whit3rd wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:
Funny then, that the euro and US simulations for path were way off each other. I immediately wanted to know what variables get introduced by some dope with buttons and dials in front og him and how much is really supercomputer fractal vortice predictive KNOWLEDGE, which we have a LOT of.
Looked to me like it might pull up at the shore of Fl and just sit there not moving inland or up the coast much and peter out as it then slowly does start walking up the coast.
The original US sim had it walking straight across the state.
Haha! I never figured you for one of these "country or fight!" type of individuals. :-D
Forgive me if this has been asked before, but do you not have a storm cellar? If you haven't, could you not get one built for you? Surely that's the preferable choice against driving hundreds of miles inland every time this happens?
Anyway, radio news says it's nasty, so stay safe and come back in one piece.
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Funny I don't remember you ever mentioning you having such a child prodigy before, John. Unlike dearly-departed Jim, who practically force- fed us at every opportunity how great his offspring were (God bless him).
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I grew up listening to Bluegrass, Country and Southern Gospel music. Rock always gave me migraines.
Te only places that can have a basement in this part of Florida are on hills. Real, or man made. I saw one home being built tt was multiple story, but they brought in a lot of trucks to slope the ground up to the second floor, just to have a basement.
She has elected to be a public figure, so I guess it's OK to mention her. She is now making a presentation on family genetics in Amsterdam, and for some reason using (with my permission) my high-school yearbook picture to demonstrate how one can, just by spitting in a tube, locate relatives.
She has stories. Like telling people "Ummm, he wasn't your father..."
She traveled a lot by motorcycle (she is also a certified BMW motorcycle mechanic) through the sw USA and northern Mexico, discovering new "species" of native bees. I don't think they would be species by the classic definition.
People in the alarmism industry need stuff to work with. Cat5 hurricanes, starving frogs, forest fires, new species discovered just as they are going extinct, beaches eroding, record temps (measured off airport runways), beach houses getting wet, bits of plastic, better instrumentation to tease out extremes, and of course bigger and better computers.
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John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk
jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com
ath of coastline from north Florida all the way to North Carolina. The coas tal wetlands there are really low elevation and serve as habitat for millio ns of birds and other wildlife, with more than a few species already critic ally endangered. So it's looking like it will be another environmental disa ster.
warming that we've already puts 6% more water vapour into the atmosphere ab ove the oceans, which is the energy store that drives hurricanes and other extreme weather.
warmer than 26C down to depth of about 50 metres, global warming opens out the area that can spawn them.
translate into more intense hurricanes rather than more frequent hurricane s, which is going to make the consequences more severe than they have been for the past few thousand years.
hich isn't a particularly reliable source, even if it offers enough flatter y to it's readers to keep John Larkin happy.
Right, and all that water vapor makes the storm double damaging because of of it. Supposedly when the vapor precipitates out of the circulation, the r otation is damped due to some kind of conservation of momentum, which in pr actical terms means the storm tends linger over the area much longer. This is how they ended with 50 inches rainfall in Houston. The flooding was horr endous. You have double trouble when the storm is on the coastline because newly dried air re-charges with vapor as it passes over water, ready for a new round of precipitation when it passes back over the land. The storm act s like a pump. Then the flooding is much more than a rainfall statistic. Th ese areas with older infrastructure, as in the southeast, have many primiti ve coal ash retention ponds. Many of these are unlined, open, and contain f orty years of coal ash retention, meaning they're quite massive. For some r eason a lot of them are adjacent to rivers. It's really bad news for everyt hing when these things overflow into the surrounding environment, and even worse if they rupture and dump their total contents. The ash kills everythi ng, maybe not immediately, but eventually, and it can't be cleaned up. Coal ash isn't the only type of hazardous retention pond operation going, but i t's certainly the largest.
Its much more complicated than that, at least in the case of the European m odel which solves the entire world. Supposedly they stream the data from ov er 4,000 sensors into the sim in real time. As massive as their computation al capabilities are, they only manage one finished forecast per 12 hours. A ll the other sims, which are not quite useless, cut corners in the interest of throughput, and aren't worth looking at until 24 hours out.
The classical definition never made much sense to begin with as there are edge cases (horses and donkeys don't produce universally infertile offspring, even) and the more time went on the more edge cases that were found.
Classifying things into species was always to assist the practical process of doing science as far as I know, though, it was never about maintaining God's proper ordering on Earth for the benefit of the religious or the eugenically-oriented (or both in the case of the american right.)
It's a lot easier to say what something isn't than what something "is."
Well, for those who are studying Marxist dogma, Bill's the very chap! There's nothing about Marx's clapped out, discredited theories he doesn't know. It's only everything else he stinks at.
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I once knew someone who could do that just by looking at their faces.
Oh boy. Awkward!!
She sounds like a honey. Such a shame there aren't more like that around nowadays or I wouldn't be the embittered, despondent, ageing bachelor you see before you now. :-D
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Many of the flooded houses in Houston were built in what was a reservoir.
New Orleans is mostly below sea level. A hundred years of building levees and pumping out groundwater and building ranch-style houses has side effects. Hurricanes have been around forever.
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John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk
jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Thanks, John. Nice to know there's hope for me yet! :-D
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swath of coastline from north Florida all the way to North Carolina. The c oastal wetlands there are really low elevation and serve as habitat for mil lions of birds and other wildlife, with more than a few species already cri tically endangered. So it's looking like it will be another environmental d isaster.
al warming that we've already puts 6% more water vapour into the atmosphere above the oceans, which is the energy store that drives hurricanes and oth er extreme weather.
is warmer than 26C down to depth of about 50 metres, global warming opens out the area that can spawn them.
to translate into more intense hurricanes rather than more frequent hurric anes, which is going to make the consequences more severe than they have be en for the past few thousand years.
, which isn't a particularly reliable source, even if it offers enough flat tery to it's readers to keep John Larkin happy.
of of it. Supposedly when the vapor precipitates out of the circulation, th e rotation is damped due to some kind of conservation of momentum, which in practical terms means the storm tends linger over the area much longer. Th is is how they ended with 50 inches rainfall in Houston. The flooding was h orrendous.
The area was originally some kind of drainage basin for positively huge wat ershed. Not good for building residential, but excellent for construction o f a shipping port, which was its original purpose, it was totally industria l. Not exactly sure of the time frame, but the booming expansion of the cit y infrastructure and the population boom was relatively recent, like past 4
0 years or something. They did have a system of buffer retention reservoirs , to hold excess water in the event of storms or floods, and buy time for n atural drainage to remove the water and prevent flooding. But the system wa s corrupted by the greed of the real estate developers with lots of housing constructed in high risk areas and fudged estimates of their flood abateme nt efficacy. End result was of course gazillions of bucks of damage and loo king for a federal taxpayer bailout to fix it.
Right, NOLA is pretty safe if the dykes are properly maintained. They'll pr obably need to be enlarged to account for sea level rise eventually.
Excuse me, we now realize that a cat 4 or 5 storm has hit, only because we have better monitoring? The lower-frequency of recorded storms in the past is because they didn't notice the 140mph winds?
ne frequency is primarily due to improved monitoring."
the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic since the la te-1980s."
hat anthropogenic global warming has been accelerating over the past fort y years.
ove the normal interglacial average temperature - comparable with the sta tistical noise on the signal from the El Nino/La Nina alternation and the slower atlantic Multidecadal oscillation. Since then we've had another h alf degree of anthropogenic global warming.
orm-records/
going on now.
Bill, did you even READ the article?
------------(quote)------------- We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is
not significantly distinguishable from zero (Figure 2). Thus the historical tropical storm count record does not provide compelling evidence for a greenhouse warming induced long-term increase. ... If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of
hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era (Figure 4, black curve, from CCSP 3.3 (2008)). This is without any adjustment for ?missing hurricanes?.
-----------(end quote)------------------
In other words sufficient historical data shows that the conditions haven't changed enough in the long term. If you shrink the results to a few decades or back to say the 1950s then sure, you get an apparent increase, but if you go back to the 1800s then that difference disappears .
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