That's the basic concern:
- It's an A/H1N1 strain, somewhat related to the one which caused the 1918 "Spanish Flue" three-wave pandemic (which also "started small", as do all pandemics), and
- It's novel: its coat protein structure is different enough from flu viruses to which people have previously been exposed, that it's unlikely that very many people have substantial immunity to it, and
- There is currently no vaccine effective against it, and
- It has shown itself capable of reasonably efficient human-to- human transmission. The good news is that so far, this particular strain's lethality isn't particularly high (except perhaps at its original focus in Mexico), and it does seem to be sensitive to two of the most common antivirals. I saw a report this morning which indicated that this strain seems to lack the specific mutation present in the 1918 strain which caused it to be as lethal as it was (triggering an immune overreaction which damaged the lungs of many of its previously-robust-and-healthy adult victims).
The bad news is that previous pandemics (e.g. 1918, and 1957 and 1958 if I recall correctly) also started out with a relatively mild first wave... followed by a second wave a few months later which had a much higher lethality rate among its victims... presumably due to a mutation in the virus population.
We can *hope* that this H1N1 strain doesn't mutate into a more dangerous form over the next year or so. If that's what happens, this incident may not turn out to be all that much worse than a typical bad year for a (non-novel) seasonal flu. It might blow itself out, as the SARS epidemic did a few years ago... that one never achieved pandemic status IIRC.
However, if it *does* mutate into a more dangerous form, as has occurred in several past pandemics, things could get very nasty... not just because it's more dangerous to patients, but because its genetic novelty means that most people will be susceptible to infection.
Given the strain's novelty, and its (albeit fairly distant) genetic relationship to the 1918 A/H1N1 strain, I don't think that the caution and concern being expressed by WHO and CDC is excessive, and I don't think it qualifies as a "distraction" on anyone's part. The
1918/1919 pandemic is now estimated to have killed 30-50 million people, worldwide... populations are higher now, infections can travel faster... it could get nasty.Here's hoping it does not!