It's COOL in Phoenix... 94°F, 9% humidity... last night had to eat indoors because of the chill ;-)
...Jim Thompson
-- | James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens | | Analog Innovations, Inc. | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | | | E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat | |
formatting link
| 1962 | America: Land of the Free, Because of the Brave
It's been beautiful here; clear, mild, breezey. The Blue Angels did the city on Saturday and Sunday, and it was perfect.
They did their practice passes on Friday. We went on the roof and they did several passes directly overhead, ear-splitting stuff, and we could easily read the yellow US NAVY on the undersides.
An Airbus A380 flew directly overhead on Friday, too, and it ain't "whisper quiet." Trust me on that one.
It's great here, too. I was just being my usual obnoxious self, rubbing in the benefits of low humidity ;-)
Actually the rule around here is, if you feel sweaty/clammy you'd better get inside, because you're about to heat-stroke.
When I lived out in the north desert a B1 bomber flew directly over my house in a low pass toward Scottsdale airport, for an air show. I thought we were having an earthquake ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
America: Land of the Free, Because of the Brave
You should enjoy your low humidity now, since the climatologists predict that by or before 2040 the southwest will be experiencing dramatically-worse dry weather - your water will be in short supply, your hydro power will be dramatically reduced, and all this as you are suffering severe heat waves.
What "climatologists" are those... some of Gore's boys ?:-)
Naaah! But Massachusetts will be gone ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
America: Land of the Free, Because of the Brave
Monday 10/8/07 high temperature conditions in these two cities...
NYC: The high for that day appears to me to have been 89 degrees F, probably a record. Extrapolate relative humidity for same dew point as 84 degrees F 52% R.H. (65 degrees F), and I figure 44-45% R.H. when NYC achieved 89 degrees F that day. Heat index for 89 degrees F at 45% R.H. or 65 degree F dewpoint:
Most Google hits support 93 degrees F, with a few supporting as low as
91 degrees F.
Phoenix AZ:
It appears to me that the high for that day was 96 degrees F. I allow the relative humidity to have gone down a point from 9 to 8 percent.
Best I can get from top Google hits is:
formatting link
Gets to be a bit of extrapolation combined with interpolation, but it appears to me that the ehat index at time of peak temperature was close to
89 degrees F.
Also notable: Departure from normal high temperatures for NYC and Phoenix, according to:
formatting link
Phoenix had that day's high temperature 3 degrees above normal and NYC had that day's high temperature high 21 degrees above normal.
The low temperatures for that day failed to show at weather.com, but the early morning lows for Monday 10/8/07 were shown to be 67 F for NYC and 61 degrees F for Phoenix, according to:
formatting link
I am finding for now, Phoenix to have "average low" this time of year to be 67 degrees F and average high to be 90 degrees F, so it appears to me that the average temperature for the day was close to "normal" for time of year in Phoenix (high 6 degrees above normal, low 6 degrees below normal). And that NYC was outright having a heatwave, that Philadelphia and its suburbs shared in. Drops of my sweat fell along with daily temperature records! (Philadelphia hit 89 degrees F, breaking the previous record for the date of 84 degrees F.) (Notable, Philadelphia's record for two days before, 10/6, is one of the high tough-to-break ones, 96 degrees F! That one could survive another century even if the global average temperature warms up so much as
2 degrees C within the next century! Same story for temperature averaged over the month of January in Philadelphia - 1932 has a record made to be broken later rather than sooner! Expect a few "Second Warmest Januarys Ever" in Philadelphia in the middle and late part of this century, maybe one or two in the next couple of decades, but good chance of Philadelphia not having a January warmer than that of 1932 before 2200!)
I have heard differently from older predictions of how specific regions would fare as the world warms up, which I have yet to see good region-specific different updated global-warming forecasts for since.
It continues to appear to me that Phoenix will warm up less than most other spots in the Northern Hemisphere will, especially in terms of high temperature. Low temperature is expected to increase, but it will be easy to blame at least a good part of that on increase of "urban heat island" effect. As I heard, humidity and rainfall are expected to increase. (Though I expect that at least a fair amount of the time the uptick in relative humidity will be one or two percentage points - such as from 12 to 13 or 14 percent or the like).
See if Phoenix in the 2010's or 2020's shows a trend of an uptick in low temperatures, winter temperatures, rainfall, thunderstorm activity, aannual average dewpoint, a slight increase in average relative humidity, but by 2030 has only gotten 1 degree F past the alltime record high of 122 degrees F set in 1990.
And see what Prudhoe Bay, Alaska or Iqaluit (formerly Forbisher Bay), northern Canada does in that time frame - probably warm up a lot more than Phoenix will!
Naaah, the eastern foothills of the Appalachians go as far east as western/NW suburbs of Boston! High ground gets close to US Route 1 everywhere in Eastern USA north of Georgia or so! An eastern branch of ouright mountains of the Appalachians goes through western Massechussets!
Even if Greenland's icecap melts, I expect a goodly portion of Boston to be above sea level. New Orleans and Key West and a lot of barrier island towns and cities, on the other hand if global warming manages to melt Greenland's icecap...
Decrease in wild temperature swings - the Arctic is expected to warm up more than the tropics, and so far has actually done so
Decrease in snowfall in some areas - though it appears to me that local average winter temperatures in Philadelphia and NYC need to warm up another 2-3 or so degrees F, 3-5 degrees F for Boston, in order for most of the bad snowstorms to be thawed into rainstorms. (I seem to think requiring another .4-.5 degree C of global warming, maybe achieved around
2025-2030, Boston could easily need to wait until about 2040 before getting much relief from snowstorms).
Philadelphia had a record snowstorm and winter snowfall in 1995-1996, NYC had a record snowstorm only a couple years ago, and Boston 2-3 years ago had both a record snowstorm (broke previous record set in 1978) and a record snowy winter (broke previous record set in 1993-1994).
Sure-- the opening of Northwest Passage as the Arctic ice pack shrinks will allow trade to move through Canada's northern territorial waters between the Atlantic and Pacific. It will also require new ships to be built so the Canadian military can patrol the passage, so more business for them.
I've lived here for 45 years. If anything the temperatures seem to be dropping slightly.(*) The _problem_ is that the "official" temperature is at the airport, one of the largest airports in the US, and a HUGE expanse of concrete.
Cosmetologists and astrologists could do a better predictive job than our so-called weather experts :-)
Maybe at the airport. I remember 124°F in downtown Scottsdale in June of 1962.
(*) I watch my kWh consumption carefully, mostly to spot equipment failures before it costs me ;-)
If I deduct kWh consumption of new additions to my load, such as a waterfall pump, a heat-pump on my spa, and a chiller on my salt-water aquarium, the average consumption has dropped during the summer.
It has also dropped during the winter, so our temperature seems headed toward more uniform winter and summer.
Works for me.
As for Boston, the Appalachians, etc... isn't most of downtown Boston (and Back Bay) right at sea level ?:-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
America: Land of the Free, Because of the Brave
All the weather prediction computers in the world can't tell me what the weather in my city will be like tomorrow. Why should they be any better at predicting regional climates 50 years from now?
If they can't model weather, how can they pretend to model climate? As time passes, the nonlinearities just get bigger.
I was not guilty of misspelling nor misattribution ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
America: Land of the Free, Because of the Brave
ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here.
All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.