OT: Book "Merchants of Doubt" content

I've received - and read - my copy of the book (ISDN:

978-1-59691-610-4).

It's a historical study of a series of campaigns to persuade the American public that various scientific conclusions - about the dangers of smoking, acid-rain, the ozone hole, secondary smoking and global warming - weren't well founded. It also includes a section discussing the posthumous attack on Rachel Carson which falsely claimed that her observations about the dangers of the indiscriminate use of DDT had killed loads of people because it stopped DDT being used against malaria.

It concentrates of a group of once-emminent scientists who were active in most of the campaigns (despite the fact that they weren't expert in any of the sciences involved), and points out that their common feature is a strong belief in free-market capitalism, coupled to irrational anxieties about socialism (which they see as leading to communism).

Their objection to the science behind the campaigns to ban smoking, to fit power station smoke stacks with sulphur scrubbers, to ban chlorofluorocarbons (CF's), and to reduce the amount of CO2 being injected into the atmosphere, is what George Soros calls "free market fundamentalism" which rejects the idea of using goverment regulation to reduce "negative externalities" which is to say the damage to the rest of the world created by - say - fouling your workplace with second hand smoke, destroying boreal forests by burning sulphur-rich coal and bunker oil in your power stations, creating the ozone hole by venting CFCs to the atmosphere, and increasing global warming by burning fossil carbon and venting the CO2 produced into the atmosphere.

Their attitude is that the free market should be left to deal with this, despite the fact that it obviously won't.

Since they can't produce a rational case against regulation, they devote their energy to fighting irrational campaigns directed at devalueing the scientific evidence that would motivate the regulation, if a majority believed the evidence. They failed on smoking, the ozone hole and acid rain, but so far seem to be doing pretty on global warming - they've fooled enough of the people enough of the time.

This doesn't - directly - explain their posthumous campaign to discredit Rachel Carson, which appears to be an attack on the environmentalist community, who are more sensitve than most to "negative externalities" and traditionally inclined to campaign for government regulation to stop people pulluting the environment. The campaign against Rachel Carson happens to be particularly stupid - DDT had fallen out of favour as a defense against malaria before "Silent Spring" was published because it had stopped working, and it had stopped working because it had been used widely an indiscriminately in agriculture, breeding a generation of mosquitos who had adapted to DDT in the environment and didn't die when exposed to it.

Oddly enough, if DDT had only been used as a defense against malaria and other insect-bourne diseases, it would probably still be effective today - in that role it was only sprayed inside the houses of the people who needed to be protected, and the wider population of insects wouldn't have been exposed to enough of it to allow them to evolve resistance.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman
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What? To suggest that the American public might actually think, rather than swallow the dogma?

Gasp!!! The Horror!

That someone might actually Question The Faith!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May The Good Lord of Warmingism Save You from such HERESY! If you listen to heretics, you get BUGWORMS in your ears! And they EAT OUT YOUR BRAINS!

You Must Reject ALL IDEAS FROM HERETICS that QUESTION the ONE TRUE FAITH, because otherwise the Cooties of Eternal Damnation will eat your eyes in your sleep!

Good Luck! Rich

Reply to
Rich Grise, Professional AGW D

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The book makes it clear that the campaigns were designed to mislead the American public by presenting dishonest and misleading arguments. That isn't making them think, but rather deluding them into thinking the way the campaigners wanted them to think.

Rich does have the problem that he doesn't know enough about science to realise that it isn't a religion, and has built-in questioning of "the faith".

Something has eaten most of Rich's brain, but it seems more likely that it was recreational drugs than bugworms.

Which doesn't explain why Rich can't see that he has been suckered by denialist and pro-smoking propaganda. Ignorance an gullibility are more plausible hypotheses.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

"Dishonest and misleading" only if thwy are wrong. Warmingists are the most closed-minded of people: that assume that anyone who disagrees with their unverified models and iffy data must be stupid or evil.

Luckily, the general public, at least in the USA, isn't dumb enough to accept that sort of nonsense. Until there is better science, we deserve debate.

Except, obviously, in this case.

Rich did recently learn to TIG weld. Have you learned anything useful lately?

John

Reply to
John Larkin

0-4).

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oking,

They were - and are. You present the same arguments honestly - in the sense that you don't know enough to realise that they are rubbish - and I've explained to you why they are wrong.

who disagrees

The models aren't unverified, and the data is good and getting better all the time. This isn't to say that the models are yet good enough to make particularly precise predictions - for that they need the details of the heat transported though the oceans (by the Gulf Stream amongst many other currents) and the Argo buoy project is still collecting data

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There are apparently 3261 buoys out there ...

The models are quite good enough to tell us that anthropogenic global warming is real and progressing. The surface of the earth is now 0.9C warmer than it was a century ago and well on it's way to becoming a degree of so warmer by the end of this century.

What you need is informed debate. What you get is denialist propagandists insisting on getting "balanced" reporting on TV and in newspapers, where the half-baked rubbish being peddled by the "merchants of doubt" is presented as if it had the same validity as the scientific concensus.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Science recently published a paper "Expert Credibility in Climate Science" by William R Anderegg, James W. Prall, Jacob Harold and Stephen H Schneider in volume 107 on pages

12107-12109 (July 6, 2010) which looked at 1372 climate researchers, and found the 97% of the top researchers (top 50, top 100 top 200) were convinced by the evidence of global warming. As you progressively include resarchers who publish less and are cited less often by their peers, the percentage of those convinced falls to about 90%.

If we extend the population to include people like you, who don't even know enough to understand the pressure broadening of infra-red absortion/emission lines, the percentage convinced falls even more, which isn't exactly surprising.

There's not a climate scientist alive who wouldn't love to be the one who found the flaw in the case for anthropogenic global warming. There's nothing a scientist admires more than a hypothesis that fits the data better than the currently accepted theory, and finding one is the royal route to fame, fortune and an academic dream job.

Sadly, they've been looking for some fifty years now, and the occasional iconoclastic paper that still reaches the literature hasn't proved to be at all convincing, which hasn't stopped the denialist propaganda machine from citing them as if they'd never been shot down.

Nothing that I'd talk about without a non-disclosure agreement.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

disagrees

** It seems that a lot of the "evidence" is from thermal measurement stations in the US. But that data is totally worthless; NONE of the set-up standards, including placement, calibration or verification protocols were observed. Measuring asphalt parking lot temperature is not conducive to obtaining any meaningful data. According to independent observers, one would be pressed to find even one station that was installed according to established protocols.
Reply to
Robert Baer

who disagrees

More importantly, to get good time-series data it would have to have followed those protocols for 100 years. About the only temperature data you can trust is satellite data, and we haven't had that for long.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

smoking,

disagrees

Sounds thrilling.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

Phil Jones (the head of the CRU at the centre of Climategate) has admitted that the mediaeval warm period did exist, was probably warmer than current temperatures and the rate of change was similar to current rate of change.

Hal Lewis resignation letter from the Americal Physical Society...

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"In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work.- Hal Lewis"

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Nial

Reply to
Nial Stewart

10-4).

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And where did you find this interesting revelation? I came across it a few years ago when trolling through denialist web-sites.

What then seemed to be the raw data wasn't a comprehensive survery of every US Meteorological Service observing station, but rather a few examples of observing stations whose micro-climates had been messed up by building that had been put up after the observing station had been established. The data seemed to have been collected by a single - rather obsessive - individual, and while it fitted perfectly with demented conspiracy theory contnet of the web-site, it wasn't exactly convincing evidence of an endemic problem.

Who are your "independent observers"? Why do you think that they've had the time to visit every weather station - or even a representative sample.

In fact, the primary weather observation system in the USA is automated

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There's apparently such a station near every airport in the US as well as few spread around to fill in the gaps.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

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Alarmist claims almost certainly based on a denialist web-site - and if it was anything like the web-site that I saw a few years ago, Robert Baer has generalised a rather limited number of observations into a blanket condemnation.

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Buys Ballot started collecting good data in the Netherlands in the

1850's and "He was one of the first to see the need for international cooperation, and in 1873 became the first chairman of the International Meteorological Organization, a precursor of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)." International data collection still isn't perfectly standardised, but meteorologists seem to be pretty happy with the data they've got for the last hundred years or so.

Seafarers logs have been recording daily weather data for a lot longer than that.

Since John Larin is an ignorant "sceptic" he distrusts anything that the denialist propaganada machine has chosen to doubt, and fails to trust a lot of information that better-informed observers find reliable.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

d

And where did he "admit" this? There is a BBC radio interview where he does admit that the medieval warm period does seem to have been real in Europe, the North Atlantic, North America and parts of Asia, but he points out there's no evidence that it affected the world as a whole, and he certainly didn't make any claims about the amount or rate of warming.

The interviewer pushes him about New Zealand tree ring data which the interviewer - correctly - assumes to be available, but doesn't seem to know that the Tasmanian and New Zealand tree ring data collected so far doesn't show any evidence of a medieval warm period synchronised to the European warm period. There were warmer and cooler periods but nothing that closely matched the European excursions. Phil Jones clearly knows about this data, but equally clearly doesn't think that there is a enough of it to support any decisive conclusions

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

978-1-59691-610-4).

American

smoking,

who disagrees

Why would a 'retired' welfare queen need a NDA?

--
Politicians should only get paid if the budget is balanced, and there is
enough left over to pay them.
Reply to
Michael A. Terrell

978-1-59691-610-4).

American

smoking,

who disagrees

"the deployment of ASOS units began in 1991 and was completed in

2004."

and

"ASOS serves as a primary climatological observing network in the United States, making up the first-order network of climate stations"

which makes this data useless for quantifying trends any older than a decade maybe.

Airports are huge heat islands. And fairly recent inventions.

Look at various realtime weather station temperatures in some small area. There are lots of them on the web. Temperatures in various spots of a city or county can easily vary by 5 C at any instant. Which will you select to compare to data taken 100 years ago?

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Is the temperature in Chicago 68F? Or is it 80F?

John

Reply to
John Larkin

978-1-59691-610-4).

American

smoking,

who disagrees

So he has an excuse to say he doing something but not tell us what it is.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

978-1-59691-610-4).

American

smoking,

anyone who disagrees

He complains at least once a week that no one hires useless old bastards in Europe. The only thing he has to 'disclose' is that he's been lying all along.

--
Politicians should only get paid if the budget is balanced, and there is
enough left over to pay them.
Reply to
Michael A. Terrell

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Not Europe - just the Netherlands. And the Dutch also don't hire useful elderly peope whose parents were careful to be married to one another when their children were born.

Mike Terrell is equally unemployed, but he keeps himself busy in ways which he believes maintains his usefulness to the community. I'm a little more sceptical about what constitutes "useful".

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

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Actually, it doesn't. The ASOS stations automate measurements which were being made near airports since commercial aviation first got under way.

Whence the "near".

The ones that were set up according the the criteria Buys Ballott and his contemporaries agreed on roughly a century and a half ago?

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

978-1-59691-610-4).

American

smoking,

anyone who disagrees

You snipped the critical question because you don't want to deal with real-world, real-time data. What IS the temperature in Chicago?

John

Reply to
John Larkin

On Sun, 10 Oct 2010 16:53:39 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman wrote:>

--- But, the one who found the flaw would have to cope with the system and its agenda, which certainly isn't amenable to changing its stance because of some upstart's "opinion".

Galileo, using hard data, found the flaw in Ptolemy's thinking - which the Roman Catholic Church fell for [Ptolemy's posit] because it established the Earth as the center of the Universe, "as God intended, of course",- by espousing a heliocentric system and, for his efforts, was forced to recant his beliefs on pain of death and, not wanting to die, recanted his beliefs in public and was forced into house arrest, and silence, for the rest of his life.

Only recently has the Church admitted to its error, but by using language carefully devised to limit its liability, tried to make it look like it was God's edicts which kept it from seeing the truth in the first place.

Kind of the tail wagging the doG...

---

--- And, yet, I think the jury's still out as to whether the warming, while seeming to be real, is anthropogenic or not.

---

--- Why not?

Certainly anything you've been bound to keep secret is in the public domain and can be talked about freely.

--- JF

Reply to
John Fields

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