Boris's ICU. (...which was the original thrust of the reply)
?More ventilators!? cried the journalists on Twitter. ? ??Yes, more ventilators!? replied the politicians. ?Where are the venti lators?? demanded the journalists, now screaming on television. ?Yes, even more!? replied the government, somewhat nonsensically.
I am a critical care physician, specializing in the use of such machines. I?m flattered by all the attention our tools are receivin g. But I fear the current clamor reminds me of nothing so much as the panic buyers of toilet-paper stampeding over each other in early March. When the history of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western world is written, I do not believe ?massive ramp-up of ventilator manufacturing,? will be credited with our deliverance.
...[I]n the case of COVID-19, the preliminary outcome data is rather dismal. On Monday, the New England Journal of Medicine published a case series of very ill COVID-19 patients in Seattle with data up to March 23: of the 20 patients who went on a ventilator, only four had so far escaped the hospital alive. Nine had died. Three remained in suspended animation, going on three or four weeks of ventilation. Four escaped the ventilator but remained in hospital.
...To put it simply, we do not know how many lives ventilators could or will save. It seems that at least two-thirds of attempts to stave off death with their use will fail in the short term. Of the remaining third, we do not know how many will be successful in the medium or long term."
Cheers, James Arthur