at this point in the game?

Flyguy is remarkably stupid, and might actually believe this.

More realistic observers might expect China to lie when they had a reasonab le chance of getting away with it, and had something to gain by lying.

This doesn't seem to be such a situation.

And flyguy isn't consistent. He's perfectly happy to believe the Chinese re port that they had retired 21 million cells phone, but insists it is becaus e the owners had died. If that were the case the Chinese would presumably h ave lied about the cell phone numbers to cover it up.

Not exactly. Chinese smart phones usually have dual SIM slots for that purpose. Since that phone cannot connect to two different services at the same time, they appear on call logs as one IMEI or MEID for both SIMs.

There are also various reasons why they need dual SIMs. "Why do Chinese smartphones have two SIM card slots?"

The CDC doesn't update their web page on weekends. Is that insane or what? I guess they don't want to have a second "essential" person handle that. But that data ends up being so old that it isn't saying anything useful ev en if it is more accurate.

Using the data from worldometers.info it appears the US new cases may be ap proaching a maximum. Being a differential it is fairly noisy, but the last six days have all been on the low side and the local trend is looking good . Another couple of days may well show the new cases leveling off. That's still a heavy upward ramp, but at least it wouldn't be exponential anymore .

Same principle. It is the phone numbers that have been retired, not necessa rily the phones themselves.

makes the point that the Chinese success wasn't primarily due to rigid lock

-down, but the same sort of fanatical contact tracing and isolation of peop le who might have got infected that was used in South Korea. South Korea ha d enough warning that they could go straight to contact tracing, and didn't need to bother with lock-down.

If they were relying on cell-phones to keep track of people, they wouldn't be happy if the cell-phone had two SIM cards which could have been swapped between phones by people wanting to sneak out.

t? I guess they don't want to have a second "essential" person handle that . But that data ends up being so old that it isn't saying anything useful even if it is more accurate.

approaching a maximum. Being a differential it is fairly noisy, but the la st six days have all been on the low side and the local trend is looking go od. Another couple of days may well show the new cases leveling off. That 's still a heavy upward ramp, but at least it wouldn't be exponential anymo re.

If the trend is still upwards, it just takes longer to get to the "everybod y infected" stage. You've got to get to progressively fewer new cases on se veral successive days before you can talk about "looking good".

Jeff Liebermann wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@4ax.com:

My very fisrt smartphone wsa from 5 years ago. It was a $900 Viewsonic and had two sim slots. It was because my boss went to Israel a lot. Verizon would not activate it. So it has sat in a box down near Perdue unused for the last 5 years.

It doesn't matter if the phone number changes. The IMEI or MEID will not change because they are burned into the firmware of the phone and are not part of the user accessible SIM.

That Korea is doing is tracking people using an app (and testing): Those users are expected to enter their medical status twice per day. If they're locked down, and they step outside the house or apartment, the authorities will contact them with a suitable threat if they fail to cooperate. If they are shown to be infected, or come in contact with someone else known to be infected, the GPS location log is used to do contact tracing and isolate everyone who might have been exposed. I don't have any info on how China did it, but I suspect it's similar.

ssarily the phones themselves.

ock-down, but the same sort of fanatical contact tracing and isolation of p eople who might have got infected that was used in South Korea. South Korea had enough warning that they could go straight to contact tracing, and did n't need to bother with lock-down.

't be happy if the cell-phone had two SIM cards which could have been swapp ed between phones by people wanting to sneak out.

I guess we can't do that here because we value our freedom to be infected?