Tesla is fast

I'm making the point that the "average", aka "mean" is not a useful metric for understanding how many cars are on the roads of a given age. A better number is the median, where 50% of the cars built in a given year are no longer on the roads.

??? That's exactly what I'm saying and is true for cars where there is a long tail of people who don't drive so much or simply don't mind fixing them when they break.

Except that there are very few cars scrapped before the 12 year number you picked, very few. My experience is there are significant people who keep a vehicle until it is simply no longer worth running. That can be a while. Your hypothetical is not remotely realistic. A realistic curve of the number of cars remaining of a model year, would be nearly flat for the first some years with very few members removed other than the few by accidents. Then as, say 10 years is approached, the curve starts to fall a bit from high mileage driving taking it's toll, getting steeper over the next few years. so by something like perhaps 15 years, the majority of cars will have been scrapped. The curve would taper off once the number gets low enough, becoming a bit of a half life like curve. This curve is hard to visually pick a mean while a median is very simple, the point where the remaining number on the road is half the initial value. It's also hard to see how the initial part of the curve has very little impact on the mean, because what is being counted is actually the slope of the line, not the value.

So draw the graph that actually makes sense. The number of scrapped cars in each year. Initially it's very low, rising as the median is approached and falling away afterward with the peak at about the median. The fall, however, will be slower, partly because there are fewer cars on the road, but also because it's in a region where those people keep fixing them. So the long tail would move the mean above the median by some two or so years in my estimate.

As you say, we don't have the data to actually calculate this. Hmmm.... I did see something like this at one point, but I don't remember where.

Except that the same issue applies to the US number.

I won't argue that.

It's ludicrously insignificant, of the order of 1% to 2%. It also dependent on the manufacturer. Panasonic generally has lower internal resistance than LG or Samsung, for the same type and age of cells.

...

With an asymmetric data set such as we have here the median will be lower than the average so if the average is 15 years (13.9 for UK) the median will be somewhat lower.

I have found some data for the from NHTSA (unfortunately 15 years old from 2006) with vehicle survivability data.

By the 10th year almost 30% of cars have been scrapped. The median is between 12 and 13 years. Less than 8% survive for 20 years.

With modern cars the reason for a car being scrapped may be relatively trivial. About 15 years ago my seven year old BMW required $1,000 to repair the central locking system (it would lock everyone in the car except for the driver, it was just a faulty relay in a non-repairable module) and $800 to repair the radiator fan motor controller that was integrated into the radiator. The car was worth about $10,000 when I sold it shortly after. It wouldn't take many of those types of failures to make the car economically unviable.

kw

Ed Lee snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

Here's one for you...

By the way, the electrolyte medium can and does degrade altering the internal resistance (and performance) of the battery. And sorry to burst your bubble, but that evidence succinctly invalidates your claim and makes you the clown.

" snipped-for-privacy@kjwdesigns.com" snipped-for-privacy@kjwdesigns.com wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

Ding!

And then the environmetal impacts of the various chemistries weaighs in... by the ton.

Ed Lee snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

Why yes, you most certainly are.

You're done, punk.

snip

The interesting statistic in that paper is that the average miles driven on a car is only 152,137 miles! I would have expected this to be closer to 200,000. I wonder if this is impacted by the relative age of the data, 1977 to 2002?

It's the rest of the world doing the sanctioning, shooting themselves in the foot.

The batteries cost too much to make and there isn't enough electricity to charge them all.

Why are they called BEVs? That's tautological. Of course batteries are electric. Can't we just call them electric cars?

Most likely. The chemistry only allows a handful of years or 1000 charges.

Tesla don't even transfer the optional extras. They STEAL them back.

Sigh...

Tesla actually claim 1500 cycles and warranties them for 8 years. The latest batteries promise even longer lives.

I need to tell my friend with a 9 year old Tesla that his shouldn't be working any more and it is his imagination that lets him keep driving it.

The 8 year old battery in my MacBook with 94% capacity is also dead then, that's funny - I'm using it right now, so if you don't get this post it is because the battery died...

There is a grain of truth in that but the only "optional extra" that is in question is the "Full Self-Driving" and that is transferable through private sellers provided it was originally purchased with the car when new.

It may or may not be transferable through a dealer.

kw

There's plenty of electricity - by some calculations it would only increase electrical consumption by 15-20% if every car was electric. But since the majority are charged at night when power stations are sitting idle not much increase in infrastructure is required.

That is to distinguish them from Hybrid Electric Vehicles, "HEVs".

kw

So f*ck all.

My petrol car is still running after 20 years. So two battery changes would have cost....

I see vague promises all the time about batteries.

Do you really think you'll get that 358 miles?

And how much did this Tesla cost? Tesla are not affordable cars for the majority. Compare with a petrol car of the same value, oh wait, they don't make battery cars that cheap.

You hardly use collossal amounts of power from that. Now try running a science program like Boinc or Folding on it using the battery.

It's either true or it isn't. If you buy a new Tesla, get all the extras, then sell it to me 3 years later, what happens?

It went up by FIFTY percent recently and is due to do so again in autumn in the UK. A drastically higher price indicates a severe shortage. The UK government is now permitting drilling for oil and gas in new areas and forgetting the green crap. I'm actually looking forward to a shortage of energy, it'll make life fun.

Funny, by some calculations it would double it.

At night the green solar energy is off.

So why not say HEV and EV?

Or why not stop acronyms altogether? For example what is ICE? Apparently it now means internal combustion engine, but when all cars had engines, it meant in car entertainment (it has a decent stereo).

Which means lots of tiny cells means more monitoring.

My mobile phone's battery has expanded and ripped the back off the phone. Should I be worried?

I used to drive around with propane gas in the boot of my car. F*ck safety. Enjoy speed.

So why can't I post you some 18650 cells in the post? Why does the Royal Mail ban batteries in the post?

Just don't crash one whatever you do.

A BMW 3 series is very comparable to the Tesla Model 3 in features and costs about the same. The Tesla is higher performance.

I see that you clipped my full response. Here it is again if you missed it first time:

kw>There is a grain of truth in that but the only "optional extra" that is in question is the "Full Self-Driving" and kw>that is transferable through private sellers provided it was originally purchased with the car when new.

kw>It may or may not be transferable through a dealer.

So yes, if I buy a Tesla and sell it to you 3 years later you get everything I had.