atality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.
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John Robertson is a climate change sceptic, which means - in practice - tha t he's a gullible sucker for climate change denail propaganda, like John La rkin.
John Larkin has learned enough not to post links to the propaganda websites that have influenced his thinking. John Robertson is a slower learner, and is still smarting from comments that labelled him a gullible twit.
He's too dim to appreciate the difference between the web-site I cited and the ones that have formed his thinking.
Some Chinese official who was concerned about certain Western news organisations alarmist reports said, and I quote: "It's not as bad as ebola or SARS." I'm guessing he thought this statement would be received as welcome reassurance!
Yes, put him on the Diamond Princess. One Super Spreader infected at least 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in south ease Asia.
are interested and associated, but not absorbed. And should European states men address us with the question, 'Will you join us in this undertaking?' w e should reply, ?Nay Sir, for we are an island race and we dwell am ong our own.?
Too bad they breached the island thing with a tunnel, multiple ferries, pow erlines and global trade. These days no one is an island and it is rather pointless to think that way. This goes for Great Britain as well as China and the rest of the world needs to recognize the fact as well.
We are only islands in our own minds.
--
Rick C.
--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
He won't, though. You can post data from the most unimpeachable source but it won't be good enough for Bill Sloman, who just loves an argument for the sake of it and you are being sucked in by him. Many years ago, he was a valuable contributor here, but those days are long gone. He has since become, for reasons known only to him, one of the worst trolls on this group and the only way to prevail against him is to not engage in futile exchanges with him in the first place.
st 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in south eas e Asia.
Infection rates depend on environment. An air-conditioned cruise ship with lots of social activities, and lots of elderly passengers with compromised immune systems is a great environment for a virus.
Even so it is pretty unlikely that a single person directly infected 61 oth ers - they probably infected a few others, each of whom infected a few more . An R0 of three would give you three secondary infections, nine tertiary i nfections, and 27 fourth generation infections for total of forty. Pushing R0 up to fours gives you a total of 53 in the same number of generations
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The total number infected is still rising, but the rate of increase is fina lly decreasing, so the Chinese program to reduce R0 by getting people to st ay at home does seem to be working.
east 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in south e ase Asia.
h lots of social activities, and lots of elderly passengers with compromise d immune systems is a great environment for a virus.
thers - they probably infected a few others, each of whom infected a few mo re. An R0 of three would give you three secondary infections, nine tertiary infections, and 27 fourth generation infections for total of forty. Pushin g R0 up to fours gives you a total of 53 in the same number of generations
If that happens within a week, then all bets are off. The cruise itinerary is likely around a week.
nally decreasing, so the Chinese program to reduce R0 by getting people to stay at home does seem to be working.
The overnight infection in surrounding area (so called quarantine area) wen t up around 10%; so, it's consistent with Ro of 2. Actually, the entire co untry is effectively in quarantine.
2/7 2/8 BJ 274 297 SH 257 277 LS 711 772 RS 851 914 RW 600 661 CT 970 1034 Someone also mentioned that the police and military infections are not incl uded. They are also part of the mobile infection carriers.
Anyone reading the thread can find out the context if they don't already know it. Failure to trim follow-ups is poor netiquette and one of the habits of some here that drives me round the bend. Having been on Usenet since dial-up days when B/W was expensive I've long been in the habit of trimming the fat from my follow-ups. It's still regarded as good practice, even though B/W is now cheap as chips. But you're a troll, so the *last* thing you GaS about is good practice.
Cursitor Doom was around the bend long before he started posting here. We aren't making him any worse - he's sea-green incorruptible.
been in the habit of trimming the fat from my follow-ups. It's still regar ded as good practice, even though B/W is now cheap as chips. But you're a troll , so the *last* thing you GaS about is good practice.
Cursitor Doom is the troll here, and one of his trollish habits is accusing everybody else of being a troll. Tom Gardner isn't remotely troll-like, bu t Cursitor Doom is far enough out of his tree to make the claim and not rea lise how badly it reflects on his judgement.
least 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in south ease Asia.
ith lots of social activities, and lots of elderly passengers with compromi sed immune systems is a great environment for a virus.
others - they probably infected a few others, each of whom infected a few more. An R0 of three would give you three secondary infections, nine tertia ry infections, and 27 fourth generation infections for total of forty. Push ing R0 up to fours gives you a total of 53 in the same number of generation s
ry is likely around a week.
The thing about the corona virus is that infected people spread the infecti on early, well before they show any other sign of infection (like a fever).
They won't shed many virus particles early on, but an enclosed air-conditio ned cruise ship means that every virus has a pretty good chance of finding somebody to infect.
finally decreasing, so the Chinese program to reduce R0 by getting people t o stay at home does seem to be working.
ent up around 10%; so, it's consistent with Ro of 2. Actually, the entire country is effectively in quarantine.
cluded. They are also part of the mobile infection carriers.
Your idea of "someone" seems to include a lot of twits who are just as gull ible and alarmist as you are. Police and military personnel who get infecte d are going to get reported and quarantined just like everybody else. The l ast thing you want is the people who are checking up on the rest of the pop ulation being sick and infecting the people they are checking.
at least 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in sou th ease Asia.
with lots of social activities, and lots of elderly passengers with compro mised immune systems is a great environment for a virus.
61 others - they probably infected a few others, each of whom infected a fe w more. An R0 of three would give you three secondary infections, nine tert iary infections, and 27 fourth generation infections for total of forty. Pu shing R0 up to fours gives you a total of 53 in the same number of generati ons
rary is likely around a week.
tion early, well before they show any other sign of infection (like a fever ).
But not within a week. Most carriers need a few days of hosting the virus.
ioned cruise ship means that every virus has a pretty good chance of findin g somebody to infect.
That's the same condition as in most WuHan quarantined buildings.
s finally decreasing, so the Chinese program to reduce R0 by getting people to stay at home does seem to be working.
went up around 10%; so, it's consistent with Ro of 2. Actually, the entir e country is effectively in quarantine.
included. They are also part of the mobile infection carriers.
llible and alarmist as you are. Police and military personnel who get infec ted are going to get reported and quarantined just like everybody else. The last thing you want is the people who are checking up on the rest of the p opulation being sick and infecting the people they are checking.
They just find a cop death inside his apartment. Not in hospital and certa inly not in the official database. Infected PLAs are just MIAs. The local authority does not even contact or report PLA conditions.
d at least 61 (as of now). It more than double many infection rate R0 in s outh ease Asia.
ip with lots of social activities, and lots of elderly passengers with comp romised immune systems is a great environment for a virus.
d 61 others - they probably infected a few others, each of whom infected a few more. An R0 of three would give you three secondary infections, nine te rtiary infections, and 27 fourth generation infections for total of forty. Pushing R0 up to fours gives you a total of 53 in the same number of genera tions
nerary is likely around a week.
ection early, well before they show any other sign of infection (like a fev er).
s.
Elderly people with compromised immune systems need fewer days than the reg ular population, and that's the population that cruise ships cater to.
itioned cruise ship means that every virus has a pretty good chance of find ing somebody to infect.
Once the cruise ship got locked down into quarantine, the transmission prob ability would shrink to much the same levels as in the Wuhan quarantined bu ildings, but the 61 people who did get infected would have been infected wh en the ship wasn't locked down.
You seem to miss the point that transmission probabilities are heavily infl uenced by the way people behave. Cities and cruise ships get locked down to reduce transmission probabilities, and it works.
is finally decreasing, so the Chinese program to reduce R0 by getting peop le to stay at home does seem to be working.
a) went up around 10%; so, it's consistent with Ro of 2. Actually, the ent ire country is effectively in quarantine.
t included. They are also part of the mobile infection carriers.
gullible and alarmist as you are. Police and military personnel who get inf ected are going to get reported and quarantined just like everybody else. T he last thing you want is the people who are checking up on the rest of the population being sick and infecting the people they are checking.
ainly not in the official database.
People drop dead for all sorts of reasons. If he died of heart attack, as p eople do, he wouldn't be listed as infected (because he probably wasn't) or as a plague victim.
or report PLA conditions.
The Peoples Liberation Army would report separately - for fairly obvious re asons. The fact that local authority wouldn't be in the loop doesn't mean t hat any infections or deaths wouldn't end up in the overall statistics.
Or so DLUNU thinks. Like much of his thinking, it's not entirely correct.
He's nowhere near as hopeless as Cursitor Doom, who is definitely our number one gullible twit, and unpleasant with it, and not quite as irascible as Phil Allison, but he's not exactly one of our more positive features either.
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