Florida voting stats on election day

I wouldn't be born for another ten years when Chappaquiddick happened and I'm not young anymore. the Ted Kennedy jokes which are still remarkably common around here, but are mostly lost on anyone under 60.

Anyway John Larkin seems to be roleplaying a social justice warrior and you seem to be reciting communist talking-points so I GOTTA GO

you have not commented on the meat of the post which is about whether trump might be winning Florida (as we speak)

A full 30% of ethnic minority voters are afraid of being arrested at the poll for an outstanding arrest warrant. Looks like you missed that one.

On Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 11:32:38 AM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com w rote:

that have been cast in the election.

voting.

unted.

es.

and party affiliation.

r advantage going to the republicans. At about 11am the democrat advantage of 115,000 votes has been erased and the republicans are ahead by 55,000 vo tes. If these rates hold up over the rest of the day, the republicans will have cast more than 300,000 more votes than the democrats.

that those who declare as independent will split 50/50.

2020, but in 2016 the republicans gained and overcame the dems but by a pr etty narrow margin

eater percentage than in 2016.

That will probably mean Georgia and North Carolina go for Trump too.

Next on the watch list is Pennsylvania. At least two other swing states do as they do, probably because of demographic similarities of the voters.

Early number are about useless in this election, the only thing that's fun to speculate about is at what point today Trump will declare himself the winner. I've got money on 9:30 pm EST.

When you've been retired 25 years and bedtime is 6 pm you gotta get there early.

On Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 1:23:03 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wr ote:

votes that have been cast in the election.

early voting.

not counted.

nd votes.

s cast and party affiliation.

te/hour advantage going to the republicans. At about 11am the democrat adv antage of 115,000 votes has been erased and the republicans are ahead by 55 ,000 votes. If these rates hold up over the rest of the day, the republica ns will have cast more than 300,000 more votes than the democrats.

ssumes that those who declare as independent will split 50/50.

cal to 2020, but in 2016 the republicans gained and overcame the dems but b y a pretty narrow margin

h a greater percentage than in 2016.

otes that have been cast in the election.

arly voting.

t counted.

Not likely to hear from those who do die. I do recall a 20 something who c aught the virus at a Corona party. He is reported to have told a nurse he didn't believe the virus was real and he made a mistake. He died shortly a fter.

The difference seems to be in how people are affected by this story. Some consider it a cautionary tale. Other laugh and think it won't happen to th em. They are probably right. The disease has not even killed 0.1% of the total US population. Those are good odds. Some of us like to improve the odds a bit more. I don't like playing Russian roulette no matter how many chambers the gun has.

--

  Rick C. 

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Blocher posted a link to a survey. The fear correlation is shockingly strong, even to me.

People with outstanding warrents should be arrested. They should be in prison, where they can't vote.

I'm not afraid of being arrested for an outstanding warrant. Are you?

The topic should be voting in Pennsylvania. That's the state that will decide the election. Even if Trump wins Florida he has to win many other states to go with it that he has been behind in the polls for some time by a much larger margin.

--

  Rick C. 

  + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

PA is too boogered up. A better indicator is going to be NC,margin in OH, WI and MI also margin in AZ. (also FL which has some data you can actually get your arms around before the polls close)

comparing these states that are reasonably controlled will tell the story.

To win, Trump has to carry ALL the states he is ahead in, all of the ?tossup states? (IA OH MC GA FL) and 21 electoral votes in states that are currently ?lean Biden? (PA NC GA FL AZ).

MI, rather

Biden winning Florida would almost surely mean immediate game-over for Trump. I've never thought it was that kind of election, so a lead there atm for Trump is not big surprise.

This is my guess:

On Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 2:43:04 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wr ote:

he votes that have been cast in the election.

on early voting.

e not counted.

sand votes.

tes cast and party affiliation.

vote/hour advantage going to the republicans. At about 11am the democrat a dvantage of 115,000 votes has been erased and the republicans are ahead by

55,000 votes. If these rates hold up over the rest of the day, the republi cans will have cast more than 300,000 more votes than the democrats.

assumes that those who declare as independent will split 50/50.

tical to 2020, but in 2016 the republicans gained and overcame the dems but by a pretty narrow margin

ith a greater percentage than in 2016.