OT: Tesla escaped death another year

Right, I mean in the early 21st century it doesn't matter, people will buy high-priced vehicles even if they don't really have the money to do so, if that makes up the bulk of what's available and they're coerced properly with marketing. They will have no choice. What are they gonna do, walk? Drive a Prius in Texas?

Well where I'm going is far from auto manufacturers having some big "plan", "green" or otherwise for personal-transport-for-everyone in the

21st century, there is no plan. Even Tesla doesn't really have a plan other than to provide Superchargers as an exclusive service for their well-to-do buyers.

Or rather, I think the plan such as it is, is that for many people the era of owning a personal automobile is coming to an end. From an economic standpoint EVs have no future among the 50% of Americans with per capita household incomes under 31k. The future for them is not electric cars it's the bicycle. The auto industry will bail out on them once they're fully tapped out and their credit's no good anymore.

Everything looking great and people buying large vehicles in their millions on credit is about how you would expect things to look right before the end, yeah.

Bob Lutz is correct I think, if not the bicycle "transportation as a service" will not end the automotive industry entirely, but a large portion of it.

Personal automobiles will become like powerboats and personal aircraft, the mostly exclusive playthings of the wealthy.

I think this future will happen sooner than most expect.

A loophole is made (for a firing position) so you have a shot. For a new industry to start up, to have a shot, Congress provided that loophole so that Elon Musk could do... exactly what he did.

It's a mechanism that has been used before, and will be again, because it works.

The future is short range EVs. Since batteries are so expensive, 50 miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

meet an average fuel economy across their entire fleet sold, so if they wan t to sell gas-guzzling luxury cars, they have to offset them with small fue l efficient cars

meaning vehicles are

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In the real world economics and utility have more to do with demand than does marketing. That's why the Japanese grew so well in the 70s and 80s, g ood mileage and high quality. The "marketing" had to adapt rather than the "market". Remember the old car commercial, Volvo perhaps, in an auditoriu m where the speaker starts chanting, "quality quality quality" and the audi ence of suits start chanting with him... The commercial goes on to indicat e they do something more for quality. I tried to find a link, but it seems to be pre-Internet.

their SUVs and mini-vans and they bought econoboxes.

while listening to marketing. Then there are times when people listen to their wallet and lifestyles and adjust the course of auto design.

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are not economy cars. That they are the most popular vehicle largely has to do with the fact that it isn't one vehicle, rather it is a wide range in cluding a standard full size pickup as well as the F-350 which is capable o f pulling very large loads up to 20,000 lbs!

US economy is good, gas prices are low and people are buying large vehicles . That is exactly what I said. At times people buy large and so are subje ct to marketing whims. Other times they buy budget and economy and the mar keting had better address that or they will buy someone else's cars.

The point is that America is a very unequal society. The average income has gone up, but the median income has stagnated.

Apparently people getting incomes in the top 1% of the range are getting ri cher, and the rest of population aren't. The 99% aren't getting noticeably poorer either - though getting a tertiary education can now saddle you will a large debt, which didn't used to be the case.

Other advanced industrial countries aren't as bad - they are more unequal t han they used to be, but it's nowhere near as dramatic.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

s EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the lo ng range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

I know someone with a short range EV. He spends a lot of time here complai ning about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive charg ers on his longer trips.

No, there is little point in a car with only a 50 mile range. People will buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven more than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

Batteries are not cheap, but the cost will be dropping. There are a very f ew people who will buy such limited vehicles. But mainstream will want som ething a bit more practical, like 100 mile or 150 mile range. The Nissan L eaf shows such vehicles are not completely impractical until recently being the highest selling EV in the US. But that's all early adopters and neith er the Leaf nor the Tesla model 3 accurately reflect what will be mainstrea m in 10 years as the wider public are buying EVs en masse. I don't really know what EV configuration will be the ultimate winner. I just know it wil l be an EV.

Meanwhile Bolt sales continue to drop. I'm a bit surprised. I test drove a Bolt and it's not a bad car... at all. With a 200 mile range it's at the top end of your limited range EV. The model 3 is just too much competitio n for it. That and GM just can't match Tesla in imagination. The Bolt is very much a Chevy and will always be one.

--

  Rick C. 

  --+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  --+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

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les EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

aining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive cha rgers on his longer trips.

Yes, i know him too.

l buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven mor e than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

I drive more than 50 miles with the Leaf, and charging several time a day. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. It's p erfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I wou ld rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric bike.

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miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than th e long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

plaining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive c hargers on his longer trips.

ill buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven m ore than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. It's perfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I w ould rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric bike .

Should do this with the Leaf, not Tesla:

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t 0 miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

omplaining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive chargers on his longer trips.

will buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven more than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

ay. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. It 's perfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I would rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric bi ke.

brist/

Yes, doing that to a Tesla is a crime against man and nature. Doing it to a Leaf is just stupid. lol

What is the point? There are plenty of hybrids out there. If you want a h ybrid just buy a hybrid!!!

--

  Rick C. 

  -+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  -+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Check out this mystery-meat Mitsubihsi on Copart:

Clean title, the docs claim "NORMAL WEAR"

I wonder if it has some bad range degradation and someone traded it in. Or could have a blown charge controller or drive motor or...who knows!

Though in theory I've read the battery warranty on those was extended to

10 years/100k miles...

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miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than t he long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

omplaining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive chargers on his longer trips.

will buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven more than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

day. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. I t's perfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I would rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric b ike.

-obrist/

This car is 8 years old. With a 60 mile range it was likely charged at lea st every other day which mean 150 times a year or so. Times 8 that's over

1000 charges so the battery is probably still good, but starting to show so me range deterioration, maybe 10-15%.

That's one of the big advantages of a larger battery. Batteries wear mostl y from cycling. A small battery that needs two or three times as much char ging will wear two or three times faster. It's no different than using an undersized engine. China had a program where they encouraged everyone to t ravel with bigger loads to accomplish more with less. The result was vehic les broke down faster and the program was halted.

--

  Rick C. 

  -++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  -++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I'd bid on it I could use a spare EV and Providence RI is about 2 mile wide you can do a lot with even a 60 mile range. except there's no way to confirm it doesn't have some serious mechanical problem or other serious fault besides any battery wear. No pictures of it powered up.

Ahh, I hate prudence.

With a clean title and working condition it's probably worth about 5 grand so maybe a good project for somebody but Copart is a notorious den of scam artists

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t 50 miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

complaining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensi ve chargers on his longer trips.

le will buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driv en more than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

a day. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. It's perfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I would rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric bike.

on-obrist/

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least every other day which mean 150 times a year or so. Times 8 that's o ver 1000 charges so the battery is probably still good, but starting to sho w some range deterioration, maybe 10-15%.

ostly from cycling. A small battery that needs two or three times as much charging will wear two or three times faster. It's no different than using an undersized engine. China had a program where they encouraged everyone to travel with bigger loads to accomplish more with less. The result was v ehicles broke down faster and the program was halted.

Good thing you are in Providence then.

--

  Rick C. 

  +-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  +-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

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50 miles EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more tha n the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

complaining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensi ve chargers on his longer trips.

le will buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driv en more than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

day. It's not a problem when there are enough charging stations around. It's perfectly fine with the city. The point is to compare it to bicycle. I would rather keep the Leaf than downgrading to a bicycle, even electric bike.

-obrist/

o a Leaf is just stupid. lol

Doing it to a Leaf is lesser of two evils, since the Leaf batteries deterio rate faster than Tesla. Just wondering what they are going to do with the Tesla batteries. I don't think they can buy a Tesla without the batteries anyway.

One thing they point out is that the Tesla cells packs 2x to 3x more energy than regular 18650, but need liquid cooling and heavy metal to protect the m. So, passive cooling packs might be lighter overall.

I have removable batteries with passive cooling. They takes up more space, but lighter.

Where do you keep the batteries in the car??? Are they wired into the car or are you running an inverter to charge the car off of 120VAC?

I really have no idea why you do the things you do. My friends think I do strange things. I should let them meet you.

--

  Rick C. 

  +-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  +-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Wired into 12V to reduce load on the DC buck regulator, inverted to run laptop and other stuffs, and charge the main batteries in emergency.

Strange to have additional 12V batteries?

: e h

les EVs are much cheaper to build. Even short range EVs are more than the long range bicycles (5 miles?) anyway.

aining about the cost of charging because he can't bypass the expensive cha rgers on his longer trips.

l buy hybrids rather than such limited battery vehicles. I have driven mor e than 50 miles in a day with local driving.

few people who will buy such limited vehicles. But mainstream will want s omething a bit more practical, like 100 mile or 150 mile range. The Nissan Leaf shows such vehicles are not completely impractical until recently bei ng the highest selling EV in the US. But that's all early adopters and nei ther the Leaf nor the Tesla model 3 accurately reflect what will be mainstr eam in 10 years as the wider public are buying EVs en masse. I don't reall y know what EV configuration will be the ultimate winner. I just know it w ill be an EV.

e a Bolt and it's not a bad car... at all. With a 200 mile range it's at t he top end of your limited range EV. The model 3 is just too much competit ion for it. That and GM just can't match Tesla in imagination. The Bolt i s very much a Chevy and will always be one.

The Bolt is basically a Korean car with a US-made body.

Best regards, Spehro Pefhany

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ersion-obrist/

g it to a Leaf is just stupid. lol

eteriorate faster than Tesla. Just wondering what they are going to do wit h the Tesla batteries. I don't think they can buy a Tesla without the batt eries anyway.

energy than regular 18650, but need liquid cooling and heavy metal to prote ct them. So, passive cooling packs might be lighter overall.

space, but lighter.

car or are you running an inverter to charge the car off of 120VAC?

aptop and other stuffs, and charge the main batteries in emergency.

do strange things. I should let them meet you.

Strange to jump through all the gymnastics that you do rather than just get a car with a reasonable battery.

But yes, dragging 12 volt batteries around to run your laptop... is one of them. Why can't you plug the laptop into the wall? Is this to use while y ou are solar charging your car for hours instead of driving where you are g oing? I guess running the laptop would suck up most of the solar power?

--

  Rick C. 

  ++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
  ++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209