Re: PCR cycle count

>If a person is infectuous for 10 days, and 7.5% of the population is >infected at any time, in 130 days everyone will have had it. So it >follows that everyone has had it by now.

Thereby proving Trump was right all along. :-)

Reply to
Cursitor Doom
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Or maybe everybody has been wrong all along.

About a year into this epidemic, the nonsense level is still pinning the needle.

Reply to
John Larkin

Oh well. Things could be worse. You could be in LA.

Reply to
Cursitor Doom

For Cursitor Doom's idea of proof.

The new cases in one day in the US peaked at 237,372 on the 4th December and is 167,854 today. Herd immunity doesn't seem to have set in yet.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

John Larkin and Cursitor Doom regard any information they don't like as nonsense, and accept all kinds of nonsense as gospel truth because they happen to like the message.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

Good point.

Either LA.

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John Larkin      Highland Technology, Inc 

The best designs are necessarily accidental.
Reply to
jlarkin

Including John Larkin, as he posted the above?

Reply to
whit3rd

OTOH it is known from common cold virus experimental research that you can catch exactly the same strain of it about a year later. Antibodies are certainly not the whole story but the rather transient nature of coronavirus antibodies does make things a little more difficult.

Subsequent infections may not be quite so severe but they are still active infections capable of transmission to others which is not ideal.

The only viruses that we have to mount a defence to are those that can actually penetrate human cells. The innate immune response using interferons can take down most of what we are exposed to but the bigger challenge is when something actually gets through. That is why it typically takes a few thousand virus particles at once for one of them to reach a cell nucleus and deliver their hostile RNA payload.

One thing that will come out of this pandemic is a much better understanding of quite how finely balanced the various components of the immune system actually are when faced with a novel infection. It seems that a lot of the people who get a really bad reaction have minor genetic defects in the interferon creation or cytokine inflammation response that lets the virus get too much of a head start. Then the immune response overshoots and damages internal organs as well.

The fact that Covid starves the brain of oxygen may well explain poor decision making by some infected people like MPs and advisers who travelled the length of the country whilst infected. The virus may well be modifying behaviour to be more risky when infected enhancing transmission. The infamous Barnard Castle eyetest for instance.

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Regards, 
Martin Brown
Reply to
Martin Brown

It's not at all clear that it is the exact same strain at all. The cold virus travels around the world, and while in the vast Chinese countryside is remixed and evolved a bit, I think in swine.

But anyway, it's a year later.

Yes.

All true, but I don't see how this changes anything.

Could be.

Well, I like that theory, but more for political humor than medical reasons.

I always thought the cause to be a dread somatic mutation that caused brain to turn into bone. Well, maybe partly heritable, because it does seem to run true in some political families.

Joe Gwinn

Reply to
Joe Gwinn

It was in the case of the cold research centre experiments. They infected a bunch of people with a coronavirus one year and twelve months later had the same people in and tried to infect them with the very same virus. Coronaviruses are actually comparatively stable in nature anyway unlike flu and rhinoviruses which have dodgier self replication.

I know I have previously posted the URL for this paper either here or in uk.moderated.legal but I cannot at the moment relocate it.

There are so many things that count as "cold virus" all independent of each other but causing the same symptoms. The vast majority (>50%) are rhinoviruses but a few others also.

We must hope to buy at least 6 months of strong Covid immunity after vaccination if the virus is to be brought properly under control.

UK has just lost control in London now much to Tier 3 with much gnashing of teeth from the political classes. They didn't think twice about plunging most of the north into lockdown though. It started to look very fishy when London was in Tier 2 despite having over 2x the infection rates of the other cities that were put in Tier 3.

Even today the government is threatening legal action against London schools that want to send secondary school pupils (nexus of the rising infection) home early for Xmas to try and halt the very rapid spread.

London is presently on an exponential growth doubling every 7 days!

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Regards, 
Martin Brown
Reply to
Martin Brown

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