You guys are unusually quiet. Let me break the silence.
?The Model 3 is amazing, the owners love it, the product is the big gest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chief ex ecutive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Monica a nd a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bankrupt .?
Wrong, the is no chance for Ch 7, but 100% chance for Ch 11.
What is Tesla 2.0 worth? Perhaps 20B, but including 10B bonds. So, the cu rrent stock should be less than $100.
This is assuming Musk and the current BOD would be replaced.
On Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 8:24:30 AM UTC-7, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com w rote:
iggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chief executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Monica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bankru pt.?
current stock should be less than $100.
More fun:
"Elon Musk says an ?extreme shortage? of car carrier traile rs is partly to blame for Tesla?s delivery woes. And in typical Mus k fashion, the answer is for Tesla to build its own trailers."
I mentioned that hypothesis a while back in response to the silly post from ZeroHedge about "unsold/defective Teslas rusting in a field!" (yeah cars just rust away so fast in that awful Fremont, CA climate...)
It was because there aren't enough lowball price auto rack trailers available all at one time to ship them; there's an extreme shortage of long haul truck drivers in the US (I know this because I listen to RoadDog Trucking Radio on Sirius a lot in the car I do that because as a "leftist" I hate blue-collar workers so much. or something.) The average age of a long-haul driver in the US is like 52 or something the population of drivers is aging out.
There would be enough if Elon Musk wanted to pay the right price, for the right price I guarantee you you'd have every owner-operator in the nation beating down his door to ship them. So yeah there is a shortage partially self-induced in that a) they didn't plan the logistics too good and b) they're not putting enough cash on offer to do it fast because that would wreck their margin. And they really need to make money on these cars.
But not sure how building one's own trailers solves this problem in the short-term vs. just cough up the cash to make it worth the time of the drivers that are already available to hustle up. No idea how the former option is going to be any cheaper short-term.
The Model 3 does seem to be a pretty nice car in many ways, however they're not currently moving them at the originally quoted price. If you were ready to move those onto dealer lots at $35,000 in 2014 or something holy shit license to print money.
But it's almost 2019 now and it's not currently at $35,000 car. GM has already moved over a quarter million Volts, the Bolt is selling too, other cars are selling and have been stealing market-share for years. Time will tell but I still think it's a day late and a dollar short. Sometimes it's better to be first and good enough than last and perfect.
e biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chi ef executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Mon ica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go ban krupt.?
he current stock should be less than $100.
ailers is partly to blame for Tesla?s delivery woes. And in typical Musk fashion, the answer is for Tesla to build its own trailers."
Tesla can always buy enough trailers and hire enough Musk relatives to driv e them. Well, it might be better for the Musk Clan to be class-A drivers t hen factory lookouts (not sure if they are doing real works).
Walk don't Run. Buy before Building trailers.
They have not sold any Model 2.5 under $50,000. People are still waiting f or Model 3 for $30,000 (less fed credits).
GM has hundreds if not thousands of dealers to deal with delivery. Can the y clone a thousand copies of Musk?
Investment banker "Tesla bulls" in my experience have never even looked at or sat in or drove or sat in any other options at any point in time, they concluded long ago Tesla was the One True Electric Car and all conclusions draw from that. If in your universe it's the only thing that exists naturally it must be the best of a sample of one.
Real consumers generally have a different mentality. Investment managers don't live regularly in the real world they take a helicopter or have a driver to go most places.
GM is probably sticking to its "Voltec" hybrid-modular-drivetrain system which they have a number of patents on in force for the better part of another decade, probably. It's a flexible design that can be applied to many different classes of vehicle either hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or pure EV.
It was also engineered to reduce as much as possible dependence on rare earth minerals from "difficult" parts of the world in favor of domestically-sourced minerals. Probably a good idea.
Time will tell. I live in lefty-land electric vehicles are not an uncommon sight here anymore. They were 4-5 years ago when I first started driving one, not anymore. I drive a lot I see at least a couple other Volts toodling around basically every day. All kinds of shit toodling around on the roads here Volts, Bolts, Leafs, plug-in Prius, I see some Audi e-Trons, the BMW i3 (and an occasional i8 supercar), I even seen a friggin plug-in Chrysler Pacifica at the grocery store the other day I didn't even know they made that.
I see a Model S from time to time and I've seen two Model 3s in the past several months. It's a bit early to say how many people here will end up buying them but gosh if you can't sell a ton of a "budget" electric sedan to all the well-heeled tree-huggers of the nation who exactly is the market here?
e biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chi ef executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Mon ica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go ban krupt.?
he current stock should be less than $100.
ailers is partly to blame for Tesla?s delivery woes. And in typical Musk fashion, the answer is for Tesla to build its own trailers."
If you read anything much about this issue that was credible you would know there is no shortage of equipment to haul cars to railroad depots for deli very. This is a fabrication.
It is not an issue, so it can't be a pricing issue. They need income to ma ke profit, letting cars sit unsold is not the way to make income or profit. The cost of hauling the cars for delivery is totally swamped out by virtu ally everything else.
It doesn't solve a problem only in part because the problem doesn't exist. I expect Musk was pushing to get as many cars as possible delivered by the end of the quarter. Someone told him they didn't have enough car carriers lined up to transport ever larger numbers. I believe he is currently runn ing in over-stressed mode and decided to turn to his strength to solve this problem... design he way out even if it couldn't possibly help.
There is a question whether they can make a profit on the $35,000 version. They are shipping as many of the maxed out cars as possible to bring the p rofits into the black. One article I read pointed out this would leave a p ool of mid-range model 3 orders to be filled in Q4 which then shifts the pr oblem rather than solves it.
The Volt has been selling for years in low numbers. Tesla will very likely sell that many model 3s in 2019 if the company is still solvent. I don't know why you even try to compare the two. The Bolt is tied to home because of the lack of a fast charging ability, so only a commuter car. Useful, y es, a large seller, never.
The model 3 car is fine. The problem with Tesla is financing. If Tesla ha d decided to seek another round of equity financing six months ago and Elon had not opened his mouth about going private, the stock would be very high right now and they would be able to bring in billions of new funds assurin g their survival for a few more years. Now they have cash to last a year p erhaps. They have payments of over a billion dollars they may have to pay out. If they do and they don't raise more funding, they won't last.
iggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chief executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Monica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bankru pt.?
current stock should be less than $100.
Whatever happens with Tesla, it will soon be without Musk:
"The agency [SEC] said in the lawsuit that it seeks to bar Musk from being an officer or director of a public company."
biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chie f executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Moni ca and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bank rupt.?
At this time, if you want to use your BEV for trips, there is one reason to buy one BEV over another.... charging! Tesla is the only company that has even giving this problem consideration with a charging network. I proved to myself their solution is viable by driving from the east coast to Housto n by way of Tennessee and New Orleans and back. I didn't have any real iss ues with charging and in fact missed the fact that one hotel had a charger I could have used over night in place of a visit to a supercharger. Next t ime I will take the much more common but slower charger network into accoun t when staying at hotels.
There has been mention of some other vehicles such as the one produced by J aguar. But none of them are viable contenders for trips. Even if they can be charged on the Chademo network it currently takes twice as long as a Te sla Supercharger. Simply not viable.
had decided to seek another round of equity financing six months ago and El on had not opened his mouth about going private, the stock would be very hi gh right now and they would be able to bring in billions of new funds assur ing their survival for a few more years. Now they have cash to last a year perhaps. They have payments of over a billion dollars they may have to pa y out. If they do and they don't raise more funding, they won't last.
They was/is no chance of public financing without proper disclosures. Equi ty would have to take a huge hair-cut. They have less than 5 months to rep ay 1B. Reorganization before then.
The 80 cents bonds are good deal, but i am not qualified institutional inve stor.
How do you get the cars the cars where they need to go from where the train goes? Yeah you can ship a bunch of cars from California to Boston by rail. Then what? Hire a driver for every car to drive them 40 miles to the dealer in Podunktown Massachusetts (cuz that's where the Tesla dealership is)? that's not gonna be cheap either!
They're comparable because they took market share, whatever their capabilities are. A family who just bought a Bolt yesterday, whatever their reasoning or the Bolt's capabilities are or are not, is probably not in the market for a Model 3, tomorrow.
A lot of different cars in the same general class selling for years in low numbers = a lot of people not currently in the market for a new car of the same class. however super-neato it is.
Could be a great company without Elon Musk. Getting rid of him in favor of new management probably gonna be a problem.
biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chie f executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Moni ca and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bank rupt.?
e current stock should be less than $100.
g an officer or director of a public company."
ts-weigh-in-2018-9
The BOD needs to go also. They are not serving their share holders.
the biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, c hief executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa M onica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go b ankrupt.?
the current stock should be less than $100.
trailers is partly to blame for Tesla?s delivery woes. And in typic al Musk fashion, the answer is for Tesla to build its own trailers."
ah
a
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drive them. Well, it might be better for the Musk Clan to be class-A drive rs then factory lookouts (not sure if they are doing real works).
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ou
ng for Model 3 for $30,000 (less fed credits).
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they clone a thousand copies of Musk?
It doesn't really matter what GM does. GM is clearly not committed to prod ucing BEVs in any large number or in versions that are competitive. Some o f the European manufacturers appear to be committed to creating an expanded line of BEVs, but it will take time for them to be practical.
I saw a graph of charging network growth (not sure if it was US or global) where it is assumed Tesla doesn't build any more charging and the other ven dor builds according to their plan without interruption. They didn't catch up until something like 2025.
I assume you are referring to conflict minerals. Pretty much irrelevant. There are no minerals used in BEVs that can't be obtained in sufficient qua ntities from not so "difficult" parts of the world. Anytime conflict miner als show up it is because someone wants to make more bucks, not because the re aren't other sources.
Basically the people who wanted to put their money down quick when the tech got somewhat mature already did on something else. The easy sales have been somewhat eaten up. Now you gotta bet on selling to some tire-kickers, skeptics and hold-outs who take 3-6 months to come to the decision to pull the trigger on a Model X.
I test drove a Volt and told the salesman I was ready to buy, put my money down and bought it within four hours. Easy sale, everybody happy.
the biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, c hief executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa M onica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go b ankrupt.?
the current stock should be less than $100.
trailers is partly to blame for Tesla?s delivery woes. And in typic al Musk fashion, the answer is for Tesla to build its own trailers."
ah
a
ge
drive them. Well, it might be better for the Musk Clan to be class-A drive rs then factory lookouts (not sure if they are doing real works).
e
r
ou
ng for Model 3 for $30,000 (less fed credits).
Oh? Your personal experience is more indicative than the sales figures? I don't recall the exact numbers (I'll wait for the new numbers at the end o f October) but I think we are approaching the point where Tesla will have s hipped a majority of all BEVs in the world or maybe at least in the US. Th e statistics are pretty impressive really. It shows how Tesla is the only car company that takes the whole BEV idea seriously. That is not surprisin g given that they are the only car company with nothing to lose and everyth ing to gain by the success of BEVs. All the other car companies have a hug e infrastructure which they don't want to replace quickly. They much prefe r a long, drawn out transition.
I think other than the Bolts I've seen at the dealer and of course Teslas t he only BEV I've seen on the roads is a single Leaf.
biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, chie f executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Moni ca and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go bank rupt.?
e current stock should be less than $100.
g an officer or director of a public company."
ts-weigh-in-2018-9
Perhaps, but not a given. They caught a CEO in an insider trading scheme a nd he only got a fine. They may do that with Musk or who knows, he may get off. I read something about how the norms with the Saudis is verbal agree ments, so the usual requirement for paper and a fixed price may not stand u p in court.
On Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 1:05:24 PM UTC-4, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com w rote:
a had decided to seek another round of equity financing six months ago and Elon had not opened his mouth about going private, the stock would be very high right now and they would be able to bring in billions of new funds ass uring their survival for a few more years. Now they have cash to last a ye ar perhaps. They have payments of over a billion dollars they may have to pay out. If they do and they don't raise more funding, they won't last.
uity would have to take a huge hair-cut. They have less than 5 months to r epay 1B. Reorganization before then.
vestor.
That's now, but six months ago they were in a good position and with the po sitive production results from this quarter, even if not totally profitable , the stock would still be strong.
Mush is a problem. The "going private" thing is a big deal. But I don't s ee it as fatal. We will see what they do over the coming months. The comp any still has an awful lot going for it and a tremendous upside potential.
he biggest game changer over the next decade,? said Ross Gerber, ch ief executive at the Gerber Kawasaki investment management firm in Santa Mo nica and a longtime Tesla bull. ?There is no chance they will go ba nkrupt.?
the current stock should be less than $100.
ing an officer or director of a public company."
erts-weigh-in-2018-9
and he only got a fine. They may do that with Musk or who knows, he may g et off. I read something about how the norms with the Saudis is verbal agr eements, so the usual requirement for paper and a fixed price may not stand up in court.
Think about this. The Saudis wealth fund would be buying Tesla with more t han 50% of their worth. Any manager considering such deal should be fired (probably in squad)
sla had decided to seek another round of equity financing six months ago an d Elon had not opened his mouth about going private, the stock would be ver y high right now and they would be able to bring in billions of new funds a ssuring their survival for a few more years. Now they have cash to last a year perhaps. They have payments of over a billion dollars they may have t o pay out. If they do and they don't raise more funding, they won't last.
Equity would have to take a huge hair-cut. They have less than 5 months to repay 1B. Reorganization before then.
investor.
positive production results from this quarter, even if not totally profitab le, the stock would still be strong.
Tesla finance has not changed much, the issues are just more apparent now. They still have to disclose a lot more for public financing.
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