If NASA scientists are right, the Thames will be freezing over again.

Good grief. Cold kills.

--

John Larkin, President       Highland Technology Inc
www.highlandtechnology.com   jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com   

Precision electronic instrumentation
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Well, as the old saw says, it's an ill wind that blows nobody good. We've had an Indian summer that lasted all the way through January. The last couple of nights it's been about freezing, but we've hardly had a frost all winter. On Groundhog Day, everyone was saying that they didn't care if ol' Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow or not, because another 6 weeks of _this_ winter would be no big hardship.

Folks elsewhere that aren't used to it are having a bad time, though. :(

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

160 North State Road #203
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510
845-480-2058

hobbs at electrooptical dot net
http://electrooptical.net

It's been balmy and sunny in San Francisco this week, and overall warm and dry so far this winter. That's nice for walking and gardening, but bad for skiing and for the water supply.

If you were to (somehow) plot mean human welfare against mean planetary temperature, I'd guess we're currently located at an up-slope, wild guess +5% per degree C.

--

John Larkin, President       Highland Technology Inc
www.highlandtechnology.com   jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com   

Precision electronic instrumentation
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(...)

I'm sure you are right.

The meanest humans I know are doing much better than average.

--Winston

Now plot it against local temperature.

--

John Devereux

Hi!

You simply has to read this article:

The heat period (1937-1947) variability and extreme weather "drowns" compared to the weather the last 10-15 years! (see among others figure

5, 7 in the article):

10 November 2011, Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice:

And GW do not exclude severe winters:

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (2010, November 17). Global warming could cool down northern temperatures in winter. ScienceDaily:

Citat: "... "Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it." ... Warming of the air over the Barents-Kara Sea seems to bring cold winter winds to Europe. "This is not what one would expect," Petoukhov says. "Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far away sea-ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex teleconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism." ..."

Compare this to the "tiny" GW. Comparison between 2000-2010 with

1937-1947 hot period - earth middle temperature has risen 0.44°C compared to the 1937-1947 hot period:

/Glenn

That last line pretty much sums up the current state of climate modeling.

--

John Larkin, President       Highland Technology Inc
www.highlandtechnology.com   jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com   

Precision electronic instrumentation
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Custom timing and laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
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Isn't that pretty much expected from a chaotic system?

Yes. Everything causes everything, so more CO2 *does* cause a winter storm. But less CO2 would cause different winter storms. The bottom line is that climate models do great modeling the past, given that parameters are tweaked to do so.

Every time something new and unexpected happens, an explanation, like this one, is manufactured.

--

John Larkin, President
Highland Technology, Inc

jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Precision electronic instrumentation
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators
Custom laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
VME thermocouple, LVDT, synchro   acquisition and simulation

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Check the publication dates. The Barents- and Kara-Sea ice story was a real prediction.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Weather is chaotic - over periods longer than about ten days. Climate doesn't seem to be chaotic - John Larkin hasn't yet worked out that climate and weather are subtlety different concepts, so climate doesn't have to be chaotic even if weather is.

Try not to make the same mistake. It makes you look ignorant.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

You don't believe in derivatives?

--

John Larkin, President       Highland Technology Inc
www.highlandtechnology.com   jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com   

Precision electronic instrumentation
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators
Custom timing and laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
VME  analog, thermocouple, LVDT, synchro, tachometer
Multichannel arbitrary waveform generators

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Of course I believe in derivatives, but since I know a bit more than you do, I get to believe in non-linear responses to a range of environmental factors, and second order partial derivatives to describe how "human welfare" - and other ill-defined scoring functions

- vary with - say - rainfall and temperature at the same time.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Word salad. Hand waving. You know so much about so many things that you are paralyzed.

--

John Larkin, President       Highland Technology Inc
www.highlandtechnology.com   jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com   

Precision electronic instrumentation
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators
Custom timing and laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
VME  analog, thermocouple, LVDT, synchro, tachometer
Multichannel arbitrary waveform generators

Red herring.

Thanks for the heads-up. I'll ignore your subsequent posts then. ;)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

(Who spent the morning goofing off, but has to get back to work.)

-- Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

160 North State Road #203 Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 845-480-2058

hobbs at electrooptical dot net

So now we have a name for something that has been happening for millions of years.

--

John Larkin, President
Highland Technology, Inc

jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Precision electronic instrumentation
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators
Custom laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
VME thermocouple, LVDT, synchro   acquisition and simulation

If enough people make enough predictions, some will be right. Remember David Viner's claim that children will not know what snow is in the future?

--

John Larkin, President
Highland Technology, Inc

jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Precision electronic instrumentation
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators
Custom laser controllers
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links
VME thermocouple, LVDT, synchro   acquisition and simulation

years

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And the substantive content of "You don't believe in derivatives?" is?

You'd have to come up with some justification to demonstrate that that wasn't hand-waving, and you really don't have the skills to do it.

Paralysed? Not really. Maybe too easily distracted. Nobody is offering me money to pursue any particular goal, and thirty years in industry did teach me to keep any eye on financial advantage.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen