Famous Probability example- what is it?

The Monty Python problem... oops.. make that Monty Hall.

George H.

Sounds like Bayesian prediction.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

I think it's called the "goat problem" or something like it.

robert

Famous? Where? On an IHOP place setting mat?

Well, Erdos is supposed to be a super-mathematician of some sort - a large publishing history. So, there is a problem in probability with weird twist, and he did not get it. Given Erdos's eccentric life-style, it may indeed have been an IHOP. He never had a home, nor stayed long in one place. jb

• It bounces when it sees itself because it gets scared..

NOT "non-intuitive" as far as i am concerned; change is fairly obvious.

On Thursday, 30 January 2014 12:04:23 UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wro te:

e:

Paul Erd?s is famous enough that I've heard of him repeatedly, and I d on't hang out with mathematicians

Mathematicians are alleged to rate themselves by their Erd?s Number - which is one if you published with Paul Erd?s as a co-author, two if y ou published with one of Paul Erd?s's numerous (509) co-authors, and s o on down. It's supposed to be difficult for a real mathematician to have a n Erd?s Number higher than eight.

Paul Erd?s was good, and well-liked, so it's something of an affection ate joke.

I can't - off-hand - thinks of an electronics equivalent.

rote:

ote:

don't hang out with mathematicians

- which is one if you published with Paul Erd?s as a co-author, two if you published with one of Paul Erd?s's numerous (509) co-authors, and so on down. It's supposed to be difficult for a real mathematician to have an Erd?s Number higher than eight.

onate joke.

I lost all respect for the Erdos number crap when I read this pos is a 6:

you mean HE HOPped around..

rote:

ote:

don't hang out with mathematicians

- which is one if you published with Paul Erd?s as a co-author, two if you published with one of Paul Erd?s's numerous (509) co-authors, and so on down. It's supposed to be difficult for a real mathematician to have an Erd?s Number higher than eight.

onate joke.

Looks like people are confusing the relative frequency interpretation of pr obability with random experimental outcome. On any individual show, the pla yer only has one chance, he is not allowed to replay, so the laws of probab ility are out except in gauging the chances the prize is behind one of two remaining doors. The outcome space he's dealing with is CGG, GCG or GGC, al l of which have equal chance of occurrence. So using the youtube video exam ple, his chances are 50/50.

Thirty years or so ago there was a joke running around to the effect that you could rate a mathematician by his 'Erdos number'. The number was defined as 0 if you were Erdos, 1 if you'd published a paper with him, 2 if you'd published a paper with somebody who had published one with him, and so on. (My fourth year PDE prof told me about it.)

(BTW for those who haven't heard it pronounced, it's something like "Airdoosh".)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

They covered the Monty Hall problem on the Skeptics Guide to the Universe. It has been a while since I heard it, but here is the link:

Well that is just the Kevin Bacon effect isn't it?

It's just a bit of mathematician fun anyway.

No it doesn't, It has to be someone who knows. just do the arithmetic.

Saw this puzzle on TV (Fermat's Room (2007)):

The mother is 6 years older than the son in 6 years he will be 5 times younger than the mother. What is the father doing?

(again, mostly a matter of arithmetic)

om, but i can only remember bits and pieces of it:

of further hits in a non-intuitive way.

ery." -Feynman, QED

The so-called "solution" to this simple-minded problem is reminiscent of th e joke about the airline pilot caught bringing a bomb onboard the aircraft. When asked why he did it, his response was he had been told by security ex perts that the chance of two people bringing a bomb onboard any given fligh t were phenomenally small, so he carried a bomb with him ever since.

Exactly, what is the 'famous probability example" - how does the statement read.

Den onsdag den 29. januar 2014 14.37.30 UTC+1 skrev snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com:

a game show with three doors, behind one of the doors is a price,

you pick a door, the host then opens a door to an empty room and ask if you want to change your choice to the last unopened door or keep your initial choice

you should change your choice

your first pick is 1/3 changing your choice is 2/3

-Lasse

Except they ain't. If we're talking about the same thing here (I don't know what video you are referring to).

robert