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To someone who claims he has. Your 22nd November pratfall suggests that your own evaluation of your expertise isn't all that realistic.
The section snipped seems to have been
" > I argue from knowledge, confirmed and supported by an expert with > impeccable recommendations from someone I know, trust, and respect.
And your 22nd November report of what they had said was fatuous nonsense. There are several possible explanations for this, and none of them leave you with any kind of credibility. "
I don't see any conspiracy theory here, but a reference to a post where your claimed expertise seems to have deseted you.
o o sCongratulations. You've established that you then knew that the current generation of climate models represent a simplified model of the world.
What you don't seem to realise is that all computer models are simplified models, and that some are more simplified than others
Despite your scepticism, one can make broad-brush predictions about the climate without knowing the exact path that the ocean currents follow from the equator to the poles. We've got a tolerably good idea of how much heat has to be moved, and that can be handled as a lumped approximation.
Obviously, this loses you the bobbles on the on the warming curve that correspond to the El Nino and La Nina alternation, and the similar - if slower - alternation in the North Altlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but these are oscillations and cycle back to repeat themselves over the years, while the CO2 level just keeps on going up.
I'm not saying that a more detailed model capturing more of the observations wouldn't be better, but computer based simulation always depends on manipulating a simplified model of reality, and their usefulness - in this context - doesn't lie in exactly predicting what the climate will look like next year, but rather roughly what it would look like in a century.
Effectively you are asking for a weather prediction program, when you should know that such programs break down due to the butterfly effect with a fortnight, and you are ignoring the techniques used to immunise climate prediction programs agains the butterfly effect, as well as neglecting the obvious point that the current generation of climate models are aimed at finding out how difficult we are going to make life for our children (or nieces and nephews) and their children and are thus sub-optimal for predicting next years weather.
-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen