Tesla will have an earnings report on Aug 1. Consensus estimates of earnin gs for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars. However , now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, they will be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 production. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter and for f uture quarters.
If you are thinking of making a quick buck in the market, this is the time to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see something a round $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump like that the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in every thin g important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit pricey. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high still compa red to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the current losses.
I'm wondering just how much profit they can make on their cars and how many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will continue to shi p in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced late in 201
9 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 2020.
People talk about the "competition", but the Teslas have one thing none of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wide fast cha rging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. Once I fo und they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized the Tesla s were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk about fast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when they will be.
the charging network isn't that much to write home about...yet. There are a number of superchargers in most major cities, Boston has one station with eight bays, for the entire metro area. There are quite a few more generic DC fast chargers for Bolt etc. than there are Tesla-specific chargers here by a long shot.
I bet they've pre-sold a lot of 3's here so sounds like things are gonna get a bit busier around there soon. Instead of buying Tesla stock perhaps I should open a hot dog stand/food truck. Probably gonna be some wait time
I think fast charging stations will be a nice perk but for 3 owners you'll have to pay to use them, it will likely cost more than charging at home.
You still stuck in the "gas station" mentality. People don't wanna go to gas stations, or charge stations that are like gas stations. People buying these cars want to get away from all that. The thing that really excites many of the people I talk with on the street who ask about my car is "You mean I can charge it at home and don't have to go to the gas station?!"
In urban areas gas stations are a pain, overcrowded with rude people at rush hour when everybody wants to get gas, an annoying time-sink. People don't wanna pay Tesla a fee for a "gas station-like" experience either if they don't have to they'd much prefer to charge at home, you save money that way. The target market for lower-priced EVs is people who wanna save money on fuel.
rnings for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars. How ever, now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, they wil l be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 productio n. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter and f or future quarters.
ime to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see somethi ng around $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump like that the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in every thing important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit pricey. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high still c ompared to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the current loss es.
many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will continue to ship in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced late in 2019 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 2020.
of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wide fast charging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. Once I found they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized the T eslas were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk about f ast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when they w ill be.
The chargers aren't so much for local driving as for longer trips. We are used to filling our tanks with gas. It's a bother, but we do it because we have to. The Tesla fills it's tank at home, overnight when we are all doi ng other things and electricity is cheap. :)
But when you want to take an electric car on a trip, you'd better have your charging lined up just like driving in west Texas. With the Tesla it's al l programmed into the car! GPS with knowledge of both the Superchargers an d the other charging networks is on your dashboard. The Chevy Bolt require s you to bring your own GPS and database. :(
Maybe some of the other players to be will do a better job, but GM is about to fall on its sword. Tesla's production is limited by how big the buildi ng is, so they extended that with a huge tent! GM's production is limited by how many people want to buy.
I know a couple young families around here with Bolts they're mostly in service as grocery-getters/soccer shuttles and probably don't go much more than 50 miles from home 95% of the time.
If you suggested driving the Bolt to NYC or Philly they'd look at you like you were kinda off and probably say something like "Ummm, that's what aircraft were invented for?" People gotta work on Monday morning man! Ain't nobody got time for these 400 mile jaunts we working 55 hours a week.
Grocery getter/soccer shuttle isn't a glamorous market but it's a market. The Bolt will sell because it's an EV the wife will let you buy. She's gonna take one look at that Ferrari-red Model 3 and be like "You're buying a spoooorts carrr????"
earnings for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars. H owever, now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, they w ill be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 product ion. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter and for future quarters.
time to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see somet hing around $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump like th at the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in ever y thing important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit pricey. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high still compared to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the current lo sses.
w many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will continue to ship in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced late in 2019 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 2020.
ne of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wide fa st charging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. Onc e I found they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized the Teslas were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk about fast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when they will be.
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are used to filling our tanks with gas. It's a bother, but we do it becaus e we have to. The Tesla fills it's tank at home, overnight when we are all doing other things and electricity is cheap. :)
your charging lined up just like driving in west Texas. With the Tesla it' s all programmed into the car! GPS with knowledge of both the Supercharger s and the other charging networks is on your dashboard. The Chevy Bolt req uires you to bring your own GPS and database. :(
bout to fall on its sword. Tesla's production is limited by how big the bu ilding is, so they extended that with a huge tent! GM's production is limi ted by how many people want to buy.
You say the Bolt will sell... but when? From what I've seen they haven't r amped up sales much over the last YEAR! Is GM having production problems a s well?
We both know that the 5% when you want to drive the car someplace outside o f town you need to know if there are variations in your plan the car won't leave you stranded or make you wait for hours while it charges.
Like I said, the other car makers will probably do a better job than GM, bu t they too will be handicapped by the lack of a coast to coast fast chargin g network for when you take your car on trips.
It's the fifth highest seller after the 3, S, X, and Prius Prime, twice as many sold this year so far as the Ford Fusion Energi and a thousand more than the Honda Clarity. Like, what more do you want? They don't have ~200k pre-orders to fulfill who've been waiting years they're just selling them off the lot to people who walk in.
Seems OK to me they're selling many times as much as about a dozen other manufacturers. I don't think they ever intended to "change the world" or take on the Model 3/Tesla in some kind of head-to-head. They're just in it to make some cash, nothing wrong with that so long as the people who get one are satisfied with the product.
I think the assumption is that the things Tesla are doing are so intrinsically revolutionary that unless GM et al try to go one better they're going to be left in the dust forever and everyone in America will be driving a Tesla product, there will be no room left for anyone else.
I don't think they believe that will be the case. If it turns out to be the case and everyone loves the Tesla in preference to anything else then there's probably nothing they could do or could've done to stop it, anyway.
f earnings for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars. However, now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, they will be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 produ ction. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter a nd for future quarters.
he time to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see som ething around $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump like that the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in ev ery thing important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit price y. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high sti ll compared to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the current losses.
how many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will continu e to ship in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced lat e in 2019 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 2020.
none of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wide fast charging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. O nce I found they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized t he Teslas were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk abo ut fast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when th ey will be.
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e are used to filling our tanks with gas. It's a bother, but we do it beca use we have to. The Tesla fills it's tank at home, overnight when we are a ll doing other things and electricity is cheap. :)
e your charging lined up just like driving in west Texas. With the Tesla i t's all programmed into the car! GPS with knowledge of both the Supercharg ers and the other charging networks is on your dashboard. The Chevy Bolt r equires you to bring your own GPS and database. :(
about to fall on its sword. Tesla's production is limited by how big the building is, so they extended that with a huge tent! GM's production is li mited by how many people want to buy.
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't ramped up sales much over the last YEAR! Is GM having production proble ms as well?
You are comparing the Bolt to hybrids and hydrogen vehicles??? What a reac h! I like the fact that you start off by acknowledging all three Tesla mod els sell better than the Bolt at half the price. With the model 3 being op en to new orders I guess they may have to pay people to take Bolts off the lot.
Sure, as others have pointed out the Bolt serves a purpose. Like the other all electric cars, if you have another car to take on longer trips you are fine. Without the charging network of fast chargers, electric cars are ba sically golf carts, keep them close to home. A friend has a place at Murre lls inlet and you can actually drive golf carts on the roads legally. No n eed for a Bolt in Murrells inlet then.
I'm not sure what you mean by "revolutionary". Electric cars are revolutio nary all by themselves. What Tesla is doing is taking responsibility for t he whole magilla knowing thet can't count on others to do it for them. I w ent in to test drive a Bolt some time back and when I asked the salesman ab out charging there wasn't much to say, "charging happens" and by someone el se who we don't even deal with. Even when discussing getting a home chargi ng outlet installed, GM washes their hands of it. The salesman was smart e nough to know he should at least have some phone numbers of electricians wh o knew what was needed.
I don't understand what any of this means. If people buy the Tesla in pref erence to other electric cars, it will be because they did a better job of figuring out what people will need and want. No rocket science, just plain paying attention to the customer.
Interesting that they went through a progression of car models to get to th is point of a mass-produced non-exotic car. There was a lot of learning ab out what car to make I think. They could have used some of GM's innate kno wledge of how to build the factory that builds the cars though. Every mode l they've had birthing pains. Now that the model 3 is on track for continu ed high volume production we will see how well the car really sales. If th e backlog is worked off by end of year or so and new orders continue to com e in, then all is good. But if model 3 sales drop after the backlog is fil led, they may be in trouble. If they can make profit from the $35,000 vers ion, they will be ok I think. That's not too much to pay for a nice car. Even if not everyone will be buying them, enough will to allow production t o continue and development result in lower priced versions.
Don't know anything about hydrogen vehicles, if you mean the Honda Clarity the Clarity I've seen is just a big-assed Honda wagon-thing with a plugin-hybrid drivetrain and a similar capacity battery pack to the Volt. AFAIK it uses a parallel drive-train similar to the Prius plug-ins so it can't be powered by battery alone over about 45 mph. Probably also popular with families.
GM holds pretty broad patents on the series-hybrid topology which are probably good for another decade or so.
The Ford Fusion Energi is kind of a joke not really worth discussing you can look up its specs such as they are and laugh if you wanna.
Remember also the Bolt and Volt were developed on a relative shoestring budget by probably like two dozen guys many of whom were probably working on other projects too. I think it's remarkable they came out as nice as they did given what they spent on R&D which wasn't that much, don't need to sell all that many to make money.
Shouldn't even be a contest given how much dough Tesla has burned through even considering they are a startup while GM has "some experience." I would expect it would be pretty good yeah? It should male my tea and fetch my groceries automatically too!
of earnings for the quarter is $-3.61. That's over half a billion dollars . However, now that they have production up to 5000 Model 3's per week, th ey will be bringing in around $3.25 Billion per quarter just on Model 3 pro duction. So I would be surprised if they didn't turn a profit next quarter and for future quarters.
the time to get in and invest in some Tesla stock. I'm expecting to see s omething around $2 a share for the following quarter. With an EPS bump lik e that the stock price should go up if the price currently is factoring in every thing important. But at $300 a share I'm not sure it isn't a bit pri cey. The $2 quarterly EPS would be $8 a year or a PE of 39 which is high s till compared to traditional stocks... but hugely different from the curren t losses.
d how many they can sell. In reality they have one product that will conti nue to ship in high volume. I believe a model Y is slated to be produced l ate in 2019 which should also be higher volume, so additional profit in 202
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g none of the other electric car makers and makers to be have, a nation wid e fast charging network. That made all the difference in the world to me. Once I found they were ramping up the build out of the network, I realized the Teslas were practical electric cars. Other electric car makers talk a bout fast charging, but the chargers aren't out there yet. Who knows when they will be.
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We are used to filling our tanks with gas. It's a bother, but we do it be cause we have to. The Tesla fills it's tank at home, overnight when we are all doing other things and electricity is cheap. :)
ave your charging lined up just like driving in west Texas. With the Tesla it's all programmed into the car! GPS with knowledge of both the Supercha rgers and the other charging networks is on your dashboard. The Chevy Bolt requires you to bring your own GPS and database. :(
is about to fall on its sword. Tesla's production is limited by how big th e building is, so they extended that with a huge tent! GM's production is limited by how many people want to buy.
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en't ramped up sales much over the last YEAR! Is GM having production prob lems as well?
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reach! I like the fact that you start off by acknowledging all three Tesla models sell better than the Bolt at half the price. With the model 3 bein g open to new orders I guess they may have to pay people to take Bolts off the lot.
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ther all electric cars, if you have another car to take on longer trips you are fine. Without the charging network of fast chargers, electric cars ar e basically golf carts, keep them close to home. A friend has a place at M urrells inlet and you can actually drive golf carts on the roads legally. No need for a Bolt in Murrells inlet then.
There you go, GM just isn't committed in any way to battery electric vehicl es. I read a very good book comparing the US and Japanese auto companies c alled "The Reckoning". It showed how a pure profit motive does not produce good vehicles. I'm not saying the Bolt or Volt are not good cars, but in the case of the Bolt GM just wasn't committed to the concept and it shows. They looked at the all electric Bolt the same way they look at any new car they produce. This time they needed to cast off their blinders and look a t the problem from a new perspective, but GM just isn't capable of that.
A bit more than two dozen guys: The Bolt was designed from 2012 by a team of 180 people in GM's Korea[12] studio (formerly Daewoo Korea)....
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Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
If you count everyone who did some CAD/CAM work on it and made the coffee, surely.
Circa late 2005-2006 the Volt design team only had one full-timer apparently. Even so they had a working prototype by late 2008 and a production-ready vehicle off to manufacturing for the 2011 model year.
"Lutz asked the team to do a pure electric vehicle, but they pushed back; they weren?t going to be stampeded into any particular course of action. The problem, as the team launched into engineering simulations and feasibility studies, was that GM?s engineers were intensely divided over whether future cars should be powered by diesel, E85, pure electric batteries, hybrids of various sorts involving both electric and combustion engines, or fuel cells that might operate on hydrogen or methanol. It was an emotional, high-stakes war among the tribes."
That makes a good conspiracy theory. In 2003, GM killed off their EV-1 electric car: To make sure that it doesn't rise from the dead in the US, they export the work to Korea and assign only a few engineers to the project. I don't know much about the history, but methinks that producing a deliverable car under the circumstances in about 8 years is a major accomplishment. GM seems to have made a mistake when they exported the project. If it had been designed in the US, it would never have left the drawing board.
How vulgar. Engineers should insult other engineers in engineering or at least technical terms. Something like: "May I suggest that you perform a hermaphroditic reproductive rite upon yourself" would be more appropriate.
I think they left out running on compressed air: or a steam car: as well as hydrogen, propane, methane, solar electric, wood burning, wood gas, compressed natural gas, human powered, etc. It's much easier to make such basic decisions if the design group is limited in size.
Indecision is the key to flexibility.
--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
Elon Musk calls himself a socialist, but "A socialist who believes wealth should be transferred to the people who can do the most good." E.g. him.
There's the type of socialism where the government partially funds private development of a technologically novel car and the private developer wraps that assistance into a lower the price the consumer pays, no questions asked.
Then there's the type of "socialism" where the government partially funds private development of a technologically novel car and the private developer turns around charges exactly the same or even more than the competing models because "We somehow had the funds to do it so much better!"
I can see how a lot of people would call that just straight "wealth transfer."
Americans don't know much about socialism (with the possible exception of N oam Chomsky and his fans). Most of them seem to think that it means that go vernment has got all the money and pays for everything that ought to get do ne. Musk may even sincerely think that he is a socialist.
The development component in the price of a mass market product isn't big e nough to make much of dent in the price. Tooling up for mass prodcution is a lot more expensive.
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Usually the government wants the technologically novel car to get into the market as fast as possible, and gives enough money to the manufacturer to m ake it happen. I was involved in that kind of project in the UK (during the very non-socialist Thatcher years) and ours crashed because while the gove rnemnt were giving us pots of money, the project ended up needing more engi neers than we had spare or could get, so we paid back the money and dumped the project.
Some technological improvements can be socially useful and well worth payin g for.
The American way is to decide that the military really need an electric jee p, and pays a defense contractor to develop one. Once the technology is all worked out, the defence contractor spins off an electric car company ...
We'll find out. Tesla is approaching if not at the 200,000 limit of the tax credit. The tax credit continues through the quarter following the quarter in which the limit is reached.
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