Keep playing with fire and you eventually get burned.
From 3/2016
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Same time period, even the sycophants wrote about it:
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A lab worker in the slipshod operation in Wuhan caught something like this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it like c razy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place.
If the idiots want to experiment with stuff like this, it should be done in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quarantine a nd testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never learn anyth ing until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
s, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place.
This is a theory? 15+/-3% of people infected with Covid-19 are asymptomatic , not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn't sup ported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspiracy theory nutters.
in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quarantine and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never learn any thing until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
There are labs that specialise on working with dangerous pathogens. Nobody bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 14-day day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies has a typ ical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a year .
As usual, Fred doesn't know what he is talking about.
his, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it li ke crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place.
ic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn't s upported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspiracy theo ry nutters.
You appear to be cognitively dyslexic in that you have the statistics rever sed.
I could care less about the actual facts of the situation. The important po int is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to avoid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in trillions of dollar s of economic damage, accompanying political destabilization, as well as a very long multi-year recovery, even the most draconian precautionary measu res are justified.
e in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quaranti ne and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never learn a nything until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
y bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 14-da y day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies has a ty pical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a yea r.
Nobody in their right mind would use that as a justification for the half-m easures in use today.
Again, your ignorance is glaring. Both of those infections are detectable b y PCR within 24 hours of exposure.
No, he doesn't have anything reversed. The asymptomatic fraction is difficult to define, and a subject of wild speculations as well as measurement.
Oh, just stop there! The pandemic, like SARS (which was successfully contained) isn't a lab product, the "worst case scenario" isn't under human control if it is a disease emerging from bats and pangolins. Lab safety is well-studied, and beyond your comprehension.
Biological lab experiments aren't unsafe; Fred Bloggs isn't a good judge on the subject.
ke this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread i t like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place .
omatic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn 't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspiracy theory nutters.
eversed.
cult to define,
You don't know anything about the subject. Even the CDC commits to stating the best estimate of the /median/ is 45%. It only takes /one/ asymptomatic infectious individual to start a pandemic in living conditions such as exis t in Wuhan. And there are plenty of examples of surveillance testing wherei n the asymptomatics were 85% or more of the sample set. The medical communi ty may be particular about pre-symptomatic versus true asymptomatic, but th e virus, for purposes of propagating the pandemic, most certainly is not. T here is no distinction to be made from the perspective of determining sprea d.
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t point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to av oid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in ..
ained) isn't
is a disease emerging
rehension.
No one said the virus was an engineered lab product. And you know so much a bout lab safety do you? Then explain this: "Two State Department cables show that American embassy officials in Beijin g made several visits to the research facility [Wuhan] and sent two officia l warnings back to Washington in early 2018 about the lab?s inadequ ate safety measures. This was at a time when researchers were conducting ri sky studies on coronaviruses from bats, The Washington Post reported, citin g intelligence sources."
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Similar near miss catastrophes have been reported numerous times at America n labs too. That makes strike two against your smug delusion of possessing any expertis e.
on the subject.
Blanket display of ignorance. Apparently you're too dumb to understand peop le don't always comply with regulators' fantasy world.
That makes three strikes. You're out. You have no idea what you're talking about, you're all pompous pretense.
this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place.
atic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspiracy th eory nutters.
ersed.
I've posted the link to the actual statistics here. You haven't.
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fection/12317254
attributes the number to a professor Paul Glasziou who published it in a pe er-reviewed journal.
You may be thinking of the people who get sick enough to need to go to hosp ital.
point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to avoi d them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in trillions of doll ars of economic damage, accompanying political destabilization, as well as a very long multi-year recovery, even the most draconian precautionary meas ures are justified.
The cry of the irrational alarmist.
one in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quaran tine and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never learn anything until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
ody bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 14- day day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies has a typical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a y ear.
-measures in use today.
As if you'd know about what people in their right mind would do.
by PCR within 24 hours of exposure.
You were talking about symptoms, not PCR detection
ke this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread i t like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a place .
omatic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn 't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspiracy theory nutters.
eversed.
infection/12317254
Don't link me anything written by a woman! Know how I can tell? Look at the superfluous human interest crap the idiot crowds into her simple-minded, s tupid, uninformed p.o.s. of an article. It's time wasting crap.
I already linked one research paper and the CDC official position on the su bject. The median is 45%. Any particular cluster can be all over the map wi th 85% cropping up quite frequently.
peer-reviewed journal.
spital.
t point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to av oid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in trillions of do llars of economic damage, accompanying political destabilization, as well a s a very long multi-year recovery, even the most draconian precautionary me asures are justified.
You're as bad as the fools who think the virus is a hoax and no worse than the flu.
done in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quar antine and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never lea rn anything until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
obody bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 1
4-day day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies has a typical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a year.
lf-measures in use today.
I know what they should do, and listening to your kind is off the table.
le by PCR within 24 hours of exposure.
I said quarantine and testing. Testing can mean whatever test or tests is/a re appropriate to the threat. You missed it because you have holes in your remnant of a brain.
like this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a pla ce.
ptomatic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero i sn't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspirac y theory nutters.
reversed.
ficult to define,
A claim that Fred is fond of making. He usually follows it up by demonstrat ing that he knows even less than the person he is criticising.
It only takes /one/ asymptomatic infectious individual to start a pandemic in living conditions such as exist in Wuhan. And there are plenty of examp les of surveillance testing wherein the asymptomatics were 85% or more of t he sample set.
There's a distinction between asymptomatic - never exhibits symptoms - and pre-symptomatic - hadn't shown symptoms before being tested.
asymptomatic, but the virus, for purposes of propagating the pandemic, mos t certainly is not. There is no distinction to be made from the perspective of determining spread.
That paper makes a lot of fuss about cruise ships where the passengers are more likely to get infected via the intestinal tract than the respiratory s ystem. If your airways don't get infected, you are much less likely to show the usual symptoms of Covid-19. I've posted about this.
ant point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to avoid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in ..
ntained) isn't
t is a disease emerging
mprehension.
about lab safety do you? Then explain this:
ing made several visits to the research facility [Wuhan] and sent two offic ial warnings back to Washington in early 2018 about the lab?s inade quate safety measures. This was at a time when researchers were conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats, The Washington Post reported, cit ing intelligence sources."
can labs too.
ise.
Human failure is always with us. Smallpox hasn't escaped from any of the la bs that still keep stocks of it.
There is defense in depth, but Fred Bloggs doesn't know enough to be aware of this. Visitors to other people's labs do have a tendency to notice that the place they visit doesn't run thing the way they do, and imagine that th eir own way of doing things is the only way that could possibly work.
e on the subject.
ople don't always comply with regulators' fantasy world.
The question is which regulator is living in a fantasy world. Fred lives in fantasy world where his own rather limited perceptions are 100% reliable.
g about, you're all pompous pretense.
Fred at it again. He's not pretending to think that he knows more than ever ybody else - it's a confidently held delusion.
like this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spread it like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a pla ce.
ptomatic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero i sn't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspirac y theory nutters.
reversed.
9-infection/12317254
he superfluous human interest crap the idiot crowds into her simple-minded, stupid, uninformed p.o.s. of an article. It's time wasting crap.
It's main stream media news.
subject. The median is 45%. Any particular cluster can be all over the map with 85% cropping up quite frequently.
Cruise ships, where infection by ingestion rather than by inhalation is rat her more common. It's sloppy work.
a peer-reviewed journal.
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This is the pre-print of the paper. It's number is 17+/-3%. It hadn't been peer-reviewed at that point.
hospital.
ant point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions to avoid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in trillions of dollars of economic damage, accompanying political destabilization, as well as a very long multi-year recovery, even the most draconian precautionary measures are justified.
n the flu.
A bizarre claim.
be done in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day qu arantine and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never l earn anything until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
Nobody bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 14-day day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies ha s a typical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a year.
half-measures in use today.
You are irrationally convinced of this, which makes you a dubious source of advice.
able by PCR within 24 hours of exposure.
/are appropriate to the threat. You missed it because you have holes in you r remnant of a brain.
You've got to see symptoms before you can see a need for quarantine or test ing. You can't do PCR tests to detect unknown viruses. You have to identify the virus and sequence it before a PCR test can tell you anything useful.
Even your remnant of brain should have been able to work that out.
g like this, was probably asymptomatic, as 85% of people are, and then spre ad it like crazy in that overpopulated super high population density of a p lace.
ymptomatic, not 85%, and the proposition that a lab worker was patient zero isn't supported by any evidence at all - though it is popular with conspir acy theory nutters.
cs reversed.
-19-infection/12317254
the superfluous human interest crap the idiot crowds into her simple-minde d, stupid, uninformed p.o.s. of an article. It's time wasting crap.
e subject. The median is 45%. Any particular cluster can be all over the ma p with 85% cropping up quite frequently.
ather more common. It's sloppy work.
n a peer-reviewed journal.
ml
n peer-reviewed at that point.
o hospital.
rtant point is to understand the risks, and taking reasonable precautions t o avoid them. Seeing as how a worst case scenario can result in trillions o f dollars of economic damage, accompanying political destabilization, as we ll as a very long multi-year recovery, even the most draconian precautionar y measures are justified.
han the flu.
d be done in a geographically isolated, remote area, with mandatory 14-day quarantine and testing of everyone going in and out. As usual, people never learn anything until a hellacious catastrophe happens.
s. Nobody bothers putting them in geographically isolated remote areas, and a 14-day day quarantine period wouldn't help with AIDS or rabies - rabies has a typical incubation period of two to three months, and it can stretch to a year.
e half-measures in use today.
.
of advice.
ctable by PCR within 24 hours of exposure.
is/are appropriate to the threat. You missed it because you have holes in y our remnant of a brain.
sting. You can't do PCR tests to detect unknown viruses. You have to identi fy the virus and sequence it before a PCR test can tell you anything useful .
I'll address this bit of idiocy as your other statements are even more obvi ously idiotic. Traditional quarantine is conducted to wait out a known incubation period s o that symptoms can develop, it is not restricted to people already exhibit ing systems. It's pretty low tech, but an effective technique from days of old when they didn't have much in the way of diagnostics. The laboratory knows what viruses are being worked on and therefore likely to infect its workers. They can run PCRs for those viruses. In anticipation of novel mutants, they can even run a partial sequence PCR to detect a vir us from the virus family that may not be an exact sequence of one they know about. Methods have/are being developed to use PCR to fish out completely novel viruses present in blood samples.
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Looks like another one of your pretenses of expertise has been deflated. Pu t on your dunce cap and go sit in the corner with whit3rd.
Utterly ridiculous. The laboratory precautions against infection are completely adequate, and there was never an infected worker due to the tiny, carefully tended laboratory samples at Wuhan. Samples don't cough and create aerosols. Samples don't shake your hands. The running of PCR is a bit of unnecessary overhead as regards laboratory workers, UNLESS there has been some accident.
No accident, no need to do a test.
Wuhan, population 8 million, isn't just a laboratory site; it's a transportation hub, and the virus had an entry SOMEWHERE in that vicinity. Not a laboratory.
ely to infect its workers. They can run PCRs for those viruses. In anticipa tion of novel mutants, they can ...
letely adequate,
laboratory
regards
rtation
ory.
Wuhan did admit to keeping live strains of coronavirus. They claim they wer e not SARS-CoV-2, but what they really mean is as far as they know.
You obviously know very little about the situation, it's not publicized bec ause it's scandalous.
"In 2014, as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) did cleanup for a plann ed move to a new office, hundreds of unclaimed vials of virus samples were found in a cardboard box in the corner of a cold storage room. Six of them, it turned out, were vials of smallpox. No one had been keeping track of th em; no one knew they were there. They may have been there since the 1960s."
Regulations of any stripe cannot anticipate how wrong things can go either accidently or intentionally.
Hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of near miss global pandemic incidents ...as far as anyone knows.
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pe-lab-smallpox-bird-flu
A Wuhan worker caught the disease somehow and spread it. PCRs are cheap, an d it gives testing labs business.
ere not SARS-CoV-2, but what they really mean is as far as they know.
Laboratories certainly know their own inventories.
ecause it's scandalous.
False. It's not publicized because it's a big world, with lots of rumors , mostly false, always morphing. The scandal is that the rumors get too much attention. Your situation awarene ss is nil, you've got your ear to the rumor mill.
nned move to a new office, hundreds of unclaimed vials of virus samples wer e found in a cardboard box in the corner of a cold storage room. Six of the m, it turned out, were vials of smallpox. No one had been keeping track of them; no one knew they were there. They may have been there since the 1960s ."
Exactly my point; no one missed them, BUT no one misplaced them, either; th ey were not removed from cold storage, they were not infecting workers, and were properly identified during cleanu p. Mainly, double-checking is good enough, but there was a triple check, just in case. That was six years ago, it's not as if the triple-check catches things every week.
There's absolutely no reason to believe that disease patient zero caught in Wuhan came from the Wuhan lab. Most of the early cases were associated wit h the Wuhan wet-market, which offers a more plausible origin for the virus.
The polymerase chain reaction test isn't all that cheap, and it does depend on knowing the genome of the virus being tested for - which didn't happen until more than a month after the first recognised Covid-19 victim had been admitted to hospital on the 1st December 2019
"On 10 January 2020, the first novel coronavirus genome sequence was made p ublicly available . The sequence was deposited in the GenBank database (acc ession number MN908947) and uploaded to the Global Initiative on Sharing Al l Influenza Data (GISAID)."
For a lot of that month all that anybody knew was that there were an increa sing number of odd pneumonia cases presenting to hospitals in Wuhan.
Fred's grasp of reality is weak. His appreciation of the defects in his own expertise is even weaker.
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