Why You Must Act Now (2023 Update)

No, you haven't said anything of value. I especially like your comment about the exponential growth of the test kits. Do test kits make more test kits? Is that how it works?

What utter BS!

It is sufficient detail in the context of the UK recommended actions, which I'm not going to repeat in full here. Summary: new persistent cough or temp >37.8 and you and your family should self isolate for 7 days - and not go to a GP or hospital unless you get significantly worse.

Yesterday somebody from the town 4 miles in one direction died in the hospital 4 miles in the other direction.

The assumption here is that "everybody" (i.e. 60-80% depending on who you listen to) will catch it sooner or later. In the absence of other information, that seems likely.

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That is too little, too late. By the time you show symptoms, you have like ly been infecting people for the better part of a week. That was my point. In the early stages of the pandemic the testing should be much more aggre ssive in order to identify as many patients for quarantine as possible. On ce it gets past the stage where the large numbers of infections make it imp ractical to test widely nothing can be done about that first week of being infectious other than social distancing. In China social distancing is the law and enforced by authorities. Here it is voluntary and much less effec tive.

Not sure what that is supposed to mean. What is the context?

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It would seem you didn't read the link Win posted. China currently has a c umulative infection level that is far, far below 80% and it is rising very, very slowly, slower than in the US or the UK. So clearly widespread infec tion is not inevitable. But it takes extreme measures to deal with it.

Who do you listen to?

It is interesting that some countries are so different from others.

Tom Gardner wrote in news:7vObG.747741 $ snipped-for-privacy@fx35.am:

True. It does not change the fact that a lot of ineptitude was (and still is) involved at the "management level".

We got saddled a while ago, why 'examine' it? That is the 'logic'?

Well, so we can actually get numbers on spread vectors. Remember, it will happen again. So despite the fact that it will change little, it WILL provide useable data.

Please, tell us about it. What is so different between countries? What do you make of this?

Sure, but circuits are simple. Even then, I don't always trust Spice.

In an early stage that is impractical.

Agreed.

Nothing more than that this is becoming closer and more personal. Some people here need to realise that will happen.

I am well aware of all that.

Good question, but one without an easy answer.

Of course. But many models and simulations are useful, even though they are incorrect.

Consider the models of resistance/resistors, or "ground" or...

All are convenient fictions with limited correspondence with reality. Knowing the /limits/ of where they are /useful/ is rather important!

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are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's cert ainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at lea st October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, whe n the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right . Speaking of tests, someone needs to get on the ball and develop an ELISA for this virus. This testing methodology is about 10-25 % the cost of a PCR , the type they're now using, and it doesn't require a sophisticated lab to process the results. Sampling is a pin prick and they can really go to tow n assaying the entire population of the world if they want to. Singapore is about 90% of the way there but haven't developed anything scalable to comm ercial yet.

Budget? What's that? These federal agencies have any number of emergency fu nds they can tap into if they need money. The stuff about Trump budget cuts is all political and has nothing to do with CDC mismanagement. And you know what the test kits were originally intended for? It wasn't a m edical diagnostic, it was case confirmation. And then they were going to as sign investigators to each confirmation to hunt down all the contacts and t ry to determine the source of the infection. That's an idiotic idea and it became apparent within a week there aren't enough resources in the world to make that work. Now they've completely flip-flopped on the individual-cent ric treatment to locking down the whole country. They don't need test kits.

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You mean why do smart people sometimes post salient points and assume their audience can fill in the rest?

Because it saves time, and it's an efficient way to communicate when the audience is well-matched.

Cheers, James Arthur

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Exactly the opposite. The early stages are the only time you can get a gri p on the problem. Once it starts to take off it's too late and the problem is not just larger but hugely different.

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I lurk in a UK ham group and early on one guy was talking about infections from Chinese packages and another guy talked that it "hadn't reached the UK and probably wouldn't".

Much as Edward tried to impress on us, there was no point where the epidemi ologists didn't think it would be a world wide pandemic even if they wouldn 't use that term. Back in January I know I was still waiting to see how ef fective the isolation would be. Now we know that if you think your country has a few hundred infections, there are likely 10,000 infected people. I saw a report that said 80 people were infected at a conference where there were no people with any symptoms.

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I'm asking who YOU listen to. Obviously you are getting your information s omewhere.

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 4:06:43 PM UTC-4, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrot e:

funds they can tap into if they need money. The stuff about Trump budget cu ts is all political and has nothing to do with CDC mismanagement.

Perhaps, but the matter of disbanding the NSC directorate for global health and security and bio-defense was all on Trump. No, it isn't a catastrophy that we didn't have that group for this crisis. But in the words of Dr. A nthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infecti ous Diseases at the National Institute of Health, "It would be nice if the office was still there... we worked very well with that office.?

Instead we have Pence.

medical diagnostic, it was case confirmation. And then they were going to assign investigators to each confirmation to hunt down all the contacts and try to determine the source of the infection. That's an idiotic idea and i t became apparent within a week there aren't enough resources in the world to make that work. Now they've completely flip-flopped on the individual-ce ntric treatment to locking down the whole country. They don't need test kit s.

Of course they need test kits. They still need to confirm diagnoses for tr eatment and isolation. At this point we don't need to be lumping colds in with COVID-19. It is also important to track the disease to tell which mea sures work and which measures don't.

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You mean he has nothing worth saying so why say it? Yes, I agree.

The CDC has been a hot mess from day 1--they're the medical equivalent of the Army Corps of Engineers.

They did have a point about the WHO test kits though--IIRC they have/had a 42% false negative rate.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

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Taiwan has done an excellent job with far less heavy-handed measures. The SARS experience was an excellent dry-run. A pity the rest of the world didn't take heed.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

(Who has made very few changes so far, because he works 1.7 miles from home, with one family member and nobody else around.)

The press reports the news of the day, and this is news. Nothing about the press response is out-of-line, that I can tell.

Perhaps it's just the scabrous news feeds are you grazing on?

Press coverage is not a problem, compared with deaths from a new disease. There's not an Italian death every five minutes because of news announcements.

The press coverage is useful, because of the services/venues being impacted. A library visit, or dinner out with friends? Not this week. Ask again in a month.

xactly "might change subsequent actions"? Anyone who tests positive will b e treated for the disease even if this only means self quarantine at home. But if many are not tested, many infected won't know to be quarantined.

Rick, Have you considered that there might not be that much difference between so cial distancing and self-quarantine at home?

How many people (really!) are going to STAY HOME on quarantine, especially on an honor-system basis? I can almost hear the rationalizations pouring i n.. "It's only a quick run to the corner store. I'll be quick." Etc...

We have instances of criminals with ankle bracelets breaking house arrest! (Of course, one could argue that criminals are stupid.)

I believe "the masses" will mostly put up with slight inconveniences for a while, out of novelty it nothing else. But I have to wonder how much coope ration there'll really be in the long term (meaning months), if it comes to that.

True.

Unimportant. What you need to do, is figure how the 'few parameters' help you survive or die, especially when those parameters are adjustable. Sometimes, don't you find a circuit works better with different component values? And don't you try to predict where those gains can be found?