I would like to add a comment:
There is not only global warming, but also the "multidecadal oscillation". That is a roughly 60-65-or-so period "flickering" of a major combination of ocean currents sometimes known as the "Conveyor Belt". (There is some notation of "multidecadal oscillation" to be noticed in specifically the Atlantic Ocean.)
The "Multidecadal Oscillation" appears to me to largely have done such:
Achieved global temperature spikes as in a notable extreme one in 1878, a pair in 1941 and 1943 with "smoothed global temperature" peaking in 1940, and the 1998 one from the record "Great El Nino of 1998".
The dips from this oscillation appear to me in "smoothed HadCRUT-3" appear to me to be those of 1910 and 1948 - although compared to
60-year-trend, I consider the 1965-1966 dip (of smoothed) to be lowpoint of "smoothed global temperature".So, now I describe how this 60-to-65-year-whatever oscillation appears to me to do:
Pre-peak 15-16 years:
High El Nino activity, with North Atlantic hurricanes being low but upswinging. Global warming trend shifts from Southern Hemisphere to Northern Hemisphere - and in previous cycles in this "phase/quadrant of cycle" the Southern Hemisphere probably actually cools. Also, from about half a decade to about 1.5 decades before the peak, USA (especially east of the Rockies) gets ferocious heatwaves. Such as the 1932-1936 ones exabecerbated by pre-1937 farming methods, and also the ones of 1988-1995 (and leading to these the ones of 1983 and 1980).
"Roughly-Between-Quadrants" in the middle of the global temperature upswing half of this cycle: Eastern USA (and even *arguably* South-Central USA) get the big blizzards and other major snowstorms. The notable exception is the post-peak one of 1888. A lot of big blizzards and other big snowstorms struck the eastern roughly 35-40% of USA from 1977 to 1996.
Before that, Post-Dip 15-16 years: Warming is more-than-average between the Tropic of Capricorn and the coast of Antarctica. It appears to me that this is from mid 1960's to late 1970's - with USA weather (or at least weather around Philadelphia) being notably mild and having less incidence of extremes from 1965 to 1975. Heck, I somewhat think that Philadelphia completely lacked official temperature below 2 F or above 99 F from 9/1 1965 to 1/1 1977 (except for one beginning-of-September heatwave). Atlantic hurricanes appear to me to have run low after 1962 until close to the 1998 peak. During the 1960's to mid 1970's, the USA's "Upper Midwest" had harsh winters.
Now for the pre-dip years, of roughly mid-1950's to mid-1960's, and projected to be the years from late 2010's to around 2030: That is a time when global warming is less and has more of its presence in the Southern Hemisphere - mainly between the Tropic of Capricorn and the coast of Antactica. That was a time with greater North Atlantic hurricane activity.
The remaining "quadrant" of that oscillation is post-peak 15-16 years: Global warming slows (or reverses when there is little trend of warming along 60-year-period), and gets more concentrated to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans. El Nino activity and eastern/central USA heatwave activity take downturns. North-Atlantic hurricane activity runs high, though only in most years. In part this is due to reduction of Atlantic-hurricane-impairing El Ninos, and in part this is due to upward global temperature anomaly concentrating towards the North Atlantic (along with the Arctic Ocean). Arctic ice meltdown progresses despite downturn in global temperature trend in 60-65 year scale. If the 1999-2013/2015 stretch has global temperature *after and excluding the 1998 spike* actually increasing, then *Be Very Afraid*!
- Don Klipstein ( snipped-for-privacy@misty.com)