Why You Must Act Now (2023 Update)

Many jurisdictions have already enacted laws to halt evictions. The econom ic effects will be hard to deal with for sure. We want to push back on the larger economic resources but not all of them will take the strain. Landl ords have mortgage payments to make, banks need income to stay solvent, etc ., etc....

The big three auto makers have shut their factories and are offering to mak e ventilators to help us get through these times. Clearly they see it as a time that we all need to work together just like in war time. I think tha t by pulling together we can all get through.

ake ventilators to help us get through these times.

Need parts and materials from China. Same for their auto factories.

Seriously, ventilators are easy to make, but the operators are not so easy. For severe case, two tubes need to be inserted into patient's lung. One to pump air and one to draw fluid. The patient will resist, struggle and e xpel substances during the process. Many human operators got infected this way.

Now, go make a robot to insert tubes and make lots of money with this.

Nope, there's no point in an eviction without a pool of other prospective paying tenants. Some eviction-suspension proclamations have already been issued, in fact, but most owners will just add another month's rental to the bill and hope for interest on that debt later on.

The real losers, will be college students; pay tuition, find an apartment or dorm, then get no classes and are sent 'home' despite being on the hook for a lease.

here students have to study online, they have to sign on every morning and return completed assignments in the afternoon or they will be noted as absent

e to pay rent, evictions just means the property is vacant and not generati ng any income. Better to let the tenants to continue to live in the apartm ent with the understanding of rent being paid when the tenant can pay.

us somewhat protected from vandals.

You forgot to mention that the Courts will be closed anyway. Nobody's going to be evicted and put out on the streets.

Even with a court order, you might have trouble finding a Sheriff to enforc e it.

a little late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in com plete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply si t down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with th is). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extr apolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

er of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied b y exponential.

graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

If you'd written "logarithmic graph" it would have been unambiguous. A log graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

The option of displaying a graph of the logarithm of the case numbers does seem to be new and most the graphs still don't offer it.

People who understand curve fitting don't much like graphs of the logarithm s of numbers - for low numbers quantisation noise is problem, and for high numbers small deviations from the "straight line" are minimised.

t the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in th e US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

mber of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.

he graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

g graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

Wow, you can compete pretty well with Larkin when it comes to denial.

at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for t he few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly show s what will happen if nothing is done.

number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is impli ed by exponential.

The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

log graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

You seem to be doing even better.

It may well depend on the general health and fitness of the nation.

In a country like Germany where people are mostly lean and fit they have had a much lower fatality rate than expected compared on Italy. Almost all the UK fatalities so far have been of people with underlying health conditions. The continental habit of kissing as a greeting may partially explain the steeper rise in cases there than in the UK. The UK isn't actually shown on this particular graph but its line is about 3/4 of the gradient of USA and 2.5x the gradient of Japans.

The one with the UK on is behind a paywall.

The problem in the USA is that 30% of the population are obese and a couple of percent with type II diabetes as well so your cohort of youn gpeople with "underlying health conditions" is very much larger than in a typical European country. Time will tell how it pans out.

I expect this means that if you are in the at risk group with a health condition then you are in the same boat as the over 70's in the ROW.

I think the healthy adults at most risk are the medics on the front line. They could potentially get exposed to a lethal dose that is able to overwhelm their immune system if their PPE containment fails.

I expect that in a nation of junk food addicted couch potatoes the effect of covid-19 is going to be rather unpleasant.

Is there a dose-death relationship? If viral replication is exponential inside a body, starting with more viruses just shifts the time scale a bit. I guess just one virus is all it takes.

I don't see many fat people around here. A lot of fit people biking and running and spending money in gyms. We do have a lot of hispanics and especially Pacific Islanders who are huge. I think they are not genetically adapted to a European diet, lots of dairy and meat and fat. They are not out biking and running.

Mutton flaps:

I think the short answer is "yes." Dad said it was a numbers game, that a certain number of viral particles are statistically necessary for a given probability of infection. Nurses who get stuck with a needle full of AIDs blood, for example, rarely get infected.

Perhaps a lucky someone who got a low number of viral particles might be lucky enough to develop an immune response, without the virus ever having gotten established.

For the host, it's a race for survival. The infected person has to manufacture an immune response faster than the virus replicates. That's the fever. The fever is your metabolism being diverted to germ warfare production. Meanwhile, the invader's going exponential.

So yes, if the dose is small, even a slightly faster initial response will drastically cut your peak viral load.

Practical implications? I've no idea how the statistically infection-producing dose for SARS-CoV2 compares with the typical dose people are actually experiencing. Maybe it's typically a hopeless overload, enough to guarantee infection. But I've heard that only 20% of the people on the Diamond Petri^H^H^H^HPrincess were infected, suggesting 80% were either immune, quickly acquired immunity, or were amazingly lucky.

Cheers, James Arthur

The immune system is much better than that - it is a numbers game. ISTR for most pathogens it takes about a dozen or so tries before one stands a better than evens chance of delivering its genetic package to a cell nucleus successfully. Even then there may be other responses that kill it off. Once the immune system sees something alien it starts to react. There is then a race for supremacy between the bodies countermeasures and the virus replication. I'm not a biologist so I will have to wait until I next see my tame biologist again to get any more.

One of the things I recall was that if you get a large enough hit of an infective agent you can be unlucky and die from it even when you are notionally protected. ISTR the example given was someone who got an enormous number of infected mosquito bites. We got some specialist training for working on at risk sites after someone got seriously ill. (it was a very long time ago so my recollection is a little hazy)

US population is very bimodal. SF is better than most. Most of the US tourists I see round here look and weigh about the same as a sumo wrestler but none of it is muscle.

The viral replication within the body is exponential until the immune syste m kicks in. The immune system has to be exposed to enough viral particles t o start make antibodies that latch onto them. More virus particles get the process going in higher volume, but there is a delay until enough antibodie s get churned out to start the process of killing off virus particle and in fected cells.

Start the process with enough virus particles and you can be dead before th e immune response has a chance to get underway.

Fat people don't get around as much as fit people, and are correspondingly less visible.

Pacific Islanders are adapted to the same kind of erratic food supplies tha t our ancestors had to cope with. Being fat meant that you could survive lo nger when there wasn't any food around. Our ancestors all had growth rings on their teeth - they got starved at the end of winter every year.