If they locked down the whole country for a year - perhaps.
Hubei Province was locked down for about two months.
If you find a island of infection, you lock down that island. The average g ap between infection and visible symptoms is about five days and if you can social distance vigorously enough that you don't need all that many five d ay intervals for the outbreak to go away completely.
John Larkin lacks the wit to understand what's going, let alone what is bei ng said about it. If he can't understand what is being said, he thinks that the comments are "hysterical". It justifies his incomprehension, but it is n't actually correct.
This is mindless optimism. The disease hasn't killed anybody younger than n ine yet, but it does kill some healthy young adults, and the death rate ris es as you get older. It has been claimed to be around 10% for 70- to 80-yea r-olds risng to 15% for people older than 80.
I did read that Taiwan and some other Asian locations are doing better than typical because of their prior experiences, but no details. Do you know w hat they are and aren't doing that is working?
I'm just not convinced the "social distancing" thing is going to work here. It's a limited measure in what will soon be a dire situation.
I've been in contact with a few friends today and it seems a number of them are taking this seriously, but can't just quit their jobs. But it seems c ompanies are starting to realize they can't expect people to come to work o nly to get sick. Maybe a four week shutdown will cut contact enough to get the disease under control. But no one at the top (or near it) seems to re alize that or at least is not in a position to discuss it publicly.
The data is just so clear. In less than two weeks we will be where China w as around their peak. The numbers don't lie. We don't need Larkin's suspe ct simulations. Anyone can do the math, even him. An engineer should be a ble to believe the numbers.
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Material for a PCR test coats ?2,50 as was stated in an interview with the CEO of a local company in southern Berlin that mass produces the stuff. Work time for a test is 6 minutes, total wall clock time 6 hours. Total cost is abt. ?10 . Here is no shortage of tests.
A black African country sent their embassador in person to make sure the tests are delivered asap. They know they are f*cked when corona spreads there. The CEO complained that he may not send tests to Iran, and you Americans wonder why everybody loves you around the world.
And the day after his reclamation, DT tries to buy a leading vaccine
Institute, run by the German government - for *exclusive* US use of the results. He got as far as in his Greenland adventure. Vulture a****ole.
are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certa inly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at leas t October,
I wonder why Fred thinks that. The first case seems to have been recorded o n the 1st December 2019, in China.
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If it had been circulating in the US since October - six months, 180 days o r 36 5-day infection cycles - everybody in the US would have had it by the end of December 2019, absent the social distancing measures that the US doe sn't really seem to fully understand.
kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.
When people start dying of the Covid-19 infection, it does get noticed. It takes a couple of hundred to get the attention of the medical establishment , but the progress of the disease seems to be different enough from influen za that the doctors treating the patients do notice.
It's blindingly obvious that it is more serious than the usual seasonal flu , and the interest in the media reflects that. Some of the responses are hy sterical and over the top, and lots of them are ill-informed, but it's a se rious problem even if John Larkin can't quite understand why.
are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's cert ainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at lea st October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, whe n the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right .
If the Covid-19 virus had started circulating in the US in October, with an R0 of three, and a five day interval between infection and visible symptom s (and peak capacity to infect other people) the whole of the US would have been infected in 90 days - which would have been January this year.
People dying of the disease is a pretty effective indicator of it's presenc e. That's what kicked the authorities in Iran into recognising that they ha d it.
Test kits give you an earlier indication - the first US death had been test ed, but the result wasn't available until after they had died.
lu, and the interest in the media reflects that. Some of the responses are hysterical and over the top, and lots of them are ill-informed, but it's a serious problem even if John Larkin can't quite understand why.
I really can't imagine anyone in this entire group is paying any attention to Larkin on this matter. While there are other denialists on the other to pics Larkin rants about, there are very few idiots claiming we can ignore t he disease and take our family out to dinner. Mostly just politicians.
Larkin is not a politician, but he is a very special kind of idiot. One wh o is literally incapable of seeing when he has no idea what he is talking a bout.
It's precious that Larkin can't understand an exponential curve. But that should come as no surprise as he often talks about his poor math skills. B ut mostly Larkin is hiding with his head in the sand. It's hard to not app reciate the full extent of this matter at this point. It really takes a sp ecial kind of moron.
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Rick C.
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miologists didn't think it would be a world wide pandemic even if they woul dn't use that term.
I was not trying to impress anybody. Just saying that the number came out of China didn't make sense and the world was too competent about the situat ion.
tion would be. Now we know that if you think your country has a few hundre d infections, there are likely 10,000 infected people. I saw a report that said 80 people were infected at a conference where there were no people wi th any symptoms.
Yes, it's the same situation in the US and many other countries, but as lea st they don't arrest and silence people just speaking out about the discrep ancy.
John Larkin wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@4ax.com:
Were the population of the US told to stay at home locked inside, we would NOT be at our windows singing songs of joy and greeting each of our neighbors.
On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:09:19 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wr ote:
die-
le are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's ce rtainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at l east October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, w hen the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and rig ht.
ving a reasonably *high* risk of exposure. That's a very skewed sample. Bun ches of people have already been infected and recovered, we'll never know.
Covid-19 is a very infectious virus. If a bunch of people had been infected early on, they would have infected a much larger bunch of people.
If - as Fred claims - the virus was circulating in the US in October, the e ntire country would have been infected some time in January - assuming an R
0 of three and five day infection cycle 3^18 is about 330 million, and 18 f ive days cycles takes 90 days.
althy people have only very mild symptoms they barely notice.
But some of them still die. Even 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million deaths an d that would have been noticed. The natural death rate in the US is about 4 million people per year, and the Corid-19 deaths would have been concentra ted in the last month of so of the epidemic.
Iran noticed that it had a Corvid-19 problem when they'd clocked up about 1
00 deaths. they are now up to 853 with 15,000 cases of whom 5000 have recov ered.
ifetime of breathing heavily polluted air, and that does not bode well for surviving a serious respiratory infection in any case. The mortality data f rom China may not be applicable to first world western countries.
Perhaps, but it is still killing people. The Diamond Princess cruise ship h as 696 cases of whom 456 have recovered, 6 have died and 15 are still in a serious or critical condition.
On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:27:04 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wr ote:
die-
le are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's ce rtainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at l east October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, w hen the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and rig ht.
uantified this effect:
ducing Pollution
34fe
alue.
But there are fools around who claim that Covid-19 has been circulating in the US since October.
The kind of insights that James Arthur enjoys are at the level of "socialis m is exactly the same as communism". They aren't actually insights - more l ike shared delusions.
James Arthur understands that while John Larkin isn't his kind of right-win g nitwit, he's gullible enough to believe the same kind of nonsense.
demiologists didn't think it would be a world wide pandemic even if they wo uldn't use that term.
ame out of China didn't make sense and the world was too complacent about t he situation.
Sadly, dreaming up numbers you liked better, but couldn't find any evidence to support wasn't a way of getting yourself taken seriously.
lation would be. Now we know that if you think your country has a few hund red infections, there are likely 10,000 infected people. I saw a report th at said 80 people were infected at a conference where there were no people with any symptoms.
That is the unique selling point of the Covid-19 virus. More recent comment s emphasise that you get progressively more infectious as you get closer to showing symptoms - the virus has to multiply in your body before there are many virus particles to shed, and some of the new virus particles are infe cting your cells rather than heading out and infecting other peoples.
east they don't arrest and silence people just for speaking out about the d iscrepancy.
That does seem to have been lower level response at the start of the epidem ic. Totalitarian regimes work like that out of habit.
There are plenty of other unhelpful reactions, and Trump has managed exhibi t quite a few of them.
exactly "might change subsequent actions"? Anyone who tests positive will be treated for the disease even if this only means self quarantine at home . But if many are not tested, many infected won't know to be quarantined.
social distancing and self-quarantine at home?
y on an honor-system basis? I can almost hear the rationalizations pouring in.. "It's only a quick run to the corner store. I'll be quick." Etc...
! (Of course, one could argue that criminals are stupid.)
a while, out of novelty it nothing else. But I have to wonder how much coo peration there'll really be in the long term (meaning months), if it comes to that.
I normally have at least 30 days worth of food on hand, because of being disabled. As long as I don't run out of water, I also have a 90 day supply of bulk, freeze dried food. Due to several times of being stuck at home fo r over 30 days at a time, it's the norm to keep enough on hand. I see my VA doctor this week, then I'll have no reason to leave the house for weeks.
Having an expert (well known epidemiologist) as health minister was also of great help. They started to take care of this beginning of January and identified potentially infected people and forced mandatory, checked quarantine with heavy fines (1Mio TW$) in case of violations. Cases were below 50 for 23 mio population a few days ago, now we have some imported cases.
Then put force to it. Here in Taiwan two guys have been sentenced 1 mio TW$ for violating mandatory quarantine. One will probably go to jail because he lied about his travel history, was infected and infected somebody else.
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