I WANT YOU THINK ABOUT TWO SCENERIOS/CASES:
TWO SCENERIOS:
- SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE ARE ALL IN ONE ROOM AND 1 PATIENT ZERO COUGHTS THEM ALL IN THE FACE.
- SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE ARE ALL IN A SEPERATE ROOM AND THEY PASS ALONG THE VIRUS FROM PERSON TO PERSON.
WHICH CASE DO YOU THINK IS BETTER ? TAKE YOUR TIME...
MY COMPUTER SIMULATION OF COREWARS ANSWERS THIS QUESTION.
CASE 1 IS BEST CASE SCENERIO BECAUSE:
THE VIRUS IS STILL WEAK, AND ALL PEOPLE FIGHT THE SAME VIRUS WITH THEIR IMMUNE SYSTEM AND THEN THE PANDEMIC IS OVER.
CASE 2 IS WORST CASE SCENERIO BECAUSE:
THE VIRUS CAN THEN MUTATE FROM PERSON TO PERSON AND ACQUIRE PERHAPS NEW TRICKS AND NEW DNA.
SO THE SECOND CASE IS LIKE A CHAIN OF PEOPLE
A->B->C->D->E->F
NOW IN REALITY THIS CHAIN OFCOURSE WOULDN'T WORK IF B STOPS THE VIRUS AND STAYS IN DOORS, THEN THE CHAIN IS BROKEN.
THIS IS WHERE THE VIRUS BENEFITS FROM A TREE APPROACH
0->1->3 0->1->4 0->2 ->5 0->2->6SO PATIENT ZERO INFECTS TWO PATIENTS; 1 AND 2.
AND PATIENT 1 AND 2 INFECT PATIENTS 3,4 AND 5,6.
THIS IS EXPOTENTIAL GROWTH.
THIS INSURES THAT IF PATIENT 3 FOR EXAMPLE STOPS THE VIRUS, PATIENT 4 MIGHT PASS IT ON.
SAME WITH 5 AND 6.
SO THIS TREE LIKE SPREADING OF THE VIRUS IS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS, THIS I NEVER REALLY MODELLED I DIDN'T GET TO THAT STAGE, I DID MODEL IT WITH A TREE OF 10 BRANCHES BUT THAT TAKES A LOT OF COMPUTATIONAL TIME.
I WANTED TO TEST THIS "ISOLATED" APPROACH BUT NEVER COMPLETED IT. (8 VIRUSES PER BRANCH IN THEIR OWN HABITAT)
I SUSPECT BY KEEPING THE VIRUS IN CLUSTERS IT'S ACTUALLY MORE DANGEROUS BECAUSE IT ALLOWS WEAKER VARIANTS OF THE VIRUS TO KEEP MUTATING AND EVOLVING INSTEAD OF BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER.
MORE VARIANTS/MUTATIONS IS SIMPLY MORE DANGEROUS.
SO NOW LOOKING BACK AT HOW THE CRISIS WAS DEALT WITH WE ON PLANET EARTH MIGHT HAVE DONE THE WRONG THING BY ISOLATING PEOPLE AND TRYING LOCKS DOWNS, IT HELPS HOSPITALS KEEP NUMBERS DOWN, BUT IT IS AIDING THE VIRUS BY GIVING IT TIME TO MORE SLOW SPREAD FROM PERSON TO PERSON AND BASICALLY LEARN/ADEPT TO EACH INDIVIDUAL'S IMMUNE SYSTEM.
NOW THE VIRUS IS ALSO BEING CONFRONTED WITH CORONA VACCINES AND IT MAY ADEPT, THE MORE CHALLENGERS/COMPETITORS/ANTI-DOTES IT SEES THE STRONGER IT WILL BECOME.
FINALLY A WORD OF CAUTION:
SUMMER IS NOW SLOWLY BECOMING REALITY IN EUROPE, THIS MAY BE THE REAL CAUSE OF THE INFECTION NUMBERS GOING DOWN, OTHER CAUSES MIGHT BE MANIPULATION OF NUMBERS OR MANIPULATION TESTS THRESHOLDS OR LESS TESTS BEING PERFORMED.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEXT WINTER THIS VIRUS WILL RETURN, STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE AND CREATE MORE INFECTIONS AND MORE DEATHS.
THIS CRISIS MIGHT NOT YET BE OVER.
BYE, SKYBUCK.