Re: OT - Major quake prediction - dec 20007

> Sub : Major Earthquake that can outperform 2004-Sumatra is predicted

> > to occur between 23-dec and 29-dec 2007, by an Indian Astrologer > > Mr Natarajan.

Now hold on a minute, this guy could have something here..... In the (wonderful) book, the Black Swan by Nicholas Taleb, he says pretty plainly that there really aren't many "experts" out there, and few fields even can support experts.

The rest are just lucky recipients of random chance. So in other words, if you have a lucky streak and get a few early predictions right, all of the sudden you're an "expert". when really it's just dumb luck.

He goes on to say that you're much better off getting your stock advice from a New York cab driver than an investment banker. Not because the advice is any "better", but because you're less likely to place any faith in it.

So I say, this Indian Astrologer guy is like the New York City cab driver. Maybe we ought to listen to him? Or maybe we ought to stop listening to those hurricane prediction "experts"?

-mpm

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mpm
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