Two weeks, YES! I've already said that if we don't curtail this virus we w ill have 100,000 sick by the end of the month. That's simple math. Howeve r, most communities are starting to get the message. Heck as of tomorrow t he major auto makers are shutting their factories.
If we did nothing, I have no doubt that early in April we would be rationin g medical treatments. Even with the current measures we will see this infe ction grow for the next week. We could have starting measures sooner but s ome people just can't grasp math and won't believe it is a problem until th ey see the results first hand.
So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?
--
Rick C.
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Extended social isolation could kill the epidemic completely, in the area w here it was practised.
R0 is a function of the social environment of the infecting person. If that environment is in lock-down, R0 falls dramatically - as the Chinese have d emonstrated in Hubei Province. The US seems unwilling to re-run that partic ular experiment, perhaps because they can't cope with the idea that R0 isn' t solely a function of the virus being transmitted.
As the Spanish flu demonstrated, letting a potentially lethal virus run it' s course kills a lot of people.
It's now up to 153, and the case numbers and the new case numbers are both rising exponetially. John Larkin is in full Pollyanna mode.
Flu doesn't kill anything like as high a proportion of those infected.
Name one.
According to Wkipedia - on the 1st December 2019.
Their new infection numbers are now very low
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and 81,000 cases is a lot less than the population of China. It would be one candidate for the "epidemic over" list, and it clearly wasn't relying on herd immunity.
China clearly has got it under control. Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan see m to have done as well.
Nowhere near enough people have died for this to be remotely true, as John Larkin would realise if he engaged what brain he has.
John Larkin does like thinking that. He's too dim and ill-formed to underst and the number he is seeing, and deciding that they are all wrong lets him off the hook.
In a decade or more we will have a vaccine against Covid-19 - even the most conservative of commentators think that we will have one within 18 months, and some of the new molecular biology tricks could come up with something quite a bit earlier.
You won't destroy the economy - merely put a crimp in it - and the aim is to defer the pandemic until we've got a vaccine, after which a pandemic isn't gong to happen.
It would have been if you had applied it early enough to prevent infected p eople entering the USA. You didn't so you were stuck with contct tracing.
Of course it would. You feel an obligation to be as silly as Donald Trump.
It could, if people did it. Bulk testing serves a different purpose and exp oses the damage done by irresponsible travelers.
You can't test everybody. You can use infrared thermometers to test everybo dy for fever, but that doesn't show up the people who are infected but not yet symptomatic.
Their health system is close to overloaded. They haven't the capacity to de al with people who get anxious after reading the newspaper or watching the news.
It's not all that efficacious, but they haven't got the capacity to do anyt hing more effective.
When 96 out of the 100 testing stations didn't have a testing kit that work ed, somebody had clearly bungled.
Granting that Trump has made habit of firing anybody in his administration who disagrees with his silly ideas - hos staff turnover has been remarkably high - the prospect that anybody competent enough to do anything useful mi ght have survived long enough to do anything foresighted about the Covid-19 epidemic has to be remote.
What are you smoking? Schools and universities closed last week, along with public libraries, and this week restaurants are shuttered. Every 'community' with an international airport most certainly DOES have restrictions. Small communities like ski resorts can slip past the precautions, do you think?
Ask Italy how that theory worked out.
Hopefully, these restrictions are effective enough, but the numbers matter, and we need a safety margin because sometimes folk like John Larkin shade their numbers or other facts. These inconvenient (costly, disastrous, stressful) changes are not really a solution, they just buy time.
all the time. I assume she heads some agency, or works for Johns-Hopkins, or something.
Anne Schuchat, MD, is the Principal Deputy Director of CDC.
ufficient to show younger folks were at lower risk, and then went on to det ail that we've had plenty of cases involving younger adults.
There were plenty of young adults, including the 30 something Dr. Li. Also , kids as well as newborns catching the virus. But the old people do not r ecover as well. Furthermore, even recovered patients have lung tissue dama ges. It's not just a simple case of surviving the flu. Do they (our fearl ess leaders) really want large proportion of the population with diminished lung capacity, as a result of their complacency.
As I read all the posts it seems most people are "getting it" even if a lit tle late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on si lly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in complete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any o ther country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolat ing that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.
I suppose people can be in denial by thinking the limited efforts being tak en so far will stop the disease, but they won't. We still have loads of pe ople going to work and going to restaurants where they aren't closed. I su ppose people can be in denial thinking this disease isn't all that serious, but it is. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, that's a huge number of people.
We have just a few more days and I don't mean weeks, I mean DAYS to get our act together and shut down this country so that the transmission stops, NO W. There is a week delay from transmission to the disease being detected. So we are already at 40,000 people infected in this country. We just have n't detected them yet. By next week we will be at 100,000 people infected. By March 25 we will be at 100,000 people verified as infected if the curr ent measures don't have an impact. I'm pretty confident the current measur es won't have enough of an impact and by the end of the month we will have verified 100,000 infected.
Three of the largest employers in the US, the automakers, are shutting thei r factories!!! Aren't there enough clues around for everyone to figure it out yet that this is serious???
Do we need to repeat the mistakes they made in China and reach the point wh ere we can't even bring people to the hospital and have to put them in make shift "hospitals" with no treatment because there is no room?
Or will we figure this out before we reach that point? We need leadership and we don't have it. If we had a real leader rather than the Real Estate Mogul in Chief we likely would have had decisive action weeks ago and not h ave to wait for state Governors to lead the federal government.
I was hoping to get through Trump's presidency without any real harm being done. I guess I can give up on that hope.
--
Rick C.
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-++-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
g with public libraries, and this week restaurants are shuttered. Every ' community' with an international airport most certainly DOES have restricti ons. Small communities like ski resorts can slip past the precautions, do you think?
atter, and we need a safety margin because sometimes folk like John Larkin shade their numbers or other facts. These inconvenient (costly, disastrou s, stressful) changes are not really a solution, they just buy time.
ittle late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effo rt or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in complet e denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit do wn with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapol ating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.
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It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number o f cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by ex ponential.
aken so far will stop the disease, but they won't. We still have loads of people going to work and going to restaurants where they aren't closed. I suppose people can be in denial thinking this disease isn't all that seriou s, but it is. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, that's a huge number of people.
ur act together and shut down this country so that the transmission stops, NOW.
You might be able to slow it down dramatically NOW, but new cases are peopl e who typically got infected five days ago, so it's going to be five days b efore you see anything in the graph of reported cases.
o we are already at 40,000 people infected in this country. We just haven' t detected them yet. By next week we will be at 100,000 people infected. By March 25 we will be at 100,000 people verified as infected if the curren t measures don't have an impact.
Haven't had an impact yet.
and by the end of the month we will have verified 100,000 infected.
Your confidence isn't well founded. Effective lock-down is immediately visi ble as empty streets, but you don't know it is effective as an anti-infecti on measure until the new case rate starts dropping
eir factories!!! Aren't there enough clues around for everyone to figure i t out yet that this is serious???
where we can't even bring people to the hospital and have to put them in ma keshift "hospitals" with no treatment because there is no room?
Not so much "hospitals" as isolation wards. If you aren't a serious or crit ical case, you don't need much treatment.
p and we don't have it. If we had a real leader rather than the Real Estat e Mogul in Chief we likely would have had decisive action weeks ago and not have to wait for state Governors to lead the federal government.
g done. I guess I can give up on that hope.
It was a pretty unrealistic hope. The Republican Party has learned to toler ate a bare-faced liar as their leader, and that's really harmful.
ong with public libraries, and this week restaurants are shuttered. Every 'community' with an international airport most certainly DOES have restric tions. Small communities like ski resorts can slip past the precautions, do you think?
matter, and we need a safety margin because sometimes folk like John Larki n shade their numbers or other facts. These inconvenient (costly, disastr ous, stressful) changes are not really a solution, they just buy time.
little late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus o n silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token ef fort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in compl ete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or a ny other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this ). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrap olating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.
of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.
You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The g raph has a tab for display on a log scale.
taken so far will stop the disease, but they won't. We still have loads o f people going to work and going to restaurants where they aren't closed. I suppose people can be in denial thinking this disease isn't all that seri ous, but it is. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, that's a huge numbe r of people.
our act together and shut down this country so that the transmission stops , NOW.
ple who typically got infected five days ago, so it's going to be five days before you see anything in the graph of reported cases.
So we are already at 40,000 people infected in this country. We just have n't detected them yet. By next week we will be at 100,000 people infected. By March 25 we will be at 100,000 people verified as infected if the curr ent measures don't have an impact.
Like you said, there is a delay and we really are just now shutting down re staurants, bars and people staying home from work. A friend told me today that the federal workers in DC are not at work and so some number of them a re partying. So no, the concept hasn't reached everyone. It's like the pe ople in Galveston having hurricane parties.
t and by the end of the month we will have verified 100,000 infected.
sible as empty streets, but you don't know it is effective as an anti-infec tion measure until the new case rate starts dropping
You aren't making sense. We don't have empty streets. We don't have lock down. So there is no reason to believe we will make enough of a dent in th e infection rate to not reach 100,000 infected by the end of the month.
their factories!!! Aren't there enough clues around for everyone to figure it out yet that this is serious???
t where we can't even bring people to the hospital and have to put them in makeshift "hospitals" with no treatment because there is no room?
itical case, you don't need much treatment.
Yes, we all know that, but there will still be enough who require serious c are that the hospitals won't be able to handle them. How many end up needi ng intervention to save their lives depends on the multiplier. With the nu mbers rising exponentially the multiplier isn't really important. That wil l just change the date of hospital overload from a Monday to a Thursday.
hip and we don't have it. If we had a real leader rather than the Real Est ate Mogul in Chief we likely would have had decisive action weeks ago and n ot have to wait for state Governors to lead the federal government.
ing done. I guess I can give up on that hope.
erate a bare-faced liar as their leader, and that's really harmful.
Only in dire situations like we have now.
I can't imagine that any reasonable government would have reacted more quic kly and would have been much more proactive about isolating people and putt ing the nation into a lock down. No one in their right mind can continue t hinking we are going to slide through this. Not even Larkin. By this week end I predict even he will understand the need for dramatic action.
--
Rick C.
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-++-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
I would not expect many evictions. With many people unemployed and unable to pay rent, evictions just means the property is vacant and not generating any income. Better to let the tenants to continue to live in the apartmen t with the understanding of rent being paid when the tenant can pay.
If I had rental property I would prefer the property was inhabited and thus somewhat protected from vandals.
Those are valid points that I have put to my daughter, who is extremely worried that her new make-and-sell ice cream[1] business will be screwed.
My attitude: I'll be satisfied if we both survive the next year. The business can be put into hibernation and there's money saved for a rainy day - just like this.
I hope if continue to put them across she will believe me :)
Lots of people don't have such resources available.
[1] e.g. blueberry and spiced gin, yum. On principle, she will never make a vanilla flavour :)
I have always taken up with one woman at a time, in long-term relationships. Smart and slim and cute ones with good jobs, who weren't ever easy and who like geeky engineers. A side benefit is being remarkably disease-free.
Not prowling around for fresh meat and fighting hangovers leaves more time and energy for designing electronics.
It's a nice combination, one good woman and a lot of design. Try it some time.
(Mo reads in bed and I burn up grid-paper pads scribbling circuits. She thinks it's cute.)
--
John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
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