Yes, which is why it's disappointing that nobody seems to be discussing damping mechanisms, or anything else that will improve the markets or the economy in the long term.
With no available credit, we're heading into a depression.
It will, however, be labeled as "W's fault", so the Dems don't care, the graft will be successfully distributed to the faithful (*)
(*) The "faithful" are NOT the public
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona 85048 Skype: Contacts Only | |
| Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat |
| E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
Think things are bad now? Wait until Obama "takes care" of you.
Damping mechanism are applied such as interest rates and taxing polices. But they can only go so far. Right now we are fresh out of interest rates, but there is still some give in taxes. But, taxes should not be lowered during times of up swing as was done essentially taking the damping off.
Since the system is unstable, application of stimulus, damping and other corrections must be judiciously applied as required to smooth the system. response. Which is to say what is needed today is not what will be needed tomorrow. Unfortunately most politicians of all stripes get in ruts and think their philosophy always applies. That thinking exacerbates the instabilities often making things worse than they might otherwise be.
Right now we need stimulus that crates jobs. But it is inevitable that the resultant spending will create inflation. The trick will be to modulate it in such a way that it works but is not over done.
Yes, that is one loop in the system. However, there are 100 other loops, many with positive feedback and all with time delays. That creates an unstable oscillatory system the closest analog being a chaotic oscillator, look it up. All you have to do is look at the results of boom and bust cycles, panics, recessions, the great depression, boom times and bubbles to see that it is wildly oscillatory. What are you blind?
The problem is that greed has a slower time constant than fear, and nobody has sufficient long-term memory. So, every generation, more or less, we get a slow greed-driven ramp up to unrealistic valuations, and an inevitable fast ramp down when the smart money figures they've got all they can, or some other event trips the crash. It's a relaxation oscillator.
Tax policy could help here. Or control theory, even. Find me a politician who understands control theory.
You are, I think, talking about active macroeconomic interventions to damp the loop. That's unlikely to work, and certainly won't work forever, because politics will screw it up. Better would be long-term policies that damp things at the individual transaction level. Like high taxes on short-term investments, even for non-profits and pension funds. Or transaction fees. Or prohibiting the bundling and resale of mortgages. Things like that, things that will work automatically in the background.
The stimulus is just more borrowing with funny money, said act being the cure for too much borrowing with funny money.
I know. I know. I still think like an 18 year-old... then I falls asleep ;-)
...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona 85048 Skype: Contacts Only | |
| Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat |
| E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |
AGW = Al Gore\'s Witchcraft
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