Waiting, once again.

This hurricane did have a change in forecast that's bigger and that happened very quickly, with it now going up the coast instead of inland over FL. But the forecast still gave people ample time to prepare, which is the most important thing.

Reply to
Whoey Louie
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Of course it's different. It was even more different before the native Americans moved in. The ice ages were yet more different.

The Garden of Eden was a long time ago.

We don't have alleys here.

--
John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk 

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com 
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Reply to
John Larkin

The path of a hurricane depends on ocean surface temperatures and salinity; back in 1900, the Galveston storm was known in advance, and preparations made for it to land... in New Jersey. Texas was surprised, though.

We actually CAN monitor ocean surface broadly nowadays, and path predictions are quite good. Predictions are always simulations, so simulations too are quite good nowadays. Bet you a dollar the path of Dorian won't hit Galveston!

Reply to
whit3rd

Drive it to the airport, rent a car with the damage waiver, drive home. ;)

My elder daughter's car was parked at La Guardia airport when Hurricane Sandy hit...it was flooded with sea water up to the windows...fortunately it was new and she had replacement-value insurance...the dealer gave her a quantity discount for buying two cars in two months...so she wound up several hundred dollars ahead. :)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Reply to
Phil Hobbs

to shelter in place.

g mess.

h of coastline from north Florida all the way to North Carolina. The coasta l wetlands there are really low elevation and serve as habitat for millions of birds and other wildlife, with more than a few species already critical ly endangered. So it's looking like it will be another environmental disast er.

John Larkin hasn't got the message that the one degree Celcius of global wa rming that we've already puts 6% more water vapour into the atmosphere abov e the oceans, which is the energy store that drives hurricanes and other ex treme weather.

That's not been true for the past few thousand years.

Since hurricanes depend on the existence of a large area of ocean that is w armer than 26C down to depth of about 50 metres, global warming opens out t he area that can spawn them.

The modelling that has been done suggests that the extra area is going to t ranslate into more intense hurricanes rather than more frequent hurricanes, which is going to make the consequences more severe than they have been fo r the past few thousand years.

John Larkin gets his information from Anthony Watts' denialist website, whi ch isn't a particularly reliable source, even if it offers enough flattery to it's readers to keep John Larkin happy.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

Another bit of Anthony Watts' denialist message. The anthropogenic global warming we've already had is delivering extra energy to the hurricane forming mechanism, and hurricanes really are getting more intense.

Very intense hurricanes are still rare, but not as rare as they used to be.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

frequency is primarily due to improved monitoring."

And you missed this part "There has been a very pronounced increase in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic since the late-198

0s."

Gabriel A. Vecchi and Thomas R. Knutson seem to have missed the point that anthropogenic global warming has been accelerating over the past forty year s.

By 1980 had been about half a degree of anthropogenic global warming above the normal interglacial average temperature - comparable with the statistic al noise on the signal from the El Nino/La Nina alternation and the slower atlantic Multidecadal oscillation. Since then we've had another half degree of anthropogenic global warming.

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records/

Being obsessed with historical records can blind you to what's actually goi ng on now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

are to shelter in place.

ming mess.

ll

in

wath of coastline from north Florida all the way to North Carolina. The coa stal wetlands there are really low elevation and serve as habitat for milli ons of birds and other wildlife, with more than a few species already criti cally endangered. So it's looking like it will be another environmental dis aster.

America of today and the vast wilderness that existed 1000 years ago?

The people who think that there was a Garden of Eden presumably also think that Bishop Ussher's chronology tells them when it was.

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" Ussher deduced that the first day of creation fell upon, October 23, 4004 BC, in the proleptic Julian calendar, near the autumnal equinox."

The native American had moved into north America rather earlier than that. There's strong evidence that they've been there since the end of the last i ce age. There are suggestions that there was an earlier migration, but that population - if it existed - got swamped by the people who moved in at the end of the last ice age.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

One problem is that there is no longer a firm definition of "species." Nowadays, one batch of squirrels with a stripe on their tails is declared to be a new species. There are many more species than there were by the classic definition.

(Except humans of course. We can't have species.)

--
John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk 

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Reply to
John Larkin

Neighbors and friends might be pretty busy sorting out their own evacuation problems and trying to save what they can of their own gear.

I've noticed after being a native-born American and living in America for the better part of 40 years Americans tend to be fairly protective and possessive about their gear, automobiles particularly. I think most Americans would find a way to save all their vehicles if it were really so simple to move everything out of the area effectively, even with some warning.

Nah there are surely plenty of stupid or ignorant or arrogant or all three people out there who ignore signs, ignore warnings, ignore advice, and just do generally dumb things, either occasionally as most everyone does from time to time, or as a habitual lifestyle choice of living on ego and feelings of invulnerability.

Fast moving water is deceptive; people maybe got consumer 4x4 SUV or truck (that was sold to them on the notions of "ruggedness" and that it is somehow designed for situations like that) it's like 14" of water? Pfft I'll just power through all that - 14" of fast-running water is tremendously powerful it'll shove that SUV off its footing and downstream quickly, not a problem at all.

It's the kind of power that modern suburban 1st world humans who tend to spend very little of their lives in situations where nature crashes right into their neighborhood understandably, perhaps don't have a good intuitive grasp of.

Reply to
bitrex

There never was...

"a group of living organisms consisting of similar individuals capable of exchanging genes or interbreeding." The word "similar" has always been open to wide subjective interpretation and what species some current or historical organism is or isn't was the kind of things biologists and anthropologists might try to have a pistol duel about in the 1800s

You sound disappointed. What scientific purpose would classifying modern humans into different species serve? That is the purpose of classification schemes it isn't to make non-biologists or non-anthropologists happy.

Reply to
bitrex

That is to say they classify so they have a common baseline terminology so in scientific literature and correspondence there's less ambiguity about what's being talked about; not even every biologist knows what a Euphorbia antiquorum vs.Euphorbia milii is off the top of their head but if they don't they can go look it up in a book or online.

Every modern human knows what a "modern human" is.

Reply to
bitrex

to shelter in place.

g mess.

h of coastline from north Florida all the way to North Carolina. The coasta l wetlands there are really low elevation and serve as habitat for millions of birds and other wildlife, with more than a few species already critical ly endangered. So it's looking like it will be another environmental disast er.

It's firm enough, but more complicated than it used to be.

As an undergraduate I got taught about "ring species" where a bunch of subs pecies were spread around a geological feature. Each sub-species could inte rbreed with the next, but by the time you got all the way around the featur e the adjacent subspecies were different enough that they didn't interbreed .

Essentially a species is a group which doesn't interbreed with adjacent sim ilar species - you need reproductive isolation to get distinct species, and you can't be too prescriptive about how it happens.

Only if they don't interbreed with similar species.

Cite?

We don't, now. Neanderthals, Denisovians and the like might have qualified when they were around. There clearly was some interbreeding, but not all th at much, and we don't seem to be able to work out enough about the interact ions to make a defensible judgement.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

From 10th grade biology, the classical definition is that a male and female are of the same species if they can have fertile offspring. So dogs and wolves are the same species, but horses and donkeys aren't.

Dunno about lions and tabbys. ;)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

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Dr Philip C D Hobbs 
Principal Consultant 
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Reply to
Phil Hobbs

That's a coincidence. I was about to say exactly the same make and model, having wandered around a massive car museum recently. They had an electric blue '63 Catalina in there which had been stretched (like it wasn't long enough before!) by some very well-respected auto body modifier company in the US whose name I can't recall off hand but they'd added their little decal to the trunk for promotional reasons, presumably. It was one of the half dozen or so outrageously large cars there deemed worthy of taking a snap of. Remember this is Yurp and we don't see such gloriously anachronistic monstrosities very often!

Sorry to hear about you having to survive another storm. :(

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Reply to
Cursitor Doom

Pontiac was advertised as 'Wide Track' because they were big. The trunk w as so large that I could lay down in it without my head or feet touching ei ther side. It was a family car. Mine was a metallic blue with a white conve rtible top. It was built like a tank. I was hit one day by a large Rainbow Beard delivery truck. It knocked me one and a half lanes sideways into the curb, and didn't even scratch the paint. I had just had it painted one week before that. It only had an AM radio, so I mounted an FM tuner inside the glove compartment, and used the radio as an amplifier.. It confused the cra p out of my neighbor. He was one of those who would change the radio to a c rappy rock station without asking, then turn it all the way up. He freaked when the tuner didn't work, and it would only play Country Music. He was ra nting, "There's something wrong with the radio!!!"

It's part of life.

Reply to
Michael Terrell

Michael Terrell wrote in news:6e60b79b- snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

Did you hurry out to get a right earring just after or did you already have one?

Reply to
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno

Like I said, there are plenty of people who are stupid. It's been all over the news, time and time again, cases of people trying to drive through water and either getting stuck or swept away. They've been told not to do it. And 'fast moving water"? You'd have to be a real moron to try to drive through that, unless the alternative was far worse, but that never seems to be the case and people do it.

Like I said, they are stupid.

Reply to
Whoey Louie

e:

e frequency is primarily due to improved monitoring."

e number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic since the late-1

980s."

t anthropogenic global warming has been accelerating over the past forty ye ars.

e the normal interglacial average temperature - comparable with the statist ical noise on the signal from the El Nino/La Nina alternation and the slowe r atlantic Multidecadal oscillation. Since then we've had another half degr ee of anthropogenic global warming.

m-records/

oing on now.

Yes, screw the historical records, let's just make it up as we go.

ROFL

Reply to
Whoey Louie

That's was essentially my point too. The forecasts get adjusted, but a very high percentage of the time, from about 3 days out, they are pretty close. And there is plenty of time for people to take steps to avoid loss of life and some property. Dorian's shift in forecast was one of the biggest I've seen, but even that was 3 days before landfall in the US. We got lucky this time, at least as it appears right now.

Reply to
Whoey Louie

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