San Francisco voters pass 'Overpaid Executive Tax'

Jan 24, 2021 80 Replies

The argument is that the computer models don't work for weather but work for climate. The reality is that it takes longer for climate sims to be demonstrated as nonsense, which gives the modelers more time to make excuses and hack new programs that hindcast but don't predict. "The models are better now and we have more powerful computers and we'll all be dead in 12 years or give us more money."

We still use wind tunnels for testing wing shapes. Simulation doesn't work well enough even for simple pure air flow over a surface. Earth is more complex.

A new phenom as been discovered. Increased CO2 causes large-scale greening, which cools the planet. It's always something.

Good. If it's in coffers, it's sequestered, so is not as inflationary or as destructive as it would be if widely distributed. It's like it was never printed.

Too bad about the other three trillion.

False. Chaos theory really starts at looking at linear models (propogating by a matrix) where there are large eigenvalues. It's just math.

Starting in studying chaos, one looks at grass/sheep/wolves resource cycles.

Lots of transformations are noise-sensitive, but I approve of FFT techniques because the Fourier transform is a matrix with all eigenvalues being unity (in magnitude). That means it is NOT noise-sensitive.

True; in particular, it takes a few laws of thermodynamics and a bit of atmospheric composition knowledge to produce the major result, global heating. You don't have to have a weather model for any locality at all, to get that result.

False again. Chaos results are about the amplification of uncertainties in the inputs, the broadening of monitoring opportunities (networked weather stations, satellite sensing etc) is where chaotic issues are improved, not in computing.

Aha! You are trying to underpay your expert advisors? Shame on you!

Leave it to an engineer to freak out when there are only 20,000 of some high-speed PNP transistor left in the world but considers 20,000 polar bears left in the world to be "doing fine"

Is 20,000 still more than 5,000?

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Besides, polar bears are one of the few animals that will routinely stalk and kill and eat humans. They are not our friends.

Only if you go where they live.

Holy s*it Mr. Larkin even expects polar bears to say nice things about him most of the time.

Poor but typical response to being wrong.

Because I don't expect polar bears to be my friends?

20,000 is still more than 5,000. Look it up.

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thank goodness San Francisco has found the answer:

ms, which are deeply strained from the consequences of inequality. We will hire nurses, social workers and emergency responders, and expand access and treatment.?

e jet, anyone?). Local politicians don't understand finance.

is crippled in the same way. He's wrong. We don't understand every last det ail, but we do understand well enough to make useful interventions.

Sherman Act since 1890 to discourage this tendency.

sense, and more advanced courses make progressively less.

understand, and hasn't got the idea that if he worked harder on understandi ng the basics he'd be better place to understand the rest of the content.

They aren't but John Larkin doesn't know enough to realise it.

None of which violates any serious prediction, but is the kind of point mad e on the climate change denial web-sites that John Larkin relies on for his "facts"

Or some mechanism that punishes people who lie about what the computers are actually predicting.

John Christy is a climate change denialist. He's good at presenting select ed evidence that appears to mean what he wants it to mean.

1970. The computers of the period weren't up to much, and even then nobody took Erlich particuarly seriously

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It's a list put together by real climate scientists. The fact that less rea l climate scientists have screwed up in the past isn't a good reason to ima gine that more careful scientist are getting it wrong now.

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One report from 1989, which says that it would be a good idea to do somethi ng about the problem before 2000 (which it would have been) but no timescal e for the eventual disasters, plus a bunch of reports from 2019

John Larkin can't be bothered to find out what the science actually says, s o this is a trifle ironic.

Bill Sloman, Sydney

That's not how it works. Climate sims aren't nonsense, but they aren't simu lating any particular sequence of weather events - they just say that any s equence that is likely to happen will have much the same long term averages .

Nobody has ever predicted that we will all be dead in twelves years time.

On the other hand, building a bunch of real earth's and observing all of th em doesn't seem to be a practical proposition. Not liking the results isn't a good reason for rejecting the mechanism used to get them

More CO2 does encourage more plant growth, if there's enough water around t o let the plants exploit it. Higher global temperatures evaporate more wate r from the oceans - about 6% more than was evaporating a century ago. Place s where it falls as rain do see more plant growth. The rest don't, so it do esn't cool the planet enough to provide effective negative feedback. Pity a bout that.

Bill Sloman, Sydney

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Well thank goodness San Francisco has found the answer:

ystems, which are deeply strained from the consequences of inequality. We w ill hire nurses, social workers and emergency responders, and expand access and treatment.?

(free jet, anyone?). Local politicians don't understand finance.

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Of course Bitrex wasn't wrong, and John Larkin is so it is John Larkin who has produced his typical poor response to being shown up.

Bill Sloman, Sydney

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Why bother? Al Gore's film played on the plight of the polar bear, because film makers know that audiences are sentimental, and cherry picked a dire p rediction about polar bear numbers. This isn't any kind of revelation about how propaganda is constructed. John Larkin's responses are equally educati onal.

Bill Sloman, Sydney

Not all of it is noise. Summer and winter being the most obvious!

Lunar-solar cycles determine the tides and are almost entirely predictable over vast ranges of geological time. Likewise for Milankovitch cycles as the secular variations in the Earths orbital elements accumulate and interact with the climate.

Insolation at 70N is a pretty good proxy for predicting ice ages over the very long period when Siberia and Canada have been up there.

You can model some of the more predictable components very accurately. The Earth has a huge thermal inertia locked up in the oceans and ice caps which tends to prevent wild excursions in either direction.

Regards, Martin Brown

Climate change is not concerned with the obvious periodicities in the signal. It's what's left over when those periodicities are removed.

Jeroen Belleman

I believe those were forecast before supercomputers were available.

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc The best designs are necessarily accidental.

It's remarkable that individual Americans are expected to have months or years of "rainy day" savings socked away somewhere but corporations are run so close to the margins that within two weeks of the start of a crisis they come prowling around like sad flea-bitten stray cats looking for a hand-out.

I don't see this post on google group:

Not really, if it's in their bank account, it's in the money supply. If, most likely, is in their stock account, it's driving stock inflation. Wondering why the stock market is in all time high, with the economy in the toilet?

Even if they don't need it, it's good corp. policy to ask for it. Again, bailout money is driving stock market to all time hgh.

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