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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 11:44:16 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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house  
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ion."
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or a  
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The solar output was appreciably lower back then, and we needed a thicker b
lanket.

In fact you need the continents to be in just the right places to make ice  
ages possible.

Having Antarctica bang over the South Pole keeps ocean current from deliver
ing enough heat there to keep it ice free so that it can absorb 95% of the  
incident solar radiation, rather than 30%, while having a largely land-lock
ed Arctic ocean stops ocean currents from delivering enough heat there to k
eep it largely ice-free (though we now seem to have enough CO2 in the atmos
phere to melt most of the floating ice every summer).  

Geologically speaking, this doesn't happen often.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
snipped-for-privacy@notreal.com wrote:

  
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Check Fig. 2. Temperature and CO2 rise together.

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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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Ah, so Antarctica is the "globe", now?  

<http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 11:36:23 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@notreal.com wrote:
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ouse  
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on."
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r a  
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Krw didn't read the link he posted - or didn't understand it if he did read
 it.

Historically, CO2 levels lag temperature rises because the flip from a glac
ial to an inter-glacial is driven by subtle changes in where the sun shine  
brightest  
at particular parts of the year - Milankovich effect.

That provides the - small - initial warming, that drives CO2 out of a sligh
tly warming ocean to produce extra heating by the greenhouse effect. By bur
ning fossil carbon and injecting the extra CO2 into the atmosphere, we get  
the warming directly, rather than as a positive feedback.

In fact half the CO2 we inject into the atmosphere ends up dissolving in th
e oceans - warmer oceans can dissolve less CO2  but we haven't warming them
 enough yet for the reduced solubility to trump the increases partial press
ure of CO2 int the atmosphere.  

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Something else that krw didn't actually understand, but didn't bother to sn
ip.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Wednesday, March 28, 2018 at 3:33:41 PM UTC-4, Steve Wilson wrote:
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Sure, maybe.  I've not studied climate science.  I tend to believe  
most scientists.  AGW is now political, at least in the US.  
Once things become political, people say all sorts of silly things.

George H.    
  

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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AGW doesn't exist in the US. DT says so. But it sure exists everywhere  
else.

Many states are vowing to stick to the Paris agreement.  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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States don't have that power.  Don't be so stupid.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Wed, 28 Mar 2018 18:39:36 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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Any "science" that is not subject to serious experimental verification
is prone to silly fads.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 29/03/2018 2:21 PM, John Larkin wrote:
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Like geology, astronomy and paleontology?

John Larkin doesn't really understand "experimental verification" and  
climate science has a lot of climate data to observe.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Wednesday, March 28, 2018 at 11:22:05 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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Huh, well from my view all sciences are subject to fads.  At the latest APS  
meeting all the buzz was about quantum computing.  (I guess the buzz  
mostly follows the money... or maybe it's visa versa?)  Observational  
sciences, like archaeology or paleontology can make mistakes that take a  
while to correct. (Putting a head on the wrong body.) But that's not  
really a fad.  I guess I mostly find it sad that ~1/2 of the US has lost  
their trust in science.  Sure the scientists themselves are partly to blame.

George H.        
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 07:15:12 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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But F=M*A still works to many decimal places. Einstein just added some
corner cases. The Standard Model explains most everything, and any
future tweaks won't trash its basic correctness.

Psychology, sociology, much of medicine, lots of biology, swing wildly
over the years. I have mostly survived lots of medical mistakes.




  At the latest APS  
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The US public isn't so dumb. People know that their phones work, that
a satellite will crash in the next couple of weeks, that eclipses show
up on schedule to the minute. They don't trust weather or climate
predictions and are often skeptical about economics and social
engineering.

They remember when margarine and statins were considered healthy.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:27:51 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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Sure, I think a lot has to do with having the right tools.  
Biology is a lot more complicated than say physics or electronics.  
So until we have the right tools we make up stories.. .that are mostly  
wrong, or at least incomplete.  


The US public is deathly afraid of radiation.  Any type, in any amount.  

George H.  

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 07:39:29 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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In most people, fear easily overpowers reasoning.

This is cool:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/29/poll-fewer-republicans-and-independents-fear-climate-change-more-democrats-do/

I have long thought that the left/right population split was dominated
by peoples fear reactions, with leftists more dominated by fear.

"Ninety-one percent of Democrats and 33% of Republicans say they worry
a great deal or fair amount about global warming, but 67% of
Republicans worry only a little or not at all."

Left/right isn't about theories of management: it's about being
afraid, or not.

We evolved in a very dangerous world, and live in a relatively safe
one, but the influence of fear is still huge. It's like our immune
systems: when we are no longer assaulted by plagues and parasites and
infections, we AGC our sensitivity and become allergic to pollen and
peanuts.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 3:14:20 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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te:
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t  
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lly  
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eeded  
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.    
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ion
me

Pity that John Larkin's critical faculties didn't make it.

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Perhaps not. In a country where the top 1% of the income distribution contr
ols the country for it own benefit, that group wants to minimise evidence-b
ased thinking in the rest of the population.

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They don't. Statins were always drugs - with side effects. Nobody calls pen
icillin "healthy". Margarine is a food, and it was advertised as being "hea
lthy" but that doesn't mean that is was actually considered to be "healthy"
.

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-and-independents-fear-climate-change-more-democrats-do/

Breitbart would spin it that way. Waht the survey actually says is that Rep
ublicans are ill-informed about climate change, and don't take it as seriou
sly as they should - which in part reflects the enthusiasm with which the K
och brothers have poured money into denialist propaganda.
  
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Ignorance is bliss.
  
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It's more about the left being intersted in what's actually going on, and t
he right being content with things as they are (no matter how bad they are)
.

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Not exactly. It took quite a lot of scientific investigation to work out th
at global warming was going on at all - the signal only crept out of the ba
ckground noise around 1990 - and the perceptions that it is accelerating an
d is real problem are inconvenient to people who make their money by diggin
g up fossil carbon and selling it as fuel, so they've spent a lot of money  
lying to the public about the seriousness of the problem, using the same te
chniques and some of the same people who did the same service for the tobac
co industry fifty years ago.

John Larkin is a vain and gullible sucker, so he prefers to see the people  
who haven't been fooled as over-anxious, rather than less gullible.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:27:51 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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Nice article in a recent WSJ about how the  "expert " economic predictions for the effect of Brexit were way off.  

Dan

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 07:53:44 -0700 (PDT), " snipped-for-privacy@krl.org"

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Economists are mostly idiots. Their predictive value is zero or worse,
and their influence, if any, is often self-serving and destabilizing.
The more economists manage an economy, the worse things get.




--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 3:03:43 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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Brexit hasn't actually happened yet, so one has to wonder what the "predictions" are being tested against. Dan isn't bright enough to notice the problem there.
  
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Far from it, but lots of them are mercenary, and produce the predictions that well-heeled customers find attractive. If you can't produce reliable predictions, t makes sense to produce profitable ones.  

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Sorting out which predictions are intended to be predictive and which are merely designed to keep well-heeled and generous supporters happy isn't all that easy.

In practice it isn't economists who manage an economy, but the fat cats who tell the economists what to predict, and tell the politicians which economists to take seriously.

That kind of fat cat is more influential in the US than in most other advanced industrial countries, where the electoral laws make it more difficult for really rich people to buy political influence.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 29/03/2018 17:03, John Larkin wrote:
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Economists are definitely not idiots. Keynes was amongst the brightest  
intellectuals of his generation and a long way ahead of his time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes

Post 2008 he is back in fashion again at least in some quarters.

I have had a chance to examine and play with some of the UK economic  
models and the main problem is actually knowing what the true boundary  
conditions are. They are forever revising national figures later because  
accountancy firms are so inclined to help businesses massage figures.

Spectacular boom bust cycles occur roughly every 80 years or so.  
Essentially it is governed by the corporate memory, greed and ignorance  
of history. The railroad bonanza was one of the big ones in the UK and  
is recent enough to have decent documentation and far enough away to see  
as history unaffected by modern political affiliations (it ended badly):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania#The_end_of_the_Mania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1847

There is an irate letter to the bankers written at that time which is  
pretty much identical to the one written in 2008. Only the physical  
medium being speculated in changes with each new financial crash  
(Bitcoin may yet have its day in the spotlight).

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Not true. If they do it right you can head off some of the excesses of  
the unfettered free market like wrapping turds in gold leaf and selling  
them on as solid gold bullion which is what led to the 2008 crash.
(actually sub prime mortgages but the principle is the same)

Moral hazard is that the global banks are mostly all "too big to fail"  
which means that you cannot hold them to account if they go haywire. You  
have to keep an eye on them to prevent fraud like manipulating exchange  
rates, insider trading and other gross abuses of power.

Economists may be imperfect but they do serve a useful purpose even if  
some of what they say is complete nonsense. You cannot adequately model  
herd instinct which is what tends to drive irrational exuberance  
bubbles. Fear of missing out on big gains drives people to take high  
risks in the hope of big rewards whilst the smart money quietly gets  
out. It almost always the little guys who get burned this way.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Fri, 30 Mar 2018 14:06:40 +0100, Martin Brown

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More like 15 lately. The .com bust, the last real estate bust, the
upcoming copies, were all visible, but few economists said anything. I
hope they lost big.

  
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Yeah, *if* they do it right. But they don't.

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Economic policy should add stability to the system, but few economists
have the sense or guts to advise that. QE is an insane destabilizer,
but macroeconomists love to play with trillions.

There are hardly any microeconomists. Economists can't seem to
appreciate that the macroeconomy is the sum of all the micro-inputs.
Mere millions of dollars are not exciting to write papers about.




--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 1:12:12 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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They have in Australia.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia

We haven't experienced a recession since 1991. We even managed to sail thro
ugh the Global Financial Crisis (with quite a bit of pump-priming spending)
.

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Australia's banks are guilty of a lot of that.

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Quantitative easing doesn't seem to have destablised anything. James Arthur
 thinks that it has to, but can't point to any actual evidence of instabili
ty.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Yunus

He got a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on microcredit and microfinance.

His bank was profitable enough that the Bangladeshi government eventually n
ationalised it "wresting control of it from the 8.4 million rural women tha
t own a majority of its shares".

This isn't the kind of microeconomics that John Larkin appears to be thinki
ng of - but economists in reality don't have any trouble with the idea that
 the macroeconomy is just the sum all all the transactions - large and smal
l - going on in the country, any more than chemists have a problem with the
 idea that chemical reactions are just the sum of lots of individual atoms  
and molecules interacting.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney



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