AGW "experts" - Know Thyselves

To add some levity to this harangue... my mother died in 1995 during valve replacement surgery... everyone signal thumbs-down for Slowman... that'll sure shut him up ;-) ...Jim Thompson

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That wasn't the intent.

Your thinking is as slow, and limited, as ever. What was the global consequence of the price increase you cite?

Notice that C What's the immediate global consequence?

Mark L. Fergerson

I'd like to see a climatologist create a computer simulation that can predict how long it will take to melt an ice cube in a glass of water that is under a 150 Watt infrared heat lamp to an accuracy of +/-

This would be a very simple system and yet I bet it could not be done.

But this is exactly what is being claimed by the AGW folks.

Mark

I have been through op-amp audio amplifier applications "basically working but not quite right" and upon closer examination (poke in scope probe) turning out to have a stage or two oscillating.

It appears to me that it's not too hard to have an op-amp amplifier stage oscillate and still have the DC component of its output track the resistance of the thermocouple. Not that I find that acceptable since one should get the op-amps to not oscillate. However, my analogy here is that the oscillation is weather and DC component of the output of the op-amp is climate.

- Don Klipstein ( snipped-for-privacy@misty.com)

Small point: thermocouples make voltage, microvolts per Kelvin.

Not that I find that acceptable since one

If an opamp oscillates, its DC performance goes to hell. Many systems couple across wide time scales.

However, my analogy here is that

And the oscillation trashes the DC signal.

Weather affects albedo, circulation, heat transport, ocean currents, dust levels, cloud cover, all sorts of things that are important to climate. The AGW arguments are heavily dependent on feedbacks, and weather affects those feedbacks.

The real difference between weather and climate models is that it's obvious that weather models aren't predictive on time scales from days to years. Climate models are untested as far as their predictability, by virtue of the chosen time scales. That's hardly an argument that weather is unpredictable but climate is.

It's as if all demonstrably useless models are defined to predict "weather" and somehow models whose predictions are so far out as to be untestable are "climate" models.

Looks like there *is* a God

and She has a sense of humor.

John

I'm counting.

Jon

The first nonlinear control system I ever simulated was a 32,000 horsepower turbine driving an 80,000 ton ship. And it worked as expected.

What's your background in dynamic system simulation?

John

We are making some progress then. As a general rule scientists are trying their level best to figure out how the universe works and to model it. The vast majority of climate scientists are doing a good job and the evidence they have collected and presented is convincing to most other scientists. There are a few genuine sceptics too.

Exxon has done an incredible job of public disinformation.

And I have to say that UK Climate Scientists have not done a good job of communicating their work to the general public in the same way that for example Professor Brian Cox does for HEP or Professor Sir Martin Rees does for astronomy. Either of them would have been a better choice as technical spokesman to explain complexity of Climate Change in simple terms on Wednesdays Newsnight feature.

The lady who did the practical experiment was good - that is hard in a kitchen sink environment. But then we had the superannuated pen pusher David King whose monotonous voice, tedious presentational style and failure to cover obvious questions in the public mind was quite honestly depressing. He simply failed to present the right evidence.

Either of Cox or Rees would have done a much better job. The guy who stood up for CRU on R4s PM programme would have been another choice.

You can watch Cox box Kings ears on Newsnight over the LHC.

I don't hold out much hope for the Bliar enquiry. But he has the defence that "God told him to do it" much like Dubya. In any other walk of life hearing voices in your head telling you to go out and kill people would be a good reason to be locked up for the public protection but not so for the leaders of nations. We (the UK) were bloody lucky that Iraq did not have WMD since I doubt if our troops were given the right gear.

In the UK politicians are not all that bad. I have met quite a few over the years and they are mostly good people - there are a few bad apples too. The UK consensus among politicians is a lot more productive than the bipolar disorder that the US suffers from. They should scrap one of the party names since they take opposite positions on almost everything.

Republicans and Snacilbuper or Democrats and Starcomed take your pick!

Regards, Martin Brown

He might make a couple quarts of bio diesel, though. ;-)

Sloman would have won a gold medal if they hadn't canceled the 'Bozo Olympics'.

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Because the oscillations involved are only limited by the hard non- linearities of the op amp involved, which is to say the outputs either clamp to one or other voltage rail, or run out of current drive.

Sure. But while weather is unpredictable in detail, it gets a lot more predictable when dealt with in bulk. If rainfall didn't tend to average out to be much the same from season to season, farming would be impractical.

Climate models can be tested against historical data. It isn't a particularly nice test, since one can obviously tweak a model to fit any particular set of data, but serious investigators are aware of this.

And the existence of agriculture is obvious evidence that climate is tolerably predictable from year to year

Climate models are only untestable in the sense that John Larkin can't think up a way to test them. Happily, the people who make it their business to work on these kinds of models don't suffer from your lack of imagination.

She's been exercising her sense of humour by dumping a load of snow somewhere in Europe every December since I've lived there. I personally find your persistent incapacity to see the difference between weather and climate to be a good deal more comical.

Any time now and you will start telling us that Johnson noise and 1/f noise are the same thing.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

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Viscount Christopher Monckton has pushed that point of view. Since Monckton's opinions on global warming are misleading and deceptive

I think I'll go along wth the opinion of the Nobel Peace Prize committee.

If you restrained yourself to buying Exxon-Mobil's nice tanks of gasoline, you'd show good judgement. Their self-interested opinions about global warming are poor value, even when offered free and for nothing, since they label the suckers who buy into them as a gullible ignorami.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

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That's not my cardiologists opinion. I'm afraid that as a cardiologist, you have about the same credibility as you have as a climate expert, which is to say that I'd be better off listening to a random noise generator.

If you are trying to tell me that I should be more tolerant of Graham's nonsense, and by implication, your own, I can only suggest that you and Graham should take up spouting nonsense on less important subjects.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

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In Europe some people can get a percutaneous aortic valve replacement, put in a with a catheter in the same way that I just had contrast material injected into my heart for cine-angiography of the coronary arteries - none of mine seemed to be blocked (unlike Jim), which may make me a candidate for the less invasive operation.

The risk of death or serious complication in conventional aortic valve replacement surgery is between 1 and 5%, depending on age and health. I'm probably at the low end of the scale, so Jim shouldn't buy in too much champagne in hopeful anticipation.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Hardly ever. Most opamp oscillations are relatively small, limited by the finite current fed into the front-end diff pair. In plain English, the hf gain is very nonlinear on amplitude so the oscillations stay small. Not many opamps can slew rail-to-rail anywhere near their Ft.

Why do I have to explain stuff this simple?

John

Not after they become political advocates and media superstars.

John

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Because you don't understand the complicated stuff? Because you need the practice? Because you cannot stop?

-- Joe

Go ahead and spent the rest of your life being an ass and permutating the same small set of pompous insults. We're going to get a lot more done and have a lot more fun than you are.

Gotta study up for a design review, a 16-channel digitizer that The Brat just finished laying out. It's going to be a beautiful board.

John

The alarmist defence aga /quote

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961?90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that

/end quote

Their climate scientists can predict for a year or less but we are to believe a 10 year lack of warming could not be predicted.