OT: More on the CoronaVirus

I prefer the non-panic, science based sites:

John

I find this more informative.

The number of people infected is still rising exponentially.

The Chinese efforts to lock down their population and minimise the opportun ities for the infection to spread hasn't yet shown up in any drop in the nu mber of new infections, which isn't all that surprising, since it takes a c ouple of days for people to get sick enough to need to go to their doctor a nd get tested.

Nobody is going to start feeling safe until the rate of new infections star ts decreasing, and even that might reflect a change in the virus that slows down the time it takes before it's victims become visibly sick. Of course that would make it less likely to kill you, which would be a bonus.

About a quarter of common colds are corona virus infections, so that's wher e evolution would take it. It may take a while to get there.

ontained/

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

The CDC and the WHO are chronically unable to find their asses with both hands, a map, GPS, radar, etc., and the people who actually know largely aren't talking.

The CDC's finest hour was during the anthrax scare, when they continually asserted that the anthrax powder wasn't weaponized, whereas it turned out to have come from Fort Detrick's bioweapons program. They'd run the sample through an autoclave before looking at it, which "turned the spores into hockey pucks."

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs 
Principal Consultant 
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics 
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics 
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 

http://electrooptical.net 
http://hobbs-eo.com

te:

And who exactly IS worldometers.info? They have no list of principals of

c--------------------(quote)-------------------------

Worldometer shows estimated current numbers based on statistics and projections from the most reputable official organizations.

Our sources include the United Nations Population Division, World Health

Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank.

We analyze the available data, perform statistical analysis, and build our algorithm which feeds the real time estimate.

Our counters have been licensed for the United Nations Conference Rio+20, BBC News, U2 concert, World Expo, and prestigious museums and events worldwide.

------------------(end quote)---------------

Since when does an anonymous web site (godaddy & domainsbyproxy - whois.net) have credence?

They have a list of javascript monitoring tools:

?addthis.com ?ajax.googleapis.com

-

?google-analytics.com ?googlesyndication.com ?googletagmanager.com ?pagefair.com ?pagefair.net ?pub.network ?quantserve.com ?realtimestatistics.net

Sounds suspiciously like someone with an agenda set this up...

And this is your idea of valid science? Unaccountable web sites?

John :-#(#

You title that "more on the coronavirus??? The speaker is a pilot, he doesn 't know much about viruses. The video is not "more" of anything. As far as the aircraft goes, he only talks about the 737 cabin air conditioning, whic h is hardly a virus safe process.

sn't know much about viruses. The video is not "more" of anything. As far a s the aircraft goes, he only talks about the 737 cabin air conditioning, wh ich is hardly a virus safe process.

Yeah, he also only really addressees the issue of recirculating the air whe n there is still an issue of being infected the first time the air passes p ast you. Maybe my info is wrong, but I've been told the air enters at vari ous spots, but it moves the length of the passenger cabin so everyone ahead of you can give you an infection.

--

  Rick C. 

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Old Bill runs any reports he cites past Snopes and believes everything they OK is 100% truthful. Wot a twit! :-D

te:

They list their references with each statistic. You know, like anyone who wishes to report information credibly.

Statistics of the Month

566Wuhan coronavirus deaths this year Quick facts:

Wuhan Coronavirus Update Tracking confirmed cases and deaths by country, transmission & fatality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coro navirus cases, etc.

Sources:

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organiza tion (WHO) 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S -. U.S. Centers for Disea se Control and Prevention (CDC) Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission of the People? ?s Republic of China (NHC) Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Hea lth World Development Indicators (WDI) - World Bank

All of those references are links.

--

  Rick C. 

  +- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
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who wishes to report information credibly.

ality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.

anization (WHO)

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

My point is the web site is anonymous. One has no idea who or what organization/country is behind it. As a result one has to implicitly trust that they are actually taking the data as stated and presenting it

accurately as who has time to verify their sources.

Anonymous web sites are always suspect in my view - the fact they claim to use data from legitimate sites does not mean they actually DO compile

the data without their own agenda in mind. Who the heck are they and how

does one know they are any good at what they claim to do?

Why aren't they proud of their web site? Proud enough to put their names

on it...

Go the real sources, the ones that present the unfiltered data and think

for yourself.

John :-#(#

e:

rote:

of

th

who wishes to report information credibly.

ality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.

anization (WHO)

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

I think the current infection is around 100,000. Assumptions: First 4 generations are uncontrolled grow with R0 of 4. Currently in WH and SH is around 3. Rest of China is between 2 and 3. Rest of the world is around 2.

WuHan official data is not believable because they are overwhelmed.

12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10 2/17 2/24 3/2 WH 41 164 656 2624 10496 41984 167936 335872 671744 134348 8 SH 98 294 882 2646 7938 23814 71442 BJ 113 226 452 904 1808 3616 7232 US 11 22 44 88 176

WH:WuHan SH:ShanHai BJ:Beijing US:USA

I certainly didn't run that past Snopes.

The attraction of the website is that they post graphs or the number infected every day (and the numbers of deaths).

The actual numbers line up with other reputable reports, but none of the other places I've looked at shows the graphs.

Cursitor Doom is this groups most gullible twit, closely followed by John Larkin, and John Robertson. The fact that he has taken John Robertson seriously is just one more illustration of the fact that he's terminally gullible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

te:

They give graphs of total infections per day and total deaths per day.

Nobody else seems to - or at least none on the first few pages that google throws up.

The numbers tie up with other reputable sources, which is what matters.

It also fits with what their website says it does.

John Robertson is a little too dim to have noticed this.

He seems to get his climate change information from less reliable sources, and seems to think that being rude about the source works even when the sou rce is putting out reliable information, and doesn't have any obviously que stionable associations (as his sources seem to have).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

e:

rote:

of

th

who wishes to report information credibly.

ality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.

anization (WHO)

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

It doesn't take long, and in fact google throws up the day to day numbers a s soon as you include coronavirus in the search string.

In this case it is two numbers - total infections so far, and total deaths so far.

This isn't difficult to keep track of.

Probably because the world has a significant content of psychopathic nitwit s.

Jim Thompson claimed to have reported me to the FBI for dangerously un- American activities, and claimed (probably as some kind of joke in very poo r taste) to be sending hitmen to my address in Nijmegen when it leaked out.

Avoiding the attentions of that kind of lunatic is prudent. It wasn't an is sue back in 1996 (or whenever) when I started posting under my own name. It is now.

I do but they don't post the graphs that strike me as the most easily compr ehensible way of seeing what's going on, even if they do validate the graph s I linked to.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

The reported number for WuHan also line up exactly with the estimated beds in hospital, around 20,000. They can't accept anymore and won't record any higher number. Even with very conservative R0 of 2.2 after G4, the number should reach 100,000 now. HK is high of 1.8 with influx of mainlander. SH and BJ is unusually low with 1.4.

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G1

0 R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10 2/17 2/24 3/ 2 WH 2.2 41 164 656 2624 10496 41984 167936 369459 812809 17881 79 SH 1.4 98 137 192 268 376 527 73 7 BJ 1.4 113 158 221 310 434 607 85 0 LS 1.7 521 885 1505 2559 435 1 RS 1.7 566 962 1635 2780 472 7 RE 1.7 391 664 1129 1920 326 5 HK 1.8 17 30 55 99 17 8 US 1.5 11 16 24 37 5 5

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atality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.

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You can assume what you like.

There are bound to be more people infected than are reported, because an in fection isn't reported until the patient is sick enough to go to the doctor and get tested for the virus.

Guesswork about how many of them there might be is just guesswork.

Claiming that Wuhan's official data is unreliable because they are overwhel med rather ignores the enthusiasm with which the Chinese authorities moved in and built complete new hospitals.

There doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest that thye are anything lik e overwhelmed - 31,481 cases is a lot, but China a has about 1.38 billion p eople, and it's not a significant proportion of the total population.

It the numbers got up to Spanish Flu levels it might be a different story.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

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3/2 43488 1442 7232 176

infection isn't reported until the patient is sick enough to go to the doct or and get tested for the virus.

elmed rather ignores the enthusiasm with which the Chinese authorities move d in and built complete new hospitals.

The 3000 new beds are already included.

ike overwhelmed

Sure, the gov, is not. But the hospitals are overwhelmed. People gave up going to the hospital already.

t's not a significant proportion of the total population.

.

We will be there around end of the month. There will be enough hosts for m utations beyond G10.

rote:

ote:

whelmed rather ignores the enthusiasm with which the Chinese authorities mo ved in and built complete new hospitals.

like overwhelmed

p going to the hospital already.

And you know this because somebody whom you can't be bothered to identify h as told you this.

When the place is crawling with security people with infrared thermometers checking everybody for elevated body temperature, people don't get a choic e about "not going to the hospital". It probably won't be one of the existi ng hospitals, or the newly constructed emergency centers, but rather some h otel or school that has been taken over to serve as an emergency isolation centre.

The hospitals will be reserved for people who are dangerously sick.

it's not a significant proportion of the total population.

ry.

mutations beyond G10.

If your deluded fantasies happen to be correct. Your calculation - which I' ve snipped - sets the current R0 for Wuhan as 3.0.

Wuhan is in lock-down, which should take the R0 well below two. People have got mix quite frequently to get appreciable cross-infection, and that's ex actly what lock-down is intended to minimise.

Today's total infections has just fallen short of an exponential rise, whic h does suggest that the strategy is working. The lag between infection and a positive test result has to be at least a few days, so we are looking at the R0 from at least a couple of days ago.

It's a little too soon to say anything more, except that you are an alarmis t twit, but we've known that for some time.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

ote:

erwhelmed rather ignores the enthusiasm with which the Chinese authorities moved in and built complete new hospitals.

ng like overwhelmed

up going to the hospital already.

has told you this.

s checking everybody for elevated body temperature, people don't get a cho ice about "not going to the hospital". It probably won't be one of the exis ting hospitals, or the newly constructed emergency centers, but rather some hotel or school that has been taken over to serve as an emergency isolatio n centre.

d it's not a significant proportion of the total population.

tory.

or mutations beyond G10.

I've snipped - sets the current R0 for Wuhan as 3.0.

My updated number is 2.2 for Wuhan. Surrounding area (also in quarantine) is around 1.7, based on 5 days back projections. River South, River East, L ake South are more believable. Conditions in WuHan is much worst. I don't think it will be below 2.

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G1

0 R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10 2/17 2/24 3/ 2 WH 2.2 41 164 656 2624 10496 41984 167936 369459 812809 17881 79 SH 1.4 98 137 192 268 376 527 73 7 BJ 1.4 113 158 221 310 434 607 85 0 LS 1.7 521 885 1505 2559 435 1 RS 1.7 566 962 1635 2780 472 7 RE 1.7 391 664 1129 1920 326 5 HK 1.8 17 30 55 99 17 8 US 1.5 11 16 24 37 5 5

ve got mix quite frequently to get appreciable cross-infection, and that's exactly what lock-down is intended to minimise.

ich does suggest that the strategy is working. The lag between infection an d a positive test result has to be at least a few days, so we are looking a t the R0 from at least a couple of days ago.

So, you think WH is much better than RS, RE and LS? They are still going u p.

ist twit, but we've known that for some time.

I am using real Baidu report data. You can check it yourself.

e:

rote:

of

th

who wishes to report information credibly.

ality rates, incubation period, daily chart, flu, SARS, MERS comparison, US Coronavirus cases, etc.

anization (WHO)

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

If you don't have time to verify sources, just stay away from the Internet. Yes, it's that simple.

Or maybe you should read for yourself.

What are you going on about really?

--

  Rick C. 

  ++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  ++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209