Probably nobody has it under control. It will probably die out in summer, like flus usually do.
At the sometimes-claimed spreading rate, everyone has had it already. It will be interesting to look at the numbers when it's all over. I suspect that a lot of the data published today is all wrong.
We could save fuel and make them paddle.
It is an acceptable risk when set against the prospect of destroying the global economy for a decade or more and still having the pandemic occur.
It is about 5x more dangerous than childbirth in the developed world. #19 in the table below
Or about twice as dangerous for fatalities as measles. It is without doubt a serious disease but not *so* serious that we should destroy the global economy in a futile attempt to stop the now inevitable pandemic.
People are very very bad at assessing individual risks.
Our approach seems superbly competent to me -- we banned travel.
Wouldn't blocking the incoming stream seem a more rational, more strategic actual /intervention/ than running around tracing the horses' hoof-prints after they've arrived and left the barn?
Testing seems an irrelevant quibble to me, mostly.
'If you've come back from a dicey place, at a minimum be considerate and watch yourself carefully for a couple weeks' accomplishes a lot more than bulk testing.
And isn't it the case that places with plenty of testing (in your eye), weren't saved by it?
In fact, aren't Britons presently advised *not* to be tested, but rather to self-quarantine if they feel ill, and only seek medical attention if their symptoms become serious? That is, hasn't the U.K. itself abandoned the 'test everyone' approach?
Patients with mild symptoms - such as a new continuous cough or a high temperature above 37.8C should self-isolate at home for at least seven days, according to the latest advice issued by Public Health England.
People are being advised not to ring NHS 111 to report their symptoms unless they are worried. They should also not go to their GP, or A&E.
That seems an entirely reasonable, efficacious, efficient strategy.
I don't see that testing was bungled in the U.S., or that it could've made any difference.
Cheers, James Arthur
It is so classic Larkin to look at very limited existing data and ignore th e trend. Larkin talks about the 100 US deaths from Coronavirus without con sidering that before we can do anything to limit the disease there will be another 1000... in just 13 days.
Which countries are saying that??? China is the furthest off their peak wi th new cases dropping from thousands per day to less than 20.
Larkin is famous here for saying any number of absurd things, but his comme nts on Coronavirus top the list. Unfortunately he will be proven wrong ver y quickly and is not likely to ever live it down. No, that part is wrong. He will never be embarrassed by the stupid things he says. That's one thi ng he has in common with the President, a total inability to consider his m istakes or to even consider that he made mistakes.
Measles is interesting. In an unprotected population, R0 is about 15. Before vaccines, basically every kid got it.
Clearly proper isolation does the job as shown in China right now. They ha ve a new infection rate of around 10 per day and still dropping. Clearly a dequate isolation works.
What makes you think the economy will be any less "destroyed" if we let the virus run rampant? You simply don't have any data to support your view. There is no reason to believe this disease can't be eradicated preventing t he death of 5% of the world population.
Measles *is* treated as a highly contagious, dangerous disease which it is. The difference is we can easily contain measles and prevent it from infe cting the world.
Yes, some people are.
The economy is crap no matter what. Part of the reason is because people a ren't willing to put themselves and their loved ones at unnecessary risk be cause a few people like you and Elon Musk like pumping the economy.
Rick C wrote: ...
That would mean that the virus is erased. What happenes when in the future people travelling again with reintroduce it.
Uwe Bonnes wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@mid.individual.net:
It comes and it goes...
It ebbs and it flows...
Our atmosphere is a slurry, and that is especially true in closed spaces with sub adequate air handling, and more true in direct proximty to an infected person. And THEN it gets on surfaces and has a short lifespan there, unless it gets touched by a person whom then subsequently touches other skin or mucus mebranes introducing it to the body. But I thought it resides strictly in the lungs so that tells me that it is not surface contact, but aeresol suspension that is the transmission mode.
So f*ck 10 people or less, and all that declaration crap.
Why they think putting a number on it is better than actually putting up educational seminars is beyond me. Any number is too many. I was in the grocery yesterday and there were more than ten there. Means nothing because if even only one, but the ten that just left had three and they coughed and sneezed before they left.
We got 3-D cartoon CAD now. It would be easy to animate for folks with those advance video editing packages and ALL the news agencies have top grade iterations of that very thing.
Sure, if you eradicate it in your country and other countries have not, you can't allow travel with those countries. This is no different than any ot her disease. When Ebola breaks out travel with those areas becomes restric ted. If we discovered smallpox roaming the earth again, travel restriction s would be put in place.
We know how to contain infectious agents. It is possible. With this disea se it will be harder than most other diseases, but it is not impossible and China has clearly shown that.
I would expect that China wishes to get a good enough handle on this diseas e that they can literally isolate all infected individuals before they end the lock down. They are close to doing that.
A few weeks ago I started watching a comedy about doctors who are also cops fighting a man-made viral plague. Not so funny in real life.
It will be interesting to see how this virus changes the way we live even a fter it is dealt with. I think this is going to be a watershed event in al l our lives. The trouble is in a few decades it will largely be forgotten in many ways just as the pandemic of 1918 was. We know it happened, but di dn't take the lesson seriously enough to try to be prepared even with the p recursors we've seen, SARS, Swine flu, etc.
I had something a few weeks ago when there were maybe 110 cases in the US. It came on fast with coughing and serious chills, I mean in bed, under the covers and still shivering chills. I had only minor thought it was COVID-
Rick C wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:
Shelter in place for another two weeks.
Clearly, that's NOT a relevant number. When/if critical-care treatment reaches full capacity, that changes (worsens) the equation, and we're causing major upheavals to keep the case load manageable because the rate of respirator treatments determines when our medical response goes nonlinear (collapses, saturates, fails to respond). The current death toll, important as it is, does NOT tell the story.
Every infection, when most of the population is unaffected, is a seed for exponential growth if we drop the restrictions. We need to know that the affected population NOW will not exceed critical-care facilities in a week or so (when the cases are more well-developed), and we need to know that the case growth is not faster than our tooling-up to handle a future peak.
There was a lady on TV news today claiming the young may not be as "in the clear" as previously thought.
I didn't catch her name, but she's speaking at the Presidential briefings all the time. I assume she heads some agency, or works for Johns-Hopkins, or something.
She said the early data coming out of Korea and China may not have been sufficient to show younger folks were at lower risk, and then went on to detail that we've had plenty of cases involving younger adults.
Make of it what you will.
mpm wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:
Bad bugs, Bad bugs, Watcha gonna do... Watcha gonna do when they run through you...
Count on it, world. Humans are dumb, so we are going to experience FOOL IMMERSION!
Most US communities currently have no restrictions, so are presumably growing cases exponentially. Do you think their medical facilities will be overloaded in a week or so from now?
The case load here in SF is higher than most of the USA. SF General (the hospital that Zuckerberg bought for his wife, and where I spent 3 days in ICU) currently has two C19 cases, 10 ventilators in use, and over 50 more available.
We've probably had many, many more cases among kids and young adults than are known. Symptoms are usually mild or even nil. It would be interesting to do antibody tests on a lot of people, to see who has had it. It's impressive how little data we have on this thing that we will spend a trillion dollars on.
I didn't have to.
If the UK had the same number of ventilators per head of population as the US, it would have 34,720. 5000 is one-seventh of that, as is obvious to anybody who can do mental arithmetic.
You clearly can't.
Asymptomatic young people who have caught the corona virus can - and presumably do - spread it. This shows up in the number of people with detectable disease.
If the number of detected cases is still rising, the number infected hadn't peak five days ago, and it's highly unlikely - given the shape of the curve - that it's going to peak anytime soon.
John Larkin isn't world clearest thinker.
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