OT: Super-spreading in Covid-19

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A recent Proceedings of the (US) National Academy of Science has am interes
ting - if highly technical paper - on the influence of super-spreaders on  
the way that Covid-19 epidemic extends

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/47/29416.full.pdf

They make an appreciable difference and strategies aimed at stopping the oc
casional super-spreader from  infecting a lot of people are probably worth  
the extra effort. My reading of the message is that lock downs are worth th
e trouble and expense, but the paper merely points out that preventing larg
e gathering of susceptible individuals would be a useful reaction to their  
findings.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Super-spreading in Covid-19
On 29-Nov-20 4:11 pm, Bill Sloman wrote:
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Don't tell the majority of the Supreme Court, who seem to think that
Jewish wedding attendance and bicycle purchase present similar risks.

Sylvia.

Re: OT: Super-spreading in Covid-19
On 11/29/2020 12:23 AM, Sylvia Else wrote:
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They don't believe any such thing, it's about setting precedent they  
think will provide an avenue to overturn Roe v. Wade etc.

Re: OT: Super-spreading in Covid-19
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 12:11:36 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
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esting - if highly technical paper - on the influence of super-spreaders on
 the way that Covid-19 epidemic extends  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
occasional super-spreader from infecting a lot of people are probably worth
 the extra effort. My reading of the message is that lock downs are worth t
he trouble and expense, but the paper merely points out that preventing lar
ge gathering of susceptible individuals would be a useful reaction to their
 findings.

LOL- thanks for the simple minded interpretation on a level to be expected  
from a pre-pubescent boy scout of mediocre intelligence writing a book repo
rt for a public safety merit badge.  

Maybe you could explain just exactly what fat tailed distributions are and  
how that ties in with extreme value statistics and the estimation of this d
ispersion parameter they figure into disease spread?

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Re: OT: Super-spreading in Covid-19
On Monday, November 30, 2020 at 2:14:01 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:
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eresting - if highly technical paper - on the influence of super-spreaders  
on the way that Covid-19 epidemic extends  
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e occasional super-spreader from infecting a lot of people are probably wor
th the extra effort. My reading of the message is that lock downs are worth
 the trouble and expense, but the paper merely points out that preventing l
arge gathering of susceptible individuals would be a useful reaction to the
ir findings.
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d from a pre-pubescent boy scout of mediocre intelligence writing a book re
port for a public safety merit badge.  

Which means that Fred Bloggs doesn't like my interpretation, but can't expl
ain why.

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d how that ties in with extreme value statistics and the estimation of this
 dispersion parameter they figure into disease spread?  

Why not read the paper? It goes into what they mean by a fat-tailed distrib
ution in some detail - which is what I meant by "highly technical". If I wa
nted to find out more detail I'd ask my cousin the statistician. He's got a
 Ph.D. in the subject and spent some time as a professor teaching people ab
out it.

 --  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

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