Black friday shopping

Oh, and people were using cash... Not credit.

Steve

I went to the local Target, HomeDespot, and Lowes late this afternoon. The stores were all but empty. Of course this was a special case of

I lived in Kent two years ago. Though we drove to the Chappel Hill Mall from the other direction I don't remember it being all that bad. When it snowed it was another story. They don't take care of those hills very well. 18" was a disaster for that area (I had to drive back from Milwaukee in it).

I overheard the owner of a Hallmark store here talking about her business. She was really scared that she had under-ordered for the season, based on (very) early sales. Evidently she had to order everything last March, when the cash flow was *really* bad and it's picked up since. Watch the published numbers, though. They don't include gift cards and many expect that part of the business to be way up.

That's a two-edged sword.

John

Yes, I read Will yesterday and this and that was a particularly interesting article. However, I was specifically referring to the effect of people suddenly saving rather than spending. Saving has gone through the roof over the last year and that has other consequences. Large d$/dt, either sign, can have severe consequences.

I went to Bestbuy a day before Thanksgiving. I had been there earlier this month. The thing I noticed was some stock (of the better products) was low. The more intelligent people were already out shopping, the sales started this week. There was only one left of what I was looking for. I wasn?t too impressed with the Black friday door busters.

Cheers

I expect to do all my shopping via the web. I absolutely despise crowds. ...Jim Thompson

Same here. I did go to a store on black Friday once in my life and that will have been the last time. Arrived at 8:00am, inquiring about a Toshiba laptop that was prominently advertized in their newspaper ad and it didn't say limited qty. The clerk almost burst into laughter, said they had only two or three anyhow and that they were gone milliseconds after they opened a couple hours earlier. That was it, for me.

It's great. We've got to stop living beyond our means. Of course, it would be good if the folks on the hill also understood that concept.

Not bad, and he makes good points... but may not be aware that there are means of trying to close the gap between "money spent" and "perceived value by the recipient." Amazon (and other retailers') "wish lists" system is one... we'll be looking forward to you posting yours, John. :-)

"Perceived value by the recipient" is also a complex variable -- many good gifts are things the recipient wouldn't have bought themselves because the value wasn't obvious ("face value"), but after they have a chance to use it for awhile, they begin to value it more than the money spent. Electronics is often a good example here -- think of how many grandparents received, e.g., computers or cell phones from their kids and now love the Internet or texting or whatever, even though they'd have initially never purchased such items themselves. Of course, it works in reverse too -- people finding out that that one special gift they really wanted really isn't all that great overall. I'm sure most people could remember a few childhood gifts that fall into that category, and I suppose as adults exercise machines might be one of the biggies!

---Joel

Yes, less is better, but large d$/dt excursions are always a problem.

Well, houses no longer double as ATM machines and what goes up must come down. I am more concerned about things like the $/Euro ratio and stuff like that. That's not healthy at all.

... which resulted in a $500 exercise bike in our basement that we bought for $60, barely used. Entertainment speakers, fan, li'l computer, big adjustable seat, rock-solid gym club style frame, the whole works.

I think Steve's comment, "and people were using cash," is important to note here.

I just spoke with my brother who heads up a couple of divisions at one of the very largest mail order businesses in the US. A type of business that almost exclusively depends upon credit cards. He also said that one of the more pronounced shifts they've seen in their own business is the use of cash rather than credit. And his opinion is that this means selling product is MUCH HARDER. People see the money leaving their hands and feel it, viscerally. As a result, consumers think more and work a LOT HARDER before spending/buying. Which means, he says, he has to work a lot harder to earn their money.

As Joerg says, it's not a bad practice. In many ways it's too bad that many of us strayed too far from rationality over the last few decades. This 'correction' is probably for the longer term good.

But putting my brother's national sales experiences together with my own talking with people in my local community here (I'm an elected official who enjoys talking with neighbors about their interests and concerns), there is NO question in my mind that people have truly changed the way each day is run. They've made life-changes. Not mere adjustments here and there. Life-changes. Things that will probably never fully return to "business as usual." Or, at least, not for a decade or more. These are things like shifting to different meals at home. Very profound changes at a deep level. They tell me as much.

It will be some time -- many years, if ever -- that they will undo it. Partly, because they tell me they LIKE the chnages they've made. Many feel healthier and in odd ways happier, too. Almost like they are proud, in a way. That won't easily change back.

Jon

Better a $60 clothes rack than a $500 clothes rack. :-)

Heck, you can probably re-sell it for, say, $40... 'tis the season, Craigslist is your friend!

It is if you went into Euro-denominated securities at the right time. I made out like a bandit.

Jon

And look what happens when they do; both up and down.

No, but it's really the change that's dangerous.

Yes, the reports are that consumer debt is going down.

Yes, I use credit cards for Internet purchases but they're paid each month. I keep track (in my head) of what I've spent for the month and when the bill comes it's (well the previous one - I like the float) paid.

It's certainly good in the long term. It could get very bumpy in the short term. Like I said, the d$/dt is the issue for the short term.

Sure. The threat of being in $50K debt (listen to Dave Ramsey some time) and no job will tend to awaken many.

The Great Depression changed a whole generation. That experience is largely gone now. Some of us were children of those people, though.

But we are actually using it :-)