Dirty Bomb, how bad?

> Jim Thomps>>>> Spehro Pefhany wrote...

>>>> >>>>> FEMA anticipated 9/11 and the New Orleans hurricane as two of their >>>>> three top most likely major disasters. Still one to go (massive >>>>> earthquake in San Francisco). They're batting .666, so to speak. >>> >>> They didn't/don't anticipate a small dirty nuclear explosion? >>> With the required semi-permanent evacuation of a large city? >> >> Win, You need to read up on the real facts on "dirty" bombs. >> The street talk is grossly exaggerated. > > Just surfing on "dirty bomb"...

Thanks Jim, for the links. I've added a few comments on each, or excerpted some relevant quotes from them.

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A more mild assessment than the others below, "quickly leave the immediate area, or go inside until being further advised. Subsequent decontamination of the affected area could involve considerable time and expense."

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"In the past eight years, 175 cases have been recorded worldwide of nuclear materials (not bombs) being smuggled out of former Soviet territories and other countries."

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"the area struck would be off-limits for at least several months ? possibly years ? during cleanup efforts, which could paralyze a local economy and reinforce public fears about being near a radioactive area."

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Message: get-the-hell-outta-there. They don't say for how long.

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"A test explosion and subsequent calculations done by the DoE found that assuming nothing is done to clean up the affected area and everyone stays in the affected area for 1 year, the radiation exposure would be "fairly high".

"Because a terrorist dirty bomb is likely to cause few deaths, many do not consider one to be a weapon of mass destruction. Its purpose would presumably be to create psychological, not physical, harm through mass panic and terror. Additionally, decontamination of the affected area might require considerable time and expense, rendering affected areas unusable, and causing extensive economic damage."

NOTE: "Rendering affected areas unusable." It would appear my phrase "required semi-permanent evacuation of a large city" may not be as exaggerated as Jim claims, but I'd be very happy to be corrected with a more detailed analysis, provided it's believable.

Maybe Jim objects to my term, "large city," but consider. If a portion of the city is declared off limits, who wants to live or work in the block immediately next to the off-limit line? And in the block next to that? In fact, who would want to live in the city at all, given a choice? Wouldn't that be a common reaction?

Maybe I'd be tempted to go run my business there, because of the cheap yet perhaps high-quality buildings, but wouldn't I have more trouble getting and keeping good employees? We constantly live now with new cases of cancer discovered in our friends and neighbors, and a steady stream of cancer deaths. So, consider, what would be my eventual psychological reaction and fear level to a steady stream of new cases of cancer if I was living and working near an off-limits contaminated area? What after several of my employees get cancer? Wouldn't I eventually come down with a bad case of the hebbie-jebbies and leave, taking my company with me? Wouldn't I tell all my acquaintances of my choice? I'm sure we'd see a stream of news reports of one case after another like that. Being told we had statistically-normal cancer levels wouldn't work.

The possibility of a dirty-bomb attack is not an issue to be taken lightly; it could be very painful to us as a society. In addition to the added fear, I'd expect to see a considerable further loss of personal freedom and privacy in its aftermath. I'd also expect to see further politicizing of various new issues and severe division in the country. We'd just be better off skipping the whole mess.

Of course, skipping the whole mess is only to a limited extent our choice. But what we can choose is to be truly ready, with tested plans that minimize the societal bad experience, and thus minimize the damaging psychological reaction. That's why I was surprised that FEMA's three top most likely major disasters were 9/11, the New Orleans hurricane, and a massive California earthquake. I'd be more comfortable if they had a top four list, and were trained and ready to deal effectively with a small dirty nuclear explosion.

--
 Thanks,
    - Win
Reply to
Winfield Hill
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The 'dirty bomb' idea has been considered in the UK.

The damage it'll cause is apparently quite limited. Of course that doesn't stop ppl make scary docu-dramas about such an event.

It turns out that a heavy rainfall would wash away most of the problem.

FEMA's choices were therefore quite valid.

Graham

Reply to
Pooh Bear

I read in sci.electronics.design that Pooh Bear wrote (in ) about 'Dirty Bomb, how bad?', on Sat,

10 Sep 2005:

Don't you believe it. How often has it rained in Cumbria since Chernobyl? The Cs137 is still there.

--
Regards, John Woodgate, OOO - Own Opinions Only.
If everything has been designed, a god designed evolution by natural selection.
http://www.jmwa.demon.co.uk Also see http://www.isce.org.uk
Reply to
John Woodgate

Rain on grassland is rather different to paved streets where the material will wash away.

Graham

Reply to
Pooh Bear

I read in sci.electronics.design that Pooh Bear wrote (in ) about 'Dirty Bomb, how bad?', on Sat,

10 Sep 2005:

I wish you were right. Think about the contaminant binding chemically to the road surface materials.

--
Regards, John Woodgate, OOO - Own Opinions Only.
If everything has been designed, a god designed evolution by natural selection.
http://www.jmwa.demon.co.uk Also see http://www.isce.org.uk
Reply to
John Woodgate

As long as you kept your bicycle out of Hobson's Conduit you'd be ok.

Reply to
richard mullens

Well..... If it does that you can tear up the road surface. Where there's a will....

Graham

Reply to
Pooh Bear

There is a shady lawyer willing to break it.

--
?

Michael A. Terrell
Central Florida
Reply to
Michael A. Terrell

No need to go to the expense of an atomic bomb to disable a city.

Just empty a load of cyanide into the local reservoir.

If you MUST use explosives, blow up a power pylon.

There's no need to commit suicide.

Reply to
Reg Edwards

a

There's also the short term effect on water - anyone know how many times the water in London gets recycled before "replacement"? All that filtering equipment will likely be trashed as well.

Regards Ian

Reply to
Ian

until the rest of the world ran out of BS.

with very high buildings and a dense population.

bio or radiological bomb target.

Ana...

Charlie

Reply to
Charlie Edmondson

... don't surf...

I'd save Silicon Valley for a whole slew of carbombs at the most expensive fabs.

Dirk

--
Dirk

The Consensus:-
The political party for the new millenium
http://www.theconsensus.org
Reply to
Dirk Bruere at Neopax

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All, we already have an example of a large dirty bomb. It is called Chernoble. Take a look at the current "no go" zones.

--
JosephKK
Reply to
JosephKK

Perhaps you might want to look at the facts, then go look at how late you are to the party (month and a half, as I see the thread).

--
  Keith
Reply to
keith

That's all you can say?

IIRC, nobody in last month's thread addressed the point I made in my last paragraph above, which encapsulates my primary concern.

We learned in the New Orleans levee break that spending one billion now can save spending hundreds of billions later. Of course, choices have to be made about where to spend the preventative billion here and there. But with respect to a small terrorist dirty bomb, many experts say it's not if, but when, we'll suffer such an attack.

If we not only had plans and training exercises, but public drills, with rational discussion, etc., perhaps we could gain as a society a less emotional, more reasoned understanding, and much of our perhaps excessive fear of such an event might be dealt with in advance. The damaging effects of such an attack could be partially mitigated, so in the end its impact and our lasting loss would not be as great.

So, yes, I do fault FEMA for dropping the ball on this issue. And the rest of Bush's increasingly-erratic government and his putative "homeland security" department as well. Maybe if this was presented as another private-enterprise effort... a multi-billion Halliburton no-bid-contract opportunity, Cheney and the others would champion it.

--
 Thanks,
    - Win
Reply to
Winfield Hill

Is that like, "It was Christmas and everyone was feeling Mary" ?:-)

...Jim Thompson

--
|  James E.Thompson, P.E.                           |    mens     |
|  Analog Innovations, Inc.                         |     et      |
|  Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems  |    manus    |
|  Phoenix, Arizona            Voice:(480)460-2350  |             |
|  E-mail Address at Website     Fax:(480)460-2142  |  Brass Rat  |
|       http://www.analog-innovations.com           |    1962     |
             
I love to cook with wine.      Sometimes I even put it in the food.
Reply to
Jim Thompson
[snip

Win, You need to get a life. Plus all that venom stored up inside of you has to be bad for your health.

...Jim Thompson

-- | James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens | | Analog Innovations, Inc. | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | Phoenix, Arizona Voice:(480)460-2350 | | | E-mail Address at Website Fax:(480)460-2142 | Brass Rat | |

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| 1962 | I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.

Reply to
Jim Thompson

I have a fine life, which you know little about. And, contrary to the claim I'm filled with hate, that's simply not so. You and your friends love to throw mud like that, instead of dealing with the factual issues I raise. But I do pay attention to what's going on here and in the world, and it does distress me. Sometimes I wonder what kind of blinders you're wearing.

--
 Thanks,
    - Win
Reply to
Winfield Hill

I'm not aware of Clinton making this a big issue either. But of course, that was before 9-11.

Chernobyl was not in the middle of Manhattan.

WRONG. From where do you get that mean idiotic remark??

No, it's you looking for the one sentence you can use to turn it into a left-wing idiocy argument, as you love to do whenever GW Bush's name comes up. WRONG, it's a FEMA issue, and I'd love to be as sanguine as you about the minimal problem you imagine the dirty-bomb issue to be, and the excellent preparedness you imagine FEMA to have for it. Let's pray we all never have to go through the real thing to find out who's correct.

--
 Thanks,
    - Win
Reply to
Winfield Hill

Randy? Who is he?

Best regards, Spehro Pefhany

--
"it\'s the network..."                          "The Journey is the reward"
speff@interlog.com             Info for manufacturers: http://www.trexon.com
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Reply to
Spehro Pefhany

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