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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 1:24:04 PM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@notreal.com wrote:
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One of them might be getting enough global warming to start methane ice com
ing apart. Methane is a greenhouse gas, so more methane means more warming,
 which melts some more methane ice, releasing even more methane.

Something like that seems to have happened at the start of the Paleocene-Eo
cene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

The global temperature went up five degrees Kelvin over 2000 years. Somethi
ng was dumping 0.2 gigatons of carbon per year into the atmosphere in the f
orm of methane (the carbon-13 to carbon-12 ratio shifts in the carbonate la
yers laid down at the time in a way that says there was a lot of methane ar
ound at the time). Methane ice is a plausible source.

The current warming in the Arctic seems to be boiling methane out of the pe
rmafrost at a great rate, if not - yet - at PETM rates.

We are dumping around around 10 gigatons of carbon a year into the atmosphe
re at the moment, which may be swamping the methane contribution. As we war
m the place up, the methane ice contribution may become larger, more visibl
e and lot harder to turn down.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Fri, 30 Mar 2018 17:22:19 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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Occasionally dumping a bucket of dirt in your yard will keep ahead of
sea level rise.

I grew up three blocks from the Mississippi River, and looked UP at
the ships passing by. We had a levee to keep us dry.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 2:06:21 PM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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The sea level rise that is going on at the moment. Hurricanes give occasional spikes. The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets have the capacity to makes more significant and more persistent changes.
  
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You'd moved away before Hurricane Katrina?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_New_Orleans

not all of those levees survived it.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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Till the hurricanes came.



Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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I experienced lots of hurricanes, notably Camille and the eye of
Betsy. The Mississippi River levees around New Orleans were not
breached.

What failed during Katrina were the miserably inadequate levees on two
artificial, ungated waterways, the 17th St Canal and the Industrial
Canal.

Katrina just had an unlucky track, that piled up water North and then
pushed it South. People in New Orleans had long conjectured that that
path would be awful, but let the good times roll.


--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 11:22:23 AM UTC+11, George Herold wrote:
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d
e
m
on
obal  
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Current sea level rise is essentially the ocean acting like a thermometer -
 as it gets warmer it expands.

Sea level rise only gets interesting when the Greenland (6 metres of sea le
vel rise)and the West Antarctic (4 metres of sea level rise) ice sheets sta
rt sliding off into the sea. Nobody know exactly when this might happen, bu
t it's very likely to happen tolerably soon.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/mar/22/sea-level-rise-james-hansen
-climate-change-scientist

The critical changes are happening at the bottom of the ice sheets, which i
sn't a particularly accessible area, so computer modelling doesn't have lot
 of data to play with. Ice sheets aren't all that stable

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event

and we don't really know why.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 7:23:53 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
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Oh dear, let's not get into language arguments.
Science starts out almost totally wrong, and get's less  
wrong over time.  Is there anything wrong with that statement?  

At least that's the hope.  

George H.    
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Fri, 30 Mar 2018 17:31:31 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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Without real feedback, and good experiments, it just wanders around.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 2:08:35 PM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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John Larkin isn't aware that it's good observations that make good science. If you can do experiments to create the opportunity to make good observations, progress is easier, but astronomy has done fine with observation alone.

John Larkin is insensitive to real world feedback, or he would have long ago stopped insisting that experimental science is the only kind that works.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 3:04:53 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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l
't
rums,
-declared, right before
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 better one appears.
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ecialists'
  
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In the observational sciences - which John Larkin clearly knows nothing abo
ut - "wrongness" is corrected by more observations. He needs to think about
 astronomy.
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An unsubstantiated claim. When John Larkin can be persuaded to post example
s which he imagines support this fatuous (bit persistent) claim, he merely  
reminds us that he doens't know much about science, and that what he thinks
 he knows is largely wrong.

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Observations aren't experiments, but they can be used to falsify hypotheses
. If John Larkin had any idea what he was talking about, he'd be aware of t
his.
  
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In fact there are statistical techniques which let you work out whether a c
orrelation is statistically significant. John Larkin hasn't got a clue abou
t them either.

All cross-correlation can throw up are associations, not causal relationshi
ps, and it is well known that while correlation may suggest causation, it d
oesn't prove it. You might be able to publish a suggestive correlation, but
 you'd pretty much have to hypothesise a testable cause and effect relation
ship to get it into the literature.

Testing cause and effect relationships can be tricky. In medicine it would  
be unethical to withhold a potentially helpful treatment to establish cause
 and effect. Prospective studies can work, but they can take decades to pro
duce results.

John Larkin's ignorance is unfortunate, and his failure to appreciate just  
how ignorant he is is even more unfortunate.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 30/03/2018 15:23, George Herold wrote:
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And they were *partly* right too. The insulin response is a big factor  
in longer term obesity leading to type II diabetes. It is presently  
reckoned that about 80% of type II diabetes cases are diet related.

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To first order <weight gain> = <calories in> - <calories out> too.

There is some variation in base metabolic rate so some people stay  
naturally slim whatever. A rower friend of mine in the "increasing  
weight" cohort lost weight during the experiment because their diet plan  
was less than he would normally eat as a superfit national class rower.

US supersized junk food and the high fructose sugar lobby pretty much  
ensures that most Americans have a terribly unhealthy diet.

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HEP has always been a bit like stamp collecting or more unkindly  
attempting to understand horology by smashing together clocks at ever  
increasing speeds. Some damn good physics involved in making the kit.
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I'm ambivalent about string theory. One of my contemporaries is now a  
leading string theorist - until it makes testable predictions that are  
different to conventional Big Bang cosmologies it is an interesting  
novelty but nothing more. We are about due for a paradigm shift though  
and they do usually come from a new branch of mathematics finding a  
symmetry fit with existing physics that allows for new insights. It  
could be string theory, spinors or some other Clifford algebra that  
eventually breaks down the door and unifies gravity with quantum theory.

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Arguably science is always wrong in the sense that there is never any  
possibility of proof of correctness like you have in mathematics. It is  
never exact but the best approximation that we have at present to  
describing how nature works but it is always possible to force a rethink  
by a clever experiment or new data that refutes an established theory.

The Michelson-Morely ether drift experiment being one of the most famous  
and incredibly sensitive null results.

The new theory will contain the old one as a weak field limiting case  
but also explains the newest contradictory observations as well. It is  
always a case of progressive refinement toward some unknown goal.

Most physicists would consider the various conservation laws to be  
pretty close to inviolate (at least their GR equivalents are). Putting  
them almost into the same category as axioms in mathematics.

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Most science courses do at least touch on the history of how we got to  
the the present level of understanding. The newest stuff these days is  
just too difficult to teach to undergraduates!

Dodgy claims like "physics will be completely solved in twenty years"  
made just before the discovery of radioactivity for instance.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 6:38:25 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
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Yeah, I don't know for sure, but he (Gary Taubes) gives several examples
of populations getting access to raw sugar/corn syrup and getting  
obese/ diabetes in ~20 years.  It might just be correlation and  
not causation.  Multiple year nutrition studies are hard,
(and rats don't always behave as humans.)  
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In the late 90's I was at Vanderbilt, which had a decent HEP group.
Every ~third colloquium would be HEP, which all had the same ending.
Everything still fits in the standard model.  
(Except for neutrino mass that seems interesting.)    
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I think it mostly fits JL's model of science losing it's way
without any new data.  

We are about due for a paradigm shift though  
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Yeah we need some smart kid to have some new ideas.  At the moment  
I like MOND or MOGR (modified general relativity)  but who knows.

George H.  
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 01/04/2018 16:54, George Herold wrote:
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Refined sugar and high availability of energy rich foods combined with a  
couch potato lifestyle makes it possible to get fat really quickly  
today. If you had to catch your food before you could eat it then things  
would be rather different and self limiting. We are engineered to store  
surplus food for the hard times as fat by our evolutionary biology.

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The way they make particles bunch in the containment rings is fun.

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It is a solution in search of a problem that it solves a bit like  
Dirac's -2 fish (which is related to him predicting antimatter).

We are in a golden age of observational astronomy at present with  
imaging at high resolution now possible in wavelengths that we  
previously had nothing at all - even terahertz.

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Recent discovery of diffuse galaxies apparently containing only baryonic  
matter look like they might kill off MOND/MOGR once and for all.

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature25767

Observational evidence is the final arbiter in these things.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 11:01:17 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
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That's very neat. Thanks.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sun, 1 Apr 2018 11:38:19 +0100, Martin Brown

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People can buy and eat whatever they want; we have a huge range of
choices. If an order of curly fries is gigantic, like the one we got
yesterday, three people and their dogs can share it.

I understand that some cultures don't like sharing or to-go boxes from
restaurants. Most people do that here. Both affect portion size. I can
get cassoulet from the little French place down the hill, have a lot
of bread and dessert, and take away another meal or two. Laurent, the
little French guy who runs the place, has got used to us barbarians.







--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sun, 01 Apr 2018 10:00:36 -0700, John Larkin wrote:

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Just be very careful with the fish! Radioactivity arising from the  
Fukushima incident is not being reported adequately.

https://www.davidwolfe.com/fukushima-radiation-tumors-fish-seafood/




--  
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the Usenet protocol. Reproduction in whole or part through other  
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sun, 1 Apr 2018 17:57:19 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom

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The sky isn't falling.  Really!

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sun, 1 Apr 2018 17:57:19 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom

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If you really want to avoid lethal doses of radiation, don't eat
bananas.


--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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https://xkcd.com/radiation/

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Sun, 1 Apr 2018 14:55:35 -0700 (PDT), Lasse Langwadt Christensen


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Indeed.  Though, far too few people would understand that panel, even
if shown.  Areas/powers confuse people.

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