Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United States

For world COVID19 data, the following website is very useful. The plots are very easy to assess, especially the log view. While the US is shown, all countries are available, as is the raw data.

.

Of course, there are many countries that do not provide reliable data, so use the necessary dash of salt.

Joe Gwinn

Reply to
Joe Gwinn
Loading thread data ...

I've been posting links to

formatting link

for some months now. It's pretty comprehensive, and lets you flip graphs from linear to logarithmic, and display three- and seven-day running averages.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

The second peaks in Europe are amazing. I was speculating if Belguim would have a second daily-case peak that hit 10x the first one. The ratio is now over 11:1 and still increasing.

France is at 9x and climbing. Netherlands is almost 9 and climbing. UK is ugly too.

Some of the ratio can be explained by testing density, but the big second peaks are very real.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

Science teaches us to doubt. 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
jlarkin

On the same site, the following 'data explorer' web page allows you to select data types, country(s) and display method, without changing url/web page.

formatting link

RL

Reply to
legg

And do you know why "running" averages might be useful?

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

What we are seeing looks to me like the combination of differences in vulnerability (Italians and Spanish seem most vulnerable, for unknown reasons, although the genome locus that causes this is known), and the fact that lockdowns only stop the clock for a while, only to resume when the lockdown is relaxed.

In most places, the current wave has as many or more case, but far fewer deaths per case than earlier waves, probably because of depletion of the susceptable.

Joe Gwinn

Reply to
Joe Gwinn

Expanded:

Yes, that's quite useful too.

Joe Gwinn

Reply to
Joe Gwinn

That may very well be one factor.

I saw an article recently which said that in some areas, the post-hospital-admission death rate had dropped from 20-some percent down to between 7% and 8%. Three factors were suggested as being involved:

- A higher percentage of those being hospitalized are young (and hence less likely to progress to severe illness). This may tie in to your "depletion of the susceptible", as well as the reported tendency of the young to pay less attention to mitigation (social distancing, mask wearing).

- Better treatment, and a better understanding of which patients are going to need which sorts of interventions in order to recover. Just the use of dexamathasone on the seriously ill seems to have made a significant difference.

- Quite possibly, the common use of masks. Although consumer- grade masks don't block all incoming virus particles, they may be _reducing_ the amount of inhaled virus enough to make a real difference. There's apparently evidence accumulating to indicate that the amount of virus one inhales, may significantly influence how ill one becomes - a heavier initial viral load leading to a more rapid infection and thus less time for the immunue system to react.

Reply to
Dave Platt

Probably so. Lockdowns had multiple bad side effects.

Depletion suggests that the virus was very widespread in the first peak and took out most of the weak people, which is contrary to most theory, and also conflicts with having a big second peak.

Lots of countries had a big spike, a long low plateau, and then a second, sudden giant peak that's still climbing. They should peak and drop off soon, like the first one. A couple already have.

Possibly the virus has genetically drifted to be more infectuous and less deadly. They tend to do that.

Reply to
John Larkin

Also multiple good side effects (flu is down this year, air quality is better), as well as a good main effect.

Lockdowns do NOT stop the clock, they turn positive growth into negative growth (diminution), which one can learn from studying the bumps.

That's why the curves peak and turn down.

Reply to
whit3rd

Yeah the air quality may be better but the trees and grasses around here went nuts, worst spring pollen season ever.

Reply to
bitrex

People can't get it into their heads that Covid-19 is a virus disease and y ou mostly catch it by inhaling droplets of mucus containing Covid-19 virus particle which have been exhaled by people who have got it.

Italians and Spanish stand closer together tha people of other nationalitie s - this is feature of their society, rather than their genomes.

Lock downs don't "stop the clock" - they just mean that there a fewer oppo rtunities for people to stand close enough to one another to pass on the vi rus if one of them has got it.

If you sustain the lock-down until until nobody is infected, the epidemic c an't resume when you relax it. This happened some time ago in New Zealand, and we are - finally - almost there in Australia.

Lots of places have politicians who are susceptible to pleas from business people to end lock-downs too early. It doesn't help if there hasn't been vi gorous contact tracing and pre-emptive quarantine of people who might have got infected - which is a whole lot more effective than lock down, to the p oint where South Korea never bothered with lock downs.

Places like the US - where the fact that contact tracing can't be funded on a fee-for-service basis means that it doesn't happen - and the UK where th e government had decided that contact tracing was too expensive and cut bac k heavily on their contact tracers a few years before the pandemic - have a real problem.

deaths per case than earlier waves, probably because of depletion of the s usceptible.

In most cases the current wave is recent enough that newly infected haven't had time to die. John Larkin made the same idiotic observation early in th e US second wave, which peaked on the 24th July. Deaths didn't peak until t he 7th August. Elderly people have learned that they are particularly likel y to die, and most of them - Donald Trump is an exception - have had enough sense to take particular care to avoid getting infected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

John Larkin showing sone sign of sense, for once.

John Larkin is totally incapable of thinking about what is actually going o n - which is infected people infecting other people, until the news about t he increased chances of infection frightens the more sensible people into w earing masks and avoiding large gatherings.

deadly. They tend to do that.

The virus is being sequenced more or less non-stop. There is some genetic d rift going on, but it doesn't seem to be making much difference to it's inf ectiousness nor it's lethality.

John Larkin came up with the same idiot proposition during the US second wa ve, where number of new infections per day peaked on the 24th July, and th e deaths didn't peak until the 7th August. It takes while - typically 14 days but it can be longer - for a Covid-19 infection to move from being vis ible enough for the victim to get tested to move to the point where the inf ection will kill you (if it's going to).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.