OT: Omicron

This is what I mean. Only Ed knows how he gets "1/3 are Delta" from the above data. I think he did provide a link for the raw data, but it was in a form that is very hard to read or requires processing or something, I forget.

The real problem with trying to understand this stuff is there are so many reports of the same FEW facts and virtually no good references of useful data. A great example of that is worldometer where you can find lots of good data, well presented on total numbers and daily numbers, but no daily per capita data. I also can't find info on where they obtain their data, for example for Florida. I don't think Florida reports data daily, but worldometer shows daily numbers with no deaths since the 24th. NY Times shows hundreds on the days Florida reports and days with zero deaths, but an average of 56 as of yesterday. Seems Florida is reporting once a week. So how is worldometer making it look like they have daily data coming in?

If i blank out the other parts:

Let me rephase it: WHO's delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

But there are almost no sample with all of them. Instead, I see 48% with B=484E+614G and 28% with D=452R+478K+681R

WHO is right that 98% contains 614G, 478K, 452R and 681R, but they are two separate strains of virus in the USA.

Data source:

The data on this page doesn't seem to download. It says it's going to do it, but it never happens.

I don't believe in June the virus was 99% W and in July it was 99% B. Nope, didn't happen. You need to figure out what's wrong with your analysis or their data.

I do not have firm data before Sep 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Sep, It's mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it's D614G in Sep, it's likely the same in Jul and Aug. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.

The data is still in NCBI, but it's impossible to back download, unless we have access to the raw data base. As with most government program, there is no "ending date". Namely, you can't specific an ending date to download.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say. The data won't download at all. No date is specified.

I do not have firm data before Nov 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Nov, It's mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it's D614G in Nov, it's likely the same in Jul to Oct. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.

There wasn't much data before Nov 2020 anyway, even if we can download. Serious genome sequencing started near end of 2020.

You have to specify the starting date to download.

Specified date, still no file download. Typical government BS. Do it right or figure it out on your own. No info provided.

Even without that modification of behaviour (and rules) because of a rapidly growing infection with the more vigorous strain creates a situation where the less fit strain falls by the wayside. Each successive generation the fittest strain gets additional market share.

Even more so when interventions like social distancing, mask wearing, work from home and vaccination put in place to defeat the newest variant take the effective R value for the older strains below unity.

Selection pressure is now entirely focussed on ability to reproduce and transmit the disease to others. That typically means faster penetration into a cell, more rapid replication and a longer incubation time spent highly infective in nasal passages without showing any obvious symptoms.

Wild forms and D614G have all but disappeared in places where Alpha and then Delta have really taken hold. Delta AY.4.2 is now rising in the UK so it must have a reproductive advantage in our environment.

You can still get sporadic cases of the older strains re-introduced by foreign travel but there is no longer much if any community transmission. The strain of the virus with the highest success rate at reproducing quickly supplants the previous strains until a new even fitter one arises. Omicron looks like it might be just that.

This is a bit dated now but it shows how the WHO and scientists have assessed the effectiveness of vaccine induced antibodies against the viral forms up to Delta.

It's weird how the communist manifesto made some suggestions that 21st century capitalism seems to be implementing way more efficiently than the 20th century communists ever did.

"Klaus Schwab as publisher of the World Economic Forum's 2010 'Global Redesign' report postulates that a globalized world is best managed by a self-selected coalition of multinational corporations, governments (including through the UN system) and select civil society organizations (CSOs)."

As I recall Marx wrote about a "dictatorship of the proletariat", not a "dictatorship of the CEOs", or a "dictatorship of the dictatorship", lol.

Have to chuckle at people in the US remarking about photos of stores here with no product on the shelves during the pandemic "Wow, it's just like Venezuela" no, it's just like America! they can't even remember where they are, gosh sounds like a perfectly amenable people to abolish nationality in to begin with.

Anyway the global company store Amazon is having some good deals this week, better check 'em out!!!!