Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert

Am 28.02.22 um 07:12 schrieb Rick C:

With that new abundance of Stingers, there is no chance left. It was good enough for the Mujahedin, it will be enough for the Ukrainians. This was planned as a 2 day action to go to Kiew and take out the existing government. That did not happen.

Putin's Oligarch friends have lost any chance to get even richer. Have you seen the happy faces of his 'successful' generals? How he mistreated his own secret service boss live on TV? The endless rows at the money machines?

Putler will end up in an asylum where the inmates don't have control.

All he's managed to do is that Germany allotted +€ 100B for the army this year, plus > 2% Nato as expected, 500 Millions for Ukrainian WEAPONS (no, we would never export weapons to problem zones) + Stingers & bazookas from army stock, Swedes & Fins will flock to NATO, they are scared; the Fins seem to have bought F35s; even Orban and the Poles cannot get enough sanctions (they are normally at the receiving end for not complying to minimum democratic rules).

After 3 days, Europe looks completely different. The new green German government (just 100 days) was against coal, oil, gas; now they enforce inventory. North Stream II is dead; LNG terminals are built at Wilhelmshafen and elsewere.

And the other states are alike. Looks like a great success for Putin. Not. Russian GNP is like that of Italy, they take twice the # of people to do it. That's not the base for a super power. Reagan demonstrated exactly that with silly things like ICBM dense packs. Just spend the money, in 5 years they are bankrupt trying to keep up. Happened before. Oligarchs don't like that.

Gerhard

True, though if they studied their history, they'd know that it often turns out badly for them.

Sylvia.

I think that is a key point.

Economic sanctions from the West don't hit as hard and fast as bombs and tanks. But they /do/ hit, if the West keeps them up. We are already seeing big drops in the Russian stock market, devaluation of their currency, people rushing to take out their cash in fear of a banking collapse. Foreign investment is pulling out, and the Russian elite are having their foreign assets frozen. (And there are few things the Russian elite dislike more than having to live in Russia.) The Ukrainians don't have to keep the Russians out of their country - they need to kill enough Russian soldiers that Putin's controlled media can't cover it up any more.

Eventually there will come a point where the Russian people will complain too loudly, and the Russian elites will have suffered enough - Putin will be kicked out. For now, he has enough security forces in cities to intimidate, arrest and/or beat up protestors, but that will not last forever.

If Putin wants to stay in power, he needs to find an exit to all this without losing too much face - and he doesn't have long to do so.

Certainly no NATO troops will invade Russia or attack anything inside Russia's borders. And that probably extends to Belarus as well. It is very unlikely that NATO troops will be sent directly to Ukraine either. NATO is not threatening Russia with military action, and that is a line they will not cross (no matter how much Putin claims they are threatening him).

I don't know about /you/, but /I/ have certainly seen pictures and reports of effective defence. Just this morning I saw footage from Ukrainian drones, supplied by Turkey, taking out Russian convoys and anti-air batteries. Obviously the Russians have a far bigger force with a lot of equipment and training (though apparently problems with some supplies, including fuel), but the Ukrainians are holding well so far.

Large quantities of weapons are being supplied to Ukraine from Europe and other western countries. The EU is buying them fighter planes. Country after country is breaking their long-standing tradition of not supplying arms to conflict areas, and giving away military equipment.

There were parts of the east of Ukraine that were under separatist control, which is not quite the same thing as being under Russian control despite their support. The separatists want to be Ukrainian with close ties to Russia, they don't want to be Russian.

(Of course the Crimea was under Russian control.)

It's worth remembering that in all this - ordinary Russians, like ordinary people everywhere, are basically nice people. They are victims too (though obviously less so than the ordinary people of Ukraine).

I doubt if NATO would do that no matter how much Russia collapses. There might be UN-led peace-keepers, but not NATO-led forces. The difference is very significant.

So do some democratic regimes, though they like to make it very clear that they didn't actually /start/ the war in question.

Some cultures are Not Nice. Some native north american tribes engaged in constant warfare and killed strangers on sight. Some south american tribes killed them and ate them.

It's fair to say there is a bit of variation, and not all cultures hold to the same set of morals. But on the whole, most people just want to get on with their own lives and are happy to let others get on with theirs. It's leaders that start wars, not ordinary people.

In particular, you'll find that most Russians abroad - at least those that have been away from Russia long enough to be out of the main sphere of Putin's propaganda - are against the invasion.

Mutually assured destruction "worked" for 70 years, but a madman convinced that he can do whatever he wants and take whatever territory he wants by other means because his nuclear arms are a shield for him to operate with impunity under, is uncharted territory

That is to say it's purported that it was the position of Kennedy's generals during the Cuban Missile Crisis that the best resolution was an immediate invasion and occupation of Cuba, as they were convinced that the Cubans/Soviets would never actually fire their missiles in response.

Kennedy was unconvinced

I think Putin would far prefer to be thought a butcher than to not be able to declare at least some type of victory in the Ukraine. No one who matters figured he was anything but to begin with.

So if that means pounding Kyiv/Kiev to rubble just so someone can at least raise the Russian flag over it and declare "mission accomplished" for at least a lil while then that's what he do.

Yeah, maybe, but... NATO countries don't generally practice conscription, and Russia does. Russian military would be part of the peace-keeping, in any case. So, it'd be a basically a military coup internal to Russia, regardless of NATO presence.

"Age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill" - ancient Greek(?) proverb

"He knows not how to rule a kingdom, that cannot manage a province; nor can he wield a province, that cannot order a city; nor he order a city, that knows not how to regulate a village; nor he a village, that cannot guide a family, nor can that man govern well a family that knows not how to govern himself..."

Hugo Grotius

Doesn't matter. Looks like Putin has screwed himself and the Russian economy. You can't believe everything you find on the web, but there is a clear trend.

Sorry for the wrap.

EU, UK, Canada, US pledge to remove selected Russian banks from SWIFT

Biden administration expands Russia sanctions, cuts off U.S. transactions with central bank Russia?s economy in crisis as sanctions bite | Business | Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 28.02.2022

Russian soldiers 'dropping their weapons and don't want to fight' | World | News | Express.co.uk

Vladimir Putin humiliated as troops down weapons in massive collapse of Russian morale | World | News | Express.co.uk The damage is done: Russians face economic point of no return | Russia | The Guardian

Aren't the nuclear arsenals permanently on high alert? They couldn't serve their purpose otherwise.

What about eastern civilization?

What happens if Jerry gets mad

That depends on what "high alert" means (to the Russians).

E.g., in the US, the various DEFCON levels have specific meanings in terms of the resources brought to bear against the "perceived threat" as well as the level of readiness of men and material.

E.g., DEFCON 5 is the "normal" level of readiness -- no EXTRAORDINARY threat perceived.

At DEFCON 4, there is a heightened intelligence watch and enhanced security measures put into place.

At DEFCON 3, the USAF must be ready to mobilize with *15* minutes noitice.

At DEFCON 2, the armed forces must be prepared to *deploy* within 6 hours!

At DEFCON 1, you start looking for a desk to hide under...

Note that these conditions can be selectively applied to portions of the world theater. E.g., Putin is likely ("allegedly") less concerned about threats from Finland or North Korea than from NATO forces.

Each level-transition results in changes in comms traffic as well as troop/equipment changes.

[No idea if these are the current "definitions" but that's what I recall from my tour of the Cheyenne Mountain Complex ~40 years ago]

This is the first major war between civilized countries in my lifetime.

USA vs. Iraq doesn't count, the USA isn't a civilized country.

Yeah, next he'll propose using bleach to stop the Coronavirus.