The CDC says vaccine protection is tumbling for older Americans, though they still work very well for younger people (2023 Update)

75yo seems to be the knee beyond which prevention of hospitalization drops more or less precipitously. +65yo is a gray area.

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Messy study didn't delineate which mutations were making people ill.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs
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88% of the new cases have the E484Q and D614G mutations.

Sep 2021 (35099 samples) __USA____(35099)_|___2%___1%___2%__89%___2%___1%__92%___2%_|__0%__0%__2%_88%__1%__1%__8% __USA/NY_(__692)_|___0%___0%___1%__96%___1%___1%__96%___1%_|__0%__0%__1%_94%__0%__1%__4% __USA/NJ_(__906)_|___1%___1%___2%__94%___2%___1%__96%___2%_|__0%__0%__1%_93%__1%__1%__4% __USA/PA_(__447)_|___0%___0%___0%__97%___0%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__0%__1%_97%__0%__0%__2% __USA/MI_(__208)_|___0%___0%___2%__96%___1%___0%__96%___1%_|__0%__0%__0%_95%__0%__0%__4% __USA/FL_(_7163)_|___3%___3%___4%__89%___4%___1%__93%___4%_|__0%__0%__2%_88%__3%__1%__5% __USA/TX_(_3812)_|___1%___1%___2%__91%___2%___1%__94%___2%_|__0%__0%__2%_90%__1%__0%__6% __USA/AZ_(__496)_|___1%___0%___1%__94%___1%___1%__97%___1%_|__0%__0%__1%_94%__0%__1%__3% __USA/NV_(__455)_|___1%___0%___0%__95%___0%___0%__95%___2%_|__0%__0%__1%_94%__0%__0%__4% __USA/WA_(__972)_|___1%___1%___2%__81%___2%___1%__92%___2%_|__0%__0%_10%_79%__1%__1%__9% __USA/CA_(_7936)_|___1%___1%___1%__89%___2%___1%__92%___3%_|__0%__0%__2%_88%__1%__1%__8% __/CA-LA_(___78)_|__10%__10%__12%__58%__13%___1%__78%__12%_|__0%__1%_10%_58%_10%__1%_19% _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+614T+681R_E=452R+570D_O=Other

Reply to
Ed Lee

They don't really need to.

Alpha and earlier strains were quite tame when compared to Delta.

Delta is endemic in both the USA and UK now and is twice as likely to infect you and once infected twice as likely to put you in hospital.

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UK is planning a booster shot for those over 65? (age still TBD) and also with weakened immune systems of any age.

Unclear yet whether it will be a homogeneous shot of AZ for most or a heterogeneous third jab of Pfizer after two of AZ for most people (or possibly vice versa for those elderly people who got Pfizer). It may only be used for the most vulnerable rather than blanket coverage.

UK research seems to suggest that a third jab of the AZ vaccine is not as effective as a third jab of the mRNA vaccines. But data from Israel tends to suggest that Delta has somehow exploited a weak spot in the Pfizer vaccine as used exclusively in their population. They have accidentally made a petri dish for vaccine escape strains to evolve.

US is also in danger of making the same mistake because of the high proportion of superstitious vaccine refuseniks over there and having so many people with only a partial single dose vaccination (which is no protection at all against catching Delta).

Reply to
Martin Brown

And 10-11 times more likely to kill you (if unvaxed).

I believe US has already put in place mechanisms to allow folks to "self-certify" their *need* for a booster.

It's only a matter of time before the US is *forced* to release the secret studies that *prove* that a "Freedom Card" ($200 counterfeit vaccination card), coupled with daily doses of Ivermectin is even *more* effective at preventing infection than those silly vaccines! Note that the vaccines are FREE because they don't work as good as the Freedom Card regimen!

Folks are currently at work printing Freedom BOOSTER Cards -- projected to sell for $100 -- to ensure prolonged protection in spite of the current outbreak.

And, if you act now, you can get a SECOND card, absolutely free (just add separate shipping and handling) if you mention code "WHATANIDIOT"!

Operators are standing by...

Reply to
Don Y

There's much more to it than that. There is the important issue of exposure level to the virus. Because people infected with Delta have 1000x the viral load, they're more likely to expose others to a very large number of virus particles. You can have a superhuman immunity and be triply vaccinated with the best vaccine available, and you're not going to survive an extremely large level of exposure to the virus. There's going to be too much of it in your lungs and nasal passages or whatever for your antibody levels to clear, and it's going to start infecting cells. This is what happened in Israel, they know this now. The situation is worse for older because they have less antibodies and are therefore susceptible to infection from a lesser exposure level. If you mask up and distance, then your chances of being subjected to an exposure level that your immunity can't handle and becomes an infection are reduced to nothing.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

Exactly. A single-target attack on a virus is relatively easy to evolve around.

The big reason that this is such a nasty virus is that it didn't evolve naturally and incrementally like most do. It has no known origin and no obvious ancestors; it popped into existance without warning. Our collective immune systems were taken by assault.

(This is consistent with it being manufactured, not evolved.)

Delta and other variants are regressing towards the usual, natural, incremental path of viruses.

Reply to
jlarkin

Not really. The human immune system is also mixing up the genetics used to produce the antibodies, so they're evolving too. The "single" target is the viral surface protein essential for cell fusion/infection. That's pretty much it for targets without risking antibody disease enhancement.

The new C1.2 has 42x the mutation rate. It was spawned in South Africa among a large unvaccinated population. It is the large unvaccinated populations that are the true petri dish of mutations. Get a clue.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

No, not true; exactly backward. The single-target approach allows you to PICK THE TARGET so that mutations of decorative nucleic acids aren't enough to dodge the protective effect. Our technology is able to identify the vital parts of the virus rather than target those parts that are accessories to be swapped casually.

Species have gone extinct because they couldn't evolve to tolerate stone spearheads. Our ancestors aimed those spearheads. We can still do that.

Reply to
whit3rd

I think that the criterion for Project Warp Speed was "pick anything that looks like it might work."

The reduced effectiveness of current vaccines against mutants suggest that the targets weren't picked so well.

Some day maybe. Most medical research is still more like shotguns.

Reply to
jlarkin

Hmm a month ago that was 30-40 times. I am sensing a trend here. Oh well.... If only the unvaxxed would take their vaccine then the vaccinated people would have vaccines that worked as designed.

Reply to
Brent Locher

Project warp speed turned into ... deny anything that might work except for some "vaccine " that required rewriting the definition of what a vaccine is and then force everyone to take it or else you get locked out of your job. What a great country we live in!

Reply to
Brent Locher

The builders of vaccines weren't limited by a political imperative that came late in the game. The vaccine technology is sound.

Nonsense. The vaccinated have much lower susceptibility to all the variants, there's no evidence of mutants having any general 'vaccine resistance', though there's lots of vaccines out there, and results vary. I was specifically referring to the RNA vaccines, maybe the new DNA type also.

That 'some day' was years ago. The lame 'most medical research' label, and the shotgun analogy, are just bafflegab.

Reply to
whit3rd

New therapeutics are being used. Did you think of that? The vaccines are very effective against the existing variants The fatalities among the vaccinated are very old people, median age of 80, and people with serious health conditions such as immunocompromised people. You can be proud of coming across like an ignorant punk.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

The vaccines mostly work.

Reply to
jlarkin

Those therapeutics just as effectively (or not) for vaccinated and un vaccinated....did you think of that?

Fantastic, then quit being obsessed with forcing everyone to take a vaccine they do not want (My body my choice- -right?)

I am a punk because I cannot shake the absurd outrage that your vaccine will not work if I do not take my vaccine. And to prove it lets fire all the people who refuse the vaccine. I have not told anyone what to do other than to stop embracing the mind set that leads to fascism.

Reply to
Brent Locher

Ok, let's cut through the rhetoric and discuss one simple issue. You characterize the idea of everyone getting the vaccine as "your vaccine will not work if I do not take my vaccine". Let's analyze why that is not the issue anyone other than you is discussing.

The virus is infecting many more unvaccinated people than vaccinated people. Do you disagree with that?

So in areas of the world where the vaccination rate is not high enough, the virus is infecting a lot more people. Do you disagree with that?

If the vaccination rate is high enough the rate of infection can be brought to very low numbers. Do you disagree with that?

Reply to
Rick C

Brent Locher snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com> wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

We're going to take you away on the thin ice of your mind 'cause that stupid shit won't play

He hey he hey he hey hey

Your mask is in the gutter and your vaccine is in the sink.

Time to track you down and slam your ass into the clink!

Reply to
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno

Pfizer didn't take a penny of their development money. Warp Speed did not contribute to the development of their vaccine. They didn't need the hassle of dealing with the low caliber military management Trump appointed there.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

I see that you got yours...

Reply to
Flyguy

Brent Locher has this weird idea that the effectiveness of vaccination for one individual depends on whether other people have been vaccinated.

He seems to have latched onto the concept of herd immunity without realising how it works. In particular he has missed the point that herd immunity mainly protects people who haven't been vaccinated, who are free riding on the majority who have been vaccinated.

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Reply to
Anthony William Sloman

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