Tesla Turning the Corner

Heh wonder if any "I'mma short!" posters here managed to get their positions in prior to the earnings report. Whoops!

The city I work in has a network of golf cart paths. People use them to get around town and there are cart spaces in the parking lots around town. No charging stations, though. The only place they aren't allowed is on state roads. Even high school kids drive them to school (driving age is 14). They work out pretty well for a small city but I'm not sure I'd even own one if I lived in the city. They aren't cheap.

I suppose you think electric motors are lighter than water. You probably do, in fact. Idiot!

A net quarterly loss of $717.5 million is "earnings", so the stock went up!

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com 
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Scooters and skateboards don't have to float.

"Bird" does sound like an interesting model for inner cities. I understand they're quite popular around campus, here. Of course governments will try to tax them out of business.

Who cares? Efficiency has nothing to do with play.

Why do people insist on trying to fix what isn't broken?

The omelette store has been breaking eggs for a while now, but the customers in the dining room have started to see a few come out of the kitchen and the sunk cost mentality has been kicked back into gear

I can't be arsed to follow the saga/thread in detail.

Does this mean there's a loss on each sale but Tesla is making up for it in the volume they're selling?

When I watched HP shares obsessively, there was always a negative correlation between the results and share price. I took that as an example of the old aphorism "buy on rumours and sell on news".

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No, they are making it up with credits and markups.

1. They increased credits (probably from suppliers) for 300M.
2. They increased markups by 30,000. A 35,000 Model 3 selling for 65,000.

It remains to be seen how long they can maintain this.

700M loss is real. Cash accounting is creative. They don't need any new c ash infusion, except from China. I guess China doesn't count.

You don't need to be wealthy to raft or camp or hike in the hills. The things that I like here are mostly cheap or free.

But they are known for lots of redundancy. Like, two or three engines pulling a train.

--

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics

I don't think that's really for reliability-redundancy that's cuz a fully loaded 150 hopper coal train weighs just that much. A single engine has the power to roll that over level ground but hit a 1.5% grade and you'll be headed backwards. Cajon Pass tops out at 3% maybe 3.5% in some places.

I'm sure there are some YT videos where you can watch four or six modern diesels lashed together screaming bloody murder in unison lugging a fully loaded train over that

I can't imagine they'd routinely run extra engines for mechanical redundancy that weren't required to pull the weight, those things are expensive they need them to work like gubmint mules all the time to earn their keep. It's also more chances for something non-power train related to go wrong that you can't compensate for by shutting the engine down e.g. busted truck overheating or a wheel completely de-railing.

arnings for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars. Ho wever, now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, they wi ll be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 producti on. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter and for future quarters.

time to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see someth ing around $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump like tha t the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in every thing important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit pricey. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high still compared to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the current los ses.

many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will continue t o ship in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced late i n 2019 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 2020.

e of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wide fas t charging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. Once I found they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized the Teslas were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk about fast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when they will be.

Yes, because many people, unlike you, don't have an emotional bias against a successful entrepreneur like Musk. I'm not sure how much of the bump is because the quarter showed Tesla performing according to expectations (unli ke the last two quarters where the Model 3 was under-produced) and how much was from Musk appearing repentant. His "bad boy" behavior had knocked the stock down for a while it seems.

The issues going forward are two, profit and cash. Musk has stated repeate dly that they will be profitable in Q3 and going forward but also that no f urther capital is needed to continue operations according to their plan. T hey are planning to build a giga-factory in China next funded with loans fr om Chinese banks.

We'll see how that goes. If they are indeed profitable, even if only sligh tly, that should make it easier to get loans.

Rick C.

Lol! As if there are NO disadvantages to existing products so they can't be improved. Oil and water don't mix. Any time a power boat is in the water it is leaving pollution behind, sometimes visibly.

Why do you think power boats can't be improved?

Rick C.

Permit me to rephrase your question. Can the California part of the electric grid handle the load if EVERYONE switched from gasoline burning cars to all electric. Let's do the math, using some rather overly simplistic over simplifications:

California uses 15.1 billion gallons of gasoline per year (2015): This does NOT include diesel and CNG, which are mostly used by trucks and construction equipment.

The MPG-e conversion from gallons of gasoline to electric is: 1 MPG-e = 1 mile / gallon(electric) = 1 mile / 33.70 kW-hrs

Therefore, if all the gasoline burners switched to electric power, the cars would use: 3.70 * 15.1 billion = 510 * 10^9 kW-hrs = 510 million Gigawatt-hrs in one year.

CAISO represents a big part of the California electric grid. Currently, it's capacity is 51.4 Gigawatts. It can only do that as along as alternative energy supplies are online producing an estimated daily annual average of 4 Gigawatts, an imports of about 7 Gigawatts average, both over a 24 hr period: I'm not sure what capacity is available if all the generation capacity is simultaneously turned on, but my guess(tm) is somewhere around 80 Gigawatts. Over a 24hr period, that will be less because solar will be offline and imported energy might become too expensive. I'll guess(tm) about: 65 Gigawatts for 365 days = 23,700 Gigawatt-hrs in one year.

However, not all electric production will be available for EV charging. My guess(tm) is that California uses an estimated average of about 33 Gigawatts every day or: 33 Gigawatts for 365 days = 12,000 Gigawatt-hrs in one year. Assuming that doesn't change, that leaves: 23,700 - 12,000 = 11,700 Gigawatt-hrs per year available for EV charging.

However, based on replacing 15.1 billion gallons of gasoline per year with EV, the capacity is severely lacking by factor of: 510,000,000 / 11,700 = 44,000 So, to make the governors plan to have everyone buy an EV instead of a gasoline burner would require that the electrical generation capacity for California be increased by 44,000 times.

Note: My track record of math errors is rather bad. Please check my arithmetic, estimates, and assumptions before accepting my conclusions.

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Jeff Liebermann     jeffl@cruzio.com 
150 Felker St #D    http://www.LearnByDestroying.com 
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last time I tried doing the math I came to roughly double the current amount of electricity to replace all gasoline in the US

On Friday, August 3, 2018 at 9:32:57 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen w rote:

rs

Here is the math...

143 billion gal (10^9) of gasoline was used in 2017 for ground transportati on in the US. Not all of that is for cars which could be powered by electr icity. But I'll use that number. Using 26.4 mpg (2008 average) that is 3, 775.2 billion miles (10^9).

=firefox-b-1-ab

Electric usage in the US in 2016 was 4,137.1 terawatt-hours (10^12). Using 0.33 kWHr/mi that would be 12,411.3 trillion miles (10^12). Seems to be a rather large discrepancy... about a factor of 3300 times more electricity than gasoline.

If all the ground gasoline were replaced with electric, it would use about

1,258.4 billion kWh or 0.03% of the currently generated electricity. This is a very useful statistic to know when people start talking about overload ing the electric grid.

Please check my math.

Rick C.

I don't know if you made a math error, but you made a reading error of the original page where you got the figure for kWh to miles. You were off by 100. 33 kWh is about 100 miles in most electric cars, not 1 mile.

The rest of your post includes a lot of "guessing". Not sure what to make of that.

Rick C.

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tion in the US. Not all of that is for cars which could be powered by elec tricity. But I'll use that number. Using 26.4 mpg (2008 average) that is

3,775.2 billion miles (10^9).

t=firefox-b-1-ab

ng 0.33 kWHr/mi that would be 12,411.3 trillion miles (10^12). Seems to be a rather large discrepancy... about a factor of 3300 times more electrici ty than gasoline.

t 1,258.4 billion kWh or 0.03% of the currently generated electricity. Thi s is a very useful statistic to know when people start talking about overlo ading the electric grid.

US used 140.43 billion gallons of gasoline in 2015, at ~33kWh/gallon GGE* that is 4.62 trillion kWh, total electricity production in the US in

2015 was ~4 trillion kWh

*