What are the physical manifestations of global warming that we can actually MEASURE and OBSERVE?
When it comes to making important policy decisions that effect all of us, there needs to be a clear distinction between PREDICTIONS and SIMULATIONS vs. physical MEASUREMENTS and OBSERVATIONS. To make an analogy to electronics, are you going to make major decisions that impact the economic health of your company based solely upon the results of PSPICE simulations or are you going to build prototypes and make real measurements?
1) CO2 CONCENTRATION The measured increase in CO2 concentration is well established. The CAUSE of the increase is not well established. The measured increase is within the same order of magnitude as the amount of CO2 civilization is putting into the atmosphere therefore theory that the CO2 increase is anthropogenic is a reasonable possibility but not a 100% certainty. The CO2 concentration has varied widely well before the use of fossil fuels. The increase in CO2 concentration is conclusive but the cause of the increase is not conclusive.2) GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE The measured global temperature increase we measure today is very small and is within the noise of normal weather variations. There are no conclusive measurements that can show the cause of this small temperature increase is due to CO2 or to sun spots or to anything else. Predictions that there will be dangerous climate temperature increases in the future are based on simulations. The simulations assume that the temperature rise is caused by the C02 concentration increase and that the CO2 increase is anthropogenic. The cause of the small measured global temperature increase is not conclusive.
3) SEA LEVEL INCREASE The measured global sea level rise today is very small also. There are no conclusive measurements that can show this small increase has anything to do with CO2 or temperature or anything else. Predictions that there will be dangerous increases in sea level in the future are based on simulations. The cause of the small measured sea level rise is not conclusive.4) POLAR ICE The measured decrease in Arctic polar ice is well established. The measured increase in Antarctic polar ice is also well established. There are no conclusive measurements or physical evidence that indicate a dangerous trend.
If we did not have sensitive scientific instruments, we would not even be aware of some of the small changes that have been measured. These observations are interesting and worthy of further study. However, there is no conclusive physical evidence that anything dangerous is actually happening.
Does it make sense to base a national and world energy policy on simulations without conclusive physical evidence?
Does it make sense to levy a carbon tax or establish a cap and trade bureaucracy, without conclusive physical evidence?
Does it make sense to use resources to build large carbon capture facilities to sequester CO2 underground without conclusive physical evidence?
Does it make sense to forgo the use of our oil and coal resources without conclusive physical evidence?
Regardless of the validity of AGW, we do need to address the issue of our energy supply. We DO need to develop alternative energy sources. We do need to develop renewable energy sources. We do need to improve energy efficiency. We do need to consider nuclear energy. These are all forward moving productive steps for civilization to progress and improve the quality of life.
However, imposing taxes, building CO2 sequestration plants, creating a cap and trade bureaucracy and demonizing oil and coal without CONCLUSIVE physical evidence of a real problem just does not make any sense.
Mark