I've never heard of bonds being described as a hedge against inflation before! :-D If you want that you should think about *physical* gold or silver - but primarily gold. And *invariably* physical. No "gold ETFs" or other similar derivatives that aren't worth the paper they're printed on.
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That's the problem. "Stimulus" is always long term. It's like being addicted to speed. Just one more hit.
No macroeconomist wants to admit that they can't control the world. Or the ones that do, everyone ignores.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
I wonder why Cursitor Doom thinks I hate the people who invest in fixed interest bonds? It's not a good long term choice, but it can be a sensible short term option.
He's probably confusing them with "rent seekers" which is a rather different group.
The global downtown that motivated that was the 2008 global financial crisis. We've been there for a while.
Only if you are as dumb as Cursitor Doom. Of course Donald Trump's solution - start a few trade wars - is even dumber.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Hmm, I just looked at treasury bonds,
5yr-1.57% 7yr-1.66% 10yr-1.76% 20yr-2.05% 30yr-2.24% They won't even keep up with inflation.Looking through corporate bond rates, I find they run 4.5% t0 6.75% The 6.75% high rate had a Moody's Ba1 rating, which is in the middle of their Aaa to C(default) so... not all that safe if that's why you are buying bonds. But let's say you go for a safe 4.5% and inflation, last year was
2.44%. I'll call that 2.5%, and 4.5 - 2.5 = 2%, so you can spend 2% and stay even with inflation. You need a lot of money to live on 2%, if you want it to last 30 years. The "standard" wisdom is, you can spend 4% a year if you have 80% or more in stocks and the money has a high percentage chance of lasting last 30 years.If you want that you should think about *physical* gold or
Never had an interest in gold. I'll stick to Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSAX. It has over 3,500 American stocks, and a lot of those stocks have international sales. If America does well, I do well.
Mike
Not exactly. Some economists specialise in producing opinions which suit ri ch people. Others don't. It's essentially two different communities of expe rts.
s.
e.
Daniel Kahneman
got the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on how people actually think.
It doesn't seem to have turned into better economic modelling yet - fear an d greed didn't come into it - but it might.
n. I
;-)
Actual cash transactions should be accessible a lot earlier - they'd have t o be anonymised - and I suspect that this is already going on.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
I suspect economists are very aware of the consequences.
The problem is that the people that implement policies don't care - politicians horizons are limited to the next couple of elections.
This is John Larkin channeling James Arthur, who never seems to get the mes sage about Keynesian deficit-funded pump-priming stimulus, which only makes sense when the economy is in recession.
Trump's corporate tax cut was touted as if was such a stimulus, but in fact it was just Trump giving rich people - like him - extra money at the expen se of regular tax payers.
Stimulus spending works for getting an economy out of recession.
The economists who don't like Keynes - mainly for pointing out that their m athematically tractable models of the economy aren't useful - deny this wit h persistence and enthusiasm, and make all kinds of absurd claims based n t heir adherence to a theory that doesn't work.
No macro-economists claims to control the world. They all claim to be able to offer useful advice. There are enough of them that politicians can alway s find somebody to advise them to do what serves the current political purp ose.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Bill Sloman wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:
That is EXACTLY what it was. +1
It's amazing that you can *always* be wrong, AlwaysWrong. Truly amazing. Not amazing at all that you and Slowman would be in a circle-jerk, though.
No. It allows small businesses to invest in employees and in growth. Business building is slow: it takes decades and generations of investment and learning to build most businesses. A modest tax cut, compounded over many years, will be good for the economy.
Most people don't understand "money." Business investment is not "at the expense of regular tax payers." Billionaires mostly hold stock shares in their companies, not sacks gold under their beds.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
No. The interventionist macroeconomists are selected and encouraged and funded by politicians who want to control things and elections.
Economists, like any other market commodity, are for sale.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
I don't think either has a job. Certainly neither designs electronics.
After the tax changes, we were able to instantly expense a couple million in building improvements and equipment. Affordable productivity.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
In a mutual admiration society/club, it is always difficult to separate cause from effect.
Does the potential difference across a resistor cause the current to flow, or the current flowing through a resistor cause the potential difference.
Mu.
Some "commodities" have sufficient self-respect not to sell themselves to the highest (financial) bidder.
Others don't; no surprises there.
That is *so* true. And I've learned over many decades that whenever I hear a newsreader announce, "a panel of 34 eminent economists all agree that [insert claim of choice here]" I know they've been hired to say it and whatever they're predicting will simply *not* come to pass. I've seen it over and over and over and over again.
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Well, Trump said he'd be the greatest jobs president in the history of the known universe and he's proved it!
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I work for a living (own no corporation) and have about as simple of a tax filing as you can imagine. I saw about a $3600 reduction in my taxes last year from the year before (year-end payment/refund plus withholding, something most forget).
Can you imagine how destructive the Democrat's dream of a "wealth tax" would be? Real, dynamic, cash leaving the economy to pay the taxes on all that static "wealth"?
Dream on. It might, but the small business isn't going to do that if it can't expect to sell the extra production from the extra employees.
With an erratic egomaniac busy making a mess of the economy by starting trade wars nobody can win, sensible small businesses think defensively.
Except where there's technological change. John Larkin isn't speaking from personal experience.
A modest budget deficit cuts investment in infrastructure, which isn't.
John Larkin has a funny idea of what most people understand.
The proposition that Donald Trump's cut in the corporate tax rate would lead to more business investment is even funnier.
People invest in perceived opportunities. If they don't see an opportunity, they don't invest.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
It's more amazing that krw can think that he is always right - though since his convictions aren't ever based on anything that looks like thought, it's more a manifestation of a cognitive defect than anything else.
And the only jerk in this circle is krw.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
You don't have to imagine it. A couple of European countries have demonstrated that it works, and hasn't destroyed anything.
Krw doesn't know much - and long since lost the capacity to learn anything - so his imagination has cope with a dire shortage of real-world information.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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