Better Rate of Growth Data

Only the paranoid survive. I know of a local doctor who may have been exposed to someone with the virus. They're not sure, but since doctors are so valuable, it pays to err on the side of caution. So, she gets a 14 day "vacation" at home doing "video visits":

The real problem seems to be asymptomatic (shows no symptoms) people, who have been infected, but don't know it yet. Estimates from various sources put the percentage of people who test positive, but are asymtomatic at 10 to 30%. With the current USA positive test results running anywhere from 2% to 25% and only a small percentage of the population having been tested, that could easily be a rather large number of unknowing carriers.

Data from internet connected fever thermometers are producing some interesting results showing that social distancing and staying at home seem to work: However, I have no information as to how many internet connected fever thermometers were used to calculate the trends shown on the map.

Not just valuable, but what is worse than finding out you don't have the vi rus now, but your doctor may have infected you?

None of those numbers really have utility. What is important is the number s we are seeing as the infection grows because we aren't locking down enoug h. The virus is what it is and we have the knowledge to fight it, just not the will.

China put the entire city of Hunan effectively in quarantine by preventing all travel. Here New Yorkers went to Mardi Gras and spring break. The sta te of Florida now blames New York when they failed to close their beaches a nd kick them out. Now I read Florida is stopping people with NJ tags.

Of course staying at home would work. But only if people actually do it. I wonder if Charter Communications is still requiring workers to come to th e office when they could be working from home? I hope they don't get a pen ny of bailout money.

As a country we did not respond in time or effectively. At the state level we did not respond in time or effectively. We could have been the poster child for stopping this disease by learning from the Chinese and other Asia n countries that got early wins on limiting the spread. Instead the US wil l be the failure that the rest of the world will do post mortem studies on.

Our President says if we limit the number of deaths to 100,000 we will have done a good job. Yup, he said that.

Most of Europe seems to have peaked around March 25. Luxembourg peaked on the 24th and on the 29th new cases were down 11:1 from peak.

Makes sense that a small country would have an early, sharp peak. Something big like US, Russia, Canada (and China!) would have multiple centers peaking at different times to smear out the curve.

The 1918 thing tended to have regional new-case curves that were Gaussian looking but with the tail chopped off hard. I haven't seen that mentioned in the press, for this one. All I see are nice smooth Gaussians in the projections.

Nothing grows exponentially.

Maybe Luxembourg will set the pattern. Check out Luxembourg on Street View. Looks very clean and nice.